Hello and welcome back. My name is FightOn2016 and I am a coach over at Beat The Bookie, primarily focusing on data analysis and building analytical models to help predict sports. This article will give you an insight into our NFL model and how we use it for DFS and for Sports betting for Week 10.
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Our College Football Model has been on fire. Over the last 2 months, we have gone 53-40 (57%) with an ROI of 60% on total bankroll.
Anyway, lets get into the good stuff. My NFL Model as you see below takes every game and runs a predicted score for each team based on about 20 factors that could impact the game, from injuries to a teams offense to the wind at the stadium.
As we have seen from Twitter, Baltimore does not know who their QB is so we do not have an accurate Vegas Line to judge our model on so that will come in an update later.
First, below are the top 5 teams that the Model expects to score the most points
No surprise to see the offensive juggernaut Saints up at number 1. They are expected to score 30 points on average this weekend which means I fully expect 4+ TDs. And most people in DFS will be playing them as well. Our Domination Station Projected Ownership puts Brees at 18%, Kamara at 25%, and Thomas at 22%. This is where a lot of chalk is going to be and I will have my fair share.
Next on the list is the Chargers who have seemingly been able to keep putting large chunks of points on the board week in and week out. They get Joey Bosa back this week which should help the defense shut down the Broncos, giving the offense more and better opportunities to put up points.
After that are the Panthers, Falcons, and Giants. If you want a really sneaky GPP play, go ahead and stack Eli and OBJ. They will be low owned and going against a defense that is swiss cheese.
Next, lets look at the biggest differences (positive) between My Model and Vegas
The top 2 are worth 1 or 2 shots. Vegas expects the Redskins to score 19.5 points, while our model expects them to score 21.9 points. There is value there to add a few Redskins to your player pool, but not worth the stack. Same goes with Raiders. Vegas has their Implied Team Total at 17.75 whereas our model is at 19.8. Nothing to get excited for in that number.
Like I said last week, when a team makes both of my lists, my ears perk up. We get 2 teams to make both lists this week. We have the Falcons. Vegas expects the Falcons to score 25.75 points and our model is putting them at 26.5 points. Below are the Projected Ownership numbers we get courtesy of the Domination Station:
- Matt Ryan – 11%
- Tevin Coleman – 8%
- Julio Jones – 20%
- Calvin Ridley – 5%
- Austin Hooper – 8%
Looking at DVOA, the Cowboys do a decent job at shutting down the number 1 WR, while the other WRs, TE, and RBs do well. A Ryan/Coleman/Ridley stack could very well win you a GPP.
Next on the list is the Chargers. Vegas expects the Chargers to score 26.75 points whereas our model expects them to score 27.3 points. Like I said earlier, getting Bosa back will help both the defense and the offense in this game. Their players are chalkier this week, but I will still have my fair share. Below are the projected ownerships courtesy of the Domination Station.
- Philip Rivers – 7%
- Melvin Gordon – 21%
- Keenan Allen – 2o%
Again, a little chalkier, but I will definitely have my fair share of all these players and I may game stack this game as my model expects this game to score 48 points, where Vegas thinks it will score 46.5 points.
Conclusion: GPP stacks are Atlanta, Los Angeles Chargers, and I will include the New York Football Giants in this list as well as I will likely have 10% of my lineups using this stack.
Sports Betting:
Bears -2.5
Mack is back on the attack. Last week, the Bears got a massive lead against the Lions only to squander it as the game goes on. Our model thinks they win by 4.5 and I fully expect them to win by a TD or more.
Colts -2
Last week we got screwed. We had Colts -3 and they had a halftime lead by 16. They did not score in the second half which I attribute to the Jaguars finally learning how to play defense and they will be scary from here on out. The Colts ended up winning by 3 and we get a favorable line here with them winning by 2 against the Titans who just came off their biggest win of the season. I expect them to come out slow against the Colts and allow the Colts to get a big lead early again.
Jaguars +5.5
Speaking of those Jaguars, I was really impressed with their defense in the second half last week. They now get a road version of Ben Roethlisberger that is not the same Big Ben at home. The Steelers will not have Bell for the rest of the season and I expect the Jaguars to make a statement game here saying that their defense is back.
That is it for me. Once again, if you have any interest in joining Beat The Bookie and working with us to beat Bookies across the world, then either follow the links at the beginning of this article or DM one of Loosmeister, myself, or Anthony P.
Good luck in your contests and betting.