Hello and welcome back. My name is FightOn2016 and I am a coach over at Beat The Bookie, primarily focusing on data analysis and building analytical models to help predict sports. This article will give you an insight into our NFL model and how we use it for DFS and for Sports betting for Week 10.
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Yesterday was a big day over at Beat The Bookie, my College Football Model went 6-2 on plays including a 4 team parlay. Massive day.
We also had a massive week last week in NFL nailing a parlay and an amazing 5 UNIT Teaser.
Anyway, lets get into the good stuff. My NFL Model as you see below takes every game and runs a predicted score for each team based on about 20 factors that could impact the game, from injuries to a teams offense to the wind at the stadium.
What you can see is it has the teams on the left hand side, then the model runs projected points on each team. We compare these numbers to what vegas believes each team will score in order to help us find the sneaky situations for us to attack.
First, below are the top 5 teams that the Model expects to score the most points
No surprise here that we have the Chiefs, Rams, Chargers, and Packers up top. The chalkier offenses will be chalky in my model as well. But the big surprise is that the Bears are number 5 on the list and not the Saints. My model is down on the Saints this week and has them projected for only 26.5 points (3.3 points less than what Vegas expects). Because of this, I will have very little exposure to them.
Next, lets look at the biggest differences (positive) between My Model and Vegas
The Jets and Bills are in an extremely slow paced, low scoring game so scoring 2.1 points more than expected is not anything to write home about. The biggest thing that catches my eye is the Bears at 3. When a team makes both of my two lists, they become one of my favorite plays of the day. Not only will the team likely score a lot of points, but they are also likely to be incrdibly sneaky. For instance, on DK the expected ownership on Bears players are:
- Trubisky 1.64%
- Cohen 3.5%
- Gabriel 2.4%
- Burton 5%
Those are some GPP winning numbers and what we look for. We expect this team to likely score 4 TDs in the game, but they are not priced like that at all. I will be stacking and game stacking this game.
The other teams I will be stacking are the chalk plays: Chiefs, Chargers, and Rams. I am also intrigued by the Colts at home against a defense that just traded away a DE for a pick and clearly do not know what they are doing.
Betting Tips for Week 10:
My three plays this week for Week 10 are: Colts -3, Bengals +6, and Bears -7
Colts -3
My model has Colts favored to win by 4.1 points. The Colts are coming off a bye week into what will be the healthiest they have been all season. There are no significant injuries on the team and I expect a potent offense led by a resurgent Andrew Luck to take care of business against the Jaguars.
Bengals +6
My model has the Bengals to only lose by 2.6 points. This play is on the basis of what my model expects out of the Saints today. They are coming off a massive game against the Rams. This is a classic let down spot in sports. They are looking good to secure home field advantage in the playoffs but have to travel out of their dome to chilly Cincinnati, Ohio for this game. I expect a sluggish start from the offense and for the Bengals to take care of business late.
Bears -7
My model has the Bears winning this game by 7.5 points. This play comes down to what I saw above. I saw a sneaky offense to stack in DFS and I love the Bears to get a win by 10 or 14 points in a big offensive day from Trubisky/Gabriel/Burton.
That is it for me. Once again, if you have any interest in joining Beat The Bookie and working with us to beat Bookies across the world, then either follow the links at the beginning of this article or DM one of Loosmeister, myself, or Anthony P.
Good luck in your contests and betting.