The Sway Bar: NASCAR Draftkings Fades and Values for Homestead

White flag is in the air and we have just one race left this year. What a tremendous year it has been, and what a week it will be! As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.

Top Plays

Kyle Busch –  Well most sportsbooks say Kevin Harvick is the favorite to win the title, I think Kyle Busch has a much clearer path to victory. He rolls off second, but should be out front fairly quickly. Homestead is one of Busch’s better tracks – which is really saying something, and his car is atleast as good as anyone in the field.

Joey Logano – Logano had the best car in final practice – both in single lap and ten lap speed. While Joey has never won at Homestead, he always runs well – no matter what his place in the championship is. I reckon you can get a pretty good deal on Joey, ownership wise, and though he carries the longest betting odds to win this weekend – I think he is a a great DFS play.

Kyle Larson – Don’t be turned off by Larson’s practice times – he is the best Homestead driver and it isn’t close. He will be screaming along the wall all afternoon, and will be nearly unstoppable on the long run. If the Truck and xFinity races taught us anything – there will be no shortage of long runs. He starts 11th, but could easily dominate this race while the championship four race for second place.

Kevin Harvick – The 4 team is up to something. I can’t prove it – but you don’t dominate all year and suddenly lack speed in the most important race of the season. I reckon this team will be mighty competitive come crunch time. Don’t leave Harv out of your lineups based on his poor performances thus far this weekend.

Clint Bowyer – Starts 26th. Homestead has been tough on him in the past, but I suspect a top 15 will be pretty attainable for Clint. This is close to a lock.

Worth Noting

I find it hard to play Denny Hamlin this weekend. He willingly gave up the best pit stall to Kyle Busch, so its clear there are team orders at play. I would hazard to guess that JGR would much rather see Hamlin play security guard in second place.

Value

William Byron – Byron starts 28th, and well he didn’t practice much better than that you can not ignore a B level car starting that far back. Byron is a near lock.

Ty Dillon – Dillon never qualifies well at Homestead but always runs well. He can get a lot out of a car on a long run, and that should be the case this weekend.

Daniel Suarez – In Saurez’ last ride in JGR equipment, he will roll off 18th. His speed wasn’t much better than top fifteen in practice, but he did seem very stable. Homestead has been good to Daniel in other series, and I expect it will be a low risk race as Suarez looks to finish his tenure off strong.

Ross Chastain – Punt of the week. Ross starts dead last and SHOULD attempt the entire race. He gives you a lot of room to get some higher priced guys in your lineup.

So there it is folks, we will talk again in Feburary. It’s been a pleasure – lets end strong! We will be talking more strategy on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock, and thats what it will be all about this week. Strategy. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.