The Prime-Time slates are one of my favorite slates to play during the NFL season. The size of the tournament that you are playing in will determine how risky and creative you will need to be in order to take 1st place. To win a single entry or contests under 2,000 entrants does not require you to get off the wall. Meaning that you do not need to have the 1% off the wall play in order to win. For me, it is all about playing the players in the best possible spots. Game theory becomes more important as the size of the tournament increases. Your lineup should tell a story of how you think these games will pan out. In this article, I will break down this slate by position, giving you the best plays in each spot along with a couple of low owned plays.
Prime-Time Breakdown By Position
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers is my favorite option at QB on this slate. This game has the larger game total of the two on this slate. I like him a lot more on Draftkings where he is priced under Cousins and Watson. However, on FD he is far more expensive than the other two top options. I prefer to play Rodgers on DK, but is a solid play on FD as well. The Vikings are 3.5 point favorites, that suggests that the Packers should be trailing for a portion of this game and Rodgers playing from behind has been magic this whole season. The potential 300-yard bonus for Rodgers on DK and factoring his price is why he is the top option on Draftkings. In MME on DK, I would use a 45-40-15 split between Rodgers, Cousins, and Watson.
Kirk Cousins Could very well be the highest owned QB on this slate on both sites. Especially on FD where he is the lowest priced among the top QB’s. Game Log watchers will see his dominant performance from the last time he faced the Packers defense and pencil him in off the bat. While he is a great play, let’s not forget that the Packers made 5 field goals that game. There is a lot of room for improvement for Rodgers. With all that being said, if you are playing on FD fire up Cousins and let it ride. In MME on FD, I would use a 50-30-20 split on Cousins, Rodgers, and Watson.
Deshaun Watson is the gpp play on this slate. His ownership should be much lower on both sites compared to both Cousins and Rodgers. The game total difference between the two games is a whole 6 points. What I do like about Watson is his ability to take over the game on the ground. His rushing upside is far superior to the other QB’s on this slate. The Titans pass defense is not as good as the numbers imply. I can see Watson being a part of all the touchdowns that the Texans score, but will it be enough to compete against two teams desperately needing to win in order to make it in the playoffs. That is the risk/reward you might need to take in order to win a gpp.
Running Back
Aaron Jones is the most expensive option on this slate. I am not a fan of the running backs at all on this slate, but Jones will get a lot of my exposure at RB on this slate. The Vikings run defense is good, but if Jones is used like how he was last weekend, he should be the highest or one of the highest scorers at his position on this slate. He should touch the ball at least 16 times in this game and is in the highest game total game on this slate. Everyone needs to play their A game in this one in order to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Dalvin Cook played the most snaps of his career last week. He did not play well, but the Packers are allowing on average 126 yards per game on the ground. He was also used in the passing game as well and has a lot of room for improvement in this game. He played okay the last time the Vikings and Packers played and this is a great opportunity to get Cook at a low ownership compared to some of the other backs on this slate. The Vikings are favored and are at home this week which helps me like Cook just a little bit more.
Lamar Miller is my favorite value option on this slate at this position. He should provide a safe amount of points on this slate. He provides a safe floor with upside. He should see a couple of targets in this game as well and if he can manage to get a couple red zone carries and find himself falling into the end zone he will probably be in the winning lineup as the top 2 priced RB’s are not all that great of plays.
Derek Henry and Dion Lewis are large field tournament options only. Both of these guys scare me a lot and for that reason, I can imagine them being low owned on this slate because who is going to want to play RBs against this Texans defense. I would keep your exposure to these guys at 20% or less, but they both deserve a spot in large field tournament lineups. Lewis can find himself in a situation where he is needed in the passing game and could make some moves and get a big play in this game. The Titans could find themselves at the goal line and Henry could pound it in the end zone each time they are in the red zone. These are very risky plays, but they could pay off in the end.
Wide Receiver
Stefon Diggs is my favorite option at WR on both sites. He has played great in the past 2 games he has been in and dominated in his last game against the Packers. The Packers secondary is not capable to keep up with the offensive firepower that the Vikings have to offer. Both Diggs and Thielen are excellent options, but given that he is one of the cheaper options among the top tier he will be a core piece in my lineups tonight. He should see 9 plus targets in this game and with that amount of volume he is a great play and should pay off very well.
Devante Adams has seen a 23% target rate this season and is the Packers top option for Rodgers to give the ball too. Pugs went over this matchup in his Draws article. Make sure you are reading his articles every week, he has been on fire this season covering WR/CB matchups this season. Xavier Rhodes is a good corner, but just like Pugs the Packers are in a must-win situation and they are going to need to rely on their best players and Adams is one of those WR that can be used against great corners. Another option in the WR corp is MVS as he should be extremely low owned on this slate due to his major disappointment last week.
