The Sway Bar: NASCAR Draftkings Plays, Fades and Values for the Phoenix Fall 2018

Only two races remain in the 2018 NASCAR season and the drama has never been higher. This weekend we head out west to Phoenix, a flat track that tends to be boom or bust in terms of entertainment value. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.

Top Plays

Kevin Harvick – What is the best lock on the market? Well it’s irrelevant now because Kevin Harvick is now the number one lock of all time. This race will combine the three most dangerous forms of Harvick – Pole Sitting Harvick, Phoenix Harvick, and Pissed Harvick. Harvick had his Texas victory taken away thanks to some “creative car manipulation” and he has been walking around with a chip on his shoulder all weekend. He put down a blistering qualifying lap that put him on the pole, and he is at his best track – by far. A 60% win rate in his last 10 tries, and a 100% top six rate – Harv is just a machine here. Can you fade him? Sure. But I’m not going to. I think Harvick DOMINATES this race with retaliative ease.

Kyle Busch – After Harv, everything gets a lot more fuzzy. If there is a second best – I would have to say it was Kyle Busch. A consistent top ten finisher at Phoenix, KB bring top 5 long and short run speed to the track this weekend. He starts in the deadzone (6th) but he is the most likely position to gain dominator points outside of Harv.

Aric Almirola – It is win or go home for Almirola this weekend, but luckily it is at a track that he has been pretty good at in the past. He looked pretty stout in practice, and of course has that Ford motor to lean on. He starts 18th, so he doesn’t need to dominate to be in the optimal. I really like this pick.

Daniel Suarez – Suarez is much better than he qualified (26th) and Phoenix is arguably his best track. I thing Daniel can compete for a top ten, and a position in the optimal.

 

Worth Mentioning

Jimmie Johnson, Martin Truex Jr, and Kyle Larson are all worth a look this week and offer a trip off the chalk. I like Brad K and Joey Logano too – but only if you believe Harvick will find trouble.

Value Plays

William Byron – Byron starts 19th, but appears to have legit top ten speed. He finished 12th here in the spring (one of his first cup races ever) and has improved SO much since then. He is a shade underpriced, so I think he is worth a flyer.

Ryan Newman – Phoenix is a great track for Newman – its hard to pass at Phoenix, its near impossible to pass Ryan Newman at Phoenix. He starts 22nd and I suspect he will only move forward. A great play this weekend.

Ty Dillon – Ty brought some speed this weekend, and save for an outlier this spring – has run fairly well at Phoenix. He starts 28th  – which is a little higher than I would like – but he can easily compete in the top 20 if he stays out of trouble.

DJ Kennington – Punt of the week. I think the 7 car should try and go the distance, if they do it should be positive place differential.

So there it is folks. We will be talking more strategy on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.