Hello, my name is Mark Paquette but you may know me better as @dfsmlbweather or @nfldfsweather on twitter. As we get later and later in the NFL season, weather generally becomes a bigger factor. With Thanksgiving Day’s games all indoors or in a retractable roof stadium, weather is not an issue. So let’s look at Sunday’s weather map from the Weather Prediction Center:
We have 2 possible trouble areas in the country that have NFL games (front near Tampa Bay and storm off the Northeast coast). Here is the expected precipitation in the Sunday through Tuesday time period:
Obviously, being this far out the weather forecast will change. Please keep in mind that in most NFL games the weather plays little/no role. You generally need an extreme weather event (ie. torrential rainfall, very strong winds, accumulating snow) to see meaningful impacts. We don’t really give a lot of credence to weather events. The exception being when The Weather Channel sends Jim Cantore out to report live from the stadium or we see cows flying around like in the movie Twister.
Games possibly impacted: Tampa Bay (lesser degree, not much rain if any rain expected during the game, ie. light green in the map above) to potentially bigger impacts in Buffalo, Baltimore, Philadelphia and New York (Jets) due to rain and wind (blues and reds mean heavy precipitation). Right now, it looks like most of these impacts in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions will not occur during the game. On a 1-4 scale with a 1 meaning little or no weather impacts while a 4 is extreme weather impacts, I would list Tampa Bay as a 1 while the other 4 locales would also be a 1 (based on the current timing that the games are dry) maybe a possible 2 if the rain lasts longer into Sunday afternoon. But, we keep vigilant because the minute we let our guard down, Jim Cantore shows up and tries to talk football.
Games I am Looking to Target
Cleveland at Cincinnati: A battle of poor defenses here. Bad defenses can, and often do, lead to fantasy goodness. Weather should be good outdoors for late November. An O/U of 48.
Seattle at Carolina: Love Russell Wilson’s ability to cause havoc with his feet and arm here. CAR gives up generous points to QBs, too. Weather looks great. An O/U of 47.
Miami at Indianapolis: Game is played indoors. Colts offense is running hot. One of the higher O/U totals of the week at 50-51.
San Francisco and Tampa Bay: Weather is a small concern here. Neither defense is great…the TB secondary is a dumpster fire. Neither team with anything to play for but draft position, which is of small concern. O/U of 54-55.
Week 12 DFS NFL Options by Position
Quarterbacks
Expensive – Andrew Luck ($6400 DK, 8400 FD): Luck has not been sacked in 5 games. With his offensive line offering him plenty of protection, he has responded with 17 TDs with only 4 picks. His minimum DK score has been 22.4 with a high of 28.7 over these games. You can see his floor is high. He takes on a Miami defense in climate-controlled Lucas Oil Stadium. Miami is 20th in the NFL giving up yards through the air at 250, 19th at passing TDs allowed at 18. At the same time, they are 29thin the league with only 17 sacks. Luck is currently 5th in the NFL with a total QBR of 72.8. Currently the O/U in this game is 50-51 with the Colts about a 10 point favorite. Vegas expects them to score about 30 points.
Mid-range – Russell Wilson ($5600 DK, 7700 FD): Carolina can be hurt through the air, giving up 254 yards per game with 23 TDs (3rd highest number in the NFL). Russell Wilson is 16th in total QBR at 59.0 and has been better on the road this season, with a higher quarterback rating, more yards per attempt, considerably higher rush yards and a 14 to 4 TD to INT ratio. Seattle is currently a 3 point road underdog and the game has an O/U of 47.
Cheap – Baker Mayfield ($5500 DK, 7500 FD): Cincinnati is at the bottom with 296 yards per game through the air and tied at 25th with 21 passing TDs given up. They have given up a NFL worst DK points allowed to opposing QBs according to the DFS Army’s research station. The current O/U in this game is 47.5 with Cincinnati being a 3-point favorite.