Adam Thielen has been the best WR in NFL this season. He is averaging 101 yards receiving per game along with 8.5 catches per game. He should see plenty of targets in this game because just like Diggs, the Packers do not have anyone in their secondary that can hold Thielen down. Out of the 10 games, the Vikings have played, Thielen has received double-digit targets in all but 2 of them. He is in a fantastic spot and this Sunday night game will hold the majority of plays in my lineups on this slate.
DeAndre Hopkins is expensive on both sites but should be lower owned than the 3 receivers above. He is a contrarian gpp play on this slate. The game total is lower, but he is a top 5 receiver in the NFL and his talents need to be respected. He has been consistent all season long and the last time he went up against this Titans defense he went 6-110-1. The WR position is hard on this slate because there are so many top options and I personally do not believe that you could go wrong with any of these top 4 players. The orders I have these top 4 guys are my personal rankings and is how I would spread my ownership between these players.
Keke Coutee is a great value option on this slate. He did not play in the first meeting against the Titans this season, but Will Fuller dominated in this matchup and I can see Coutee putting up great results in this game. If they try to eliminate Hopkins, Coutee would benefit tremendously. I prefer him on Draftkings as he is not a guy who typically finds himself in the end zone.
Corey Davis and Tajae Sharpe are large field tournament plays only. I do not trust these guys with all of my money, but in these big tournaments where you need to get off the wall a bit, they are necessary to play because they should be low owned. Most people will play the Texans defense and will not want to play any Titans players against them. That is a fundamental lineup strategy that is instilled in DFS players, BUT on small slates, especially 2 game slates it is perfectly fine to have offensive players going up against the defense that you are playing. That is where we can make a difference in our lineups and put us in line to take down a gpp. Both of these players are on and off guys as they are not consistent with their production, but that is what makes for a good gpp play.
Tight End
Jimmy Graham is min priced on DK and if he suits up tonight he should be highly owned because of his price. He is on track to play and is a good option on FD as well even though is priced higher on that site. He has practiced in limited fashion, but reports from practice said that his ability to catch the ball has not been affected by his broken thumb. I am not sure I believe that, but being min priced on DK he is definitely worth a look. He was effective the last time these two teams played and if he sees his regular workload this week he will be a good play. Please keep an eye on the inactive report concerning this game. If Graham does not suit up I would not use the next man in line and just up my ownership on the next two players.
Jonnu Smith is a much safer and reliable option to go to on this slate. If you are not feeling Jimmy Graham, which I totally understand. Smith should see a decent amount of targets and the Texans defense has had a hard time covering the TE position. I prefer Smith on FD, but on DK he makes for a great play as well. The Titans should be trailing in this game and he will be my highest owned TE on the slate.
Kyle Rudolph is a large field gpp play. The Packers are weakest in the secondary and I fully expect Diggs and Thielen to provide most of the receiving stats on this Vikings offense. However, he should be the lowest owned among the 3 TE and is worth a couple of shots in large field tournaments. He has not lived up to his preseason hype and has not had a good week since week 5 and has only had 2 great weeks. One of them being against the Packers where went 5-48-1.
Defenses
Texans defense will be the chalky option on this slate. This is good chalk, that is definitely edible. The Titans are not good and their offensive line is not equipped to deal with the pass rush that the Texans will be deploying in this game. The Texans are going to get pressure on Mariota many times throughout this game and there should be plenty of opportunities for this defense to rack up sacks and possible turnovers.
Titans defense is the defense that I will have the most exposure to in large field tournaments. The Texans give up a good amount of sacks per game and Watson is throwing an interception for every 2 touchdowns he throws. Punting the DST spot in your lineups is the approach that I am taking in order to fit more studs in my lineups. It makes sense from an ownership perspective and the ability to fit more studs in your lineups. Out of the Packers and Vikings game, I would only play the Packers defense, but I prefer to use the Titans and Texans. A 45-40-15 split among the Titans, Texans, and Packers is how I am going about spreading my ownership among the defenses.
Final tips: It is perfectly okay to leave money on the table in your lineups. As I am building lineups, I am finding myself leaving off 300-1300 dollars in salary in a lot of my lineups. Many people will fill the need to use up all of their cap space and this is another strategy for these small slates that I love to use. While everyone is zigging you have to find spots to zag to leverage yourself against the field. This slate is weird because it is impossible to play the top 4 stud WR on either site and the RB options are not the best. This is where game theory comes into play and should be very important in order to take down a tournament. Choosing which position to use the flex spot on is tough on this slate because of the salaries. I prefer to use WR in the flex for the majority of my lineups on this slate. Make sure you give Geeks primetime slate breakdown a listen and use dfsupnorths showdown article to help you construct your lineups as well. We have amazing coaches here and should all be used to maximize your ability to take down any tournament.