Related reading: Week 12 DFS Army podcast
Running Backs
Expensive – Melvin Gordon ($8600 DK, 8900 FD): When rostering Melvin Gordon, you are dependent on him scoring TDs. Arizona is tied for the 2nd worst team in the NFL in rushing TDs against, giving up 13 of them. Need yards from Gordon? Arizona is 29th with 141.5 rushing yards given up per game. Our research station states that they give up an average of 25 DK points per game to opposing RBs. We can hope for more than that from Gordon. With the Chargers being 12-13-point home favorites, he could clean up late.
Mid-range – Joe Mixon ($6800 DK, 7300 FD): Cleveland is 28th in the NFL at rushing yards allowed and has given up the most rushing TDs (14) in the league. A home favorite, Mixon has been over 20 rush attempts twice in the six games back from injury, with double digit attempts in all of them.
Cheap – Nick Chubb ($6300 DK, 7500 FD): The rookie could be considered mid-range just as much as Mixon. I want to highlight how much I like both players in this game. Statistically, Cincinnati’s rush defense can be considered just as bad (or even worse) than Cleveland’s. They have given up the most rushing yards per game (153.6) and are tied with Arizona with 13 rushing TDs allowed. We saw the week before the Browns bye week just how explosive Chubb could be, with the longest rushing TD in the history of the franchise.
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Wide Receivers
Expensive – Odell Beckham ($8800DK, 8500 FD): Drew Brees had his way with the Eagles secondary Sunday afternoon, but then again, who hasn’t been torched by Brees? Still, the Eagles have given up 277 yards per game through the air (26th in the league). Malcolm Jenkins looks slow and much of the rest of the Eagles secondary is made up untested rookies. With Philly a home favorite, expect the ball to be in the air often when the Giants have the ball.
Mid-range – T.Y. Hilton ($6500 DK, 7500 FD): That price on DK just seems criminal. As mentioned above in the Luck section, the passing game against Miami should have a field day. With the Colts’ offensive line not giving up sacks and Miami’s lack of ability to pressure the quarterback, Hilton should have time to get down the field on deep routes.
Cheap – Joe Ross ($4100 DK, 5600 FD): The speedster is just starting to receive consistent targets from Andy Dalton with 6 and 7 targets respectively the past 2 weeks. He has reached the end zone in each of the past 2 games. With A.J. Green certainly limited and possibly out with a painful toe injury, Ross will be a big part of a game plan in an expected high-scoring, close game. Cleveland is currently the 3rd worst team in the NFL in passing yards allowed, giving up a whopping 288 per game.
Related NBA Reading: 1st look FanDuel and DraftKings Advice
Tight Ends
Expensive – George Kittle ($6200 DK, 7500 FD): Tampa Bay is bad at defending the tight end. It is that simple. They are giving up a league-high 77.9 yards per game to opposing tight ends and 5 TDs. Kittle has seen 10, 4, 8 and 8 targets his last 4 games with 23 receptions (92 reception pace over a full season), 2 TDs and 344 yards. Playing in a game with the highest O/U on the Sunday slate, Kittle will get his numbers.
Mid-range – Vance McDonald (4300 DK, 5500 FD): McDonald has earned Big Ben’s trust with 27 targets, 17 receptions and 213 yards over the Steelers’ last 5 games. Denver gives up an average of 64 yards per game with 5 TDs to tight ends on the season. In an expected tight game (Pittsburgh is a 3-point favorite) with an O/U of 47, McDonald could win a GPP or 2.
Cheap – Ed Dickson (2600 DK, 4700 FD): Though only targeted once in each of the last two games, he has made the most of them with receptions in both attempts, including a game-winning TD against Green Bay. Carolina has given up a league high 9 TDs to tight ends with an average of 67.8 yards per game.
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To join us, it is a simple as 1, 2, 3: head on over to DFS Army today and use promo code WEATHER for an addition savings of 10% every month. Ask me any questions you may have via DM on twitter at @dfsmlbweather or @nfldfsweather.