Where Do I Begin?
I have created a strategy guideline for members to read and use for each specific weekly playbook for the NFL season. I would suggest opening it up and reading it prior to using the playbook below.
MME PLAYBOOK STRATEGY AND GUIDELINES!
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Week 9 Playbook
QUARTERBACK
Patrick Mahomes – The Chiefs are on pace to finish as the third highest scoring team in NFL history, sliding in just behind the 2007 Patriots and the 2013 Broncos. Mahomes has thrown 4 or more touchdowns in three straight games and has over 300 yards passing in 6 straight games. He also has scored more than 25 fantasy points in 6 of his 8 games this season and has a higher ceiling than anybody on the entire slate at the position and possibly overall. I see no reason not to pay up for him this week due to the plethora of cheap running backs and wide receivers in solid spots with plenty of upside. I am locking in 25 plus points from both Patrick and Cam and going from there. It’s a week where we can pay up at QB, TE, DEF as opposed to the other positions we normally target higher priced guys in.
Cam Newton couldn’t be in a better spot. Literally and figuratively speaking, it’s a perfect spot. The Buccaneers are absolutely horrendous on defense in so many ways and none more so than against opposing quarterbacks. The Buccs are allowing 333 yards per game through the air and a ridiculous 73.7% completion rate. Those are video game type numbers. Tampa also is giving up over 30 actual points per game and Cam Newton is having the most efficient season of his entire career. He has over a 65% completion rate and is top-3 in rushing yards, rushing average, yards per completion, touchdowns, touchdown to interception ratio, and yardage for his career numbers. Elite in so many ways, Cam also has multiple touchdown passes in six straight games with only the season opener as his one non-2+ touchdown game. The Panthers are going to feast and I think Cam not only throws for over 300, but I think he’ll throw multiple touchdowns for his 7th straight game and possibly pitch in 1 or 2 rushing touchdowns as the Bucs give up a bottom-3 rate of plays per game inside their own 20…WILD!
FanDuel QB Pool: Patrick Mahomes, Cam Newton
DrafKings QB Pool: Patrick Mahomes, Cam Newton
Need help using the optimizer? Check out my tutorial of how I personally use the optimizer in the MME Playbook Strategy Guide.
***These are the guys I will put varying minimum exposure percentages on – if you follow my pool make sure to that their total min exposure doesn’t add up over 60-80%. I always leave the optimizer some wiggle room to force in some of its algorithm choices that I might not even have in my player pool. I want the DS to pick some different guys for me that I might be missing.***
RUNNING BACK
Latavius Murray will be my highest owned running back this week for MME, as he has a glorious matchup with the Lions. He’s averaging 20 touches and a touchdown over the last three games as the starting running back and now gets to face the Detroit defense that is giving up 137 yards per game and 5.5 yards per carry. Believe it or not, both of those numbers are dead last in the NFL. Murray is going to feast.
Adrian Peterson has a nice matchup against the Falcons who are giving up 9 receptions and 68 yards receiving per game to opposing running backs. While Chris Thompson is better suited for the pass-catching role I think that the 17-plus touches per in six games this season builds a solid floor for AP and he might be able to gobble up a few extra receptions this game in addition to his normal solid workload and red zone role. The Skins’ have averaged 21 PPG this season as a team but are implied to score 24 points and are 1.5 point home favorites. I think the game script for AP sets up nicely.
James Conner has a tough matchup against the Ravens but he’s on fire and this offensive line loves the kid. He’s cleared 100 yards in 3 straight and is piling up touchdowns like I do Chik-Fil-A wrappers. The Ravens currently run 72 plays per game which is the most in the NFL, pretty much ensuring that Conner and the Steelers will get a massive amount of offensive snaps this week which should lead to more opportunity for Conner. Here is the deal with Conner, though the Ravens are elite against opposing running backs in every statistical category and I am worried about his efficiency in this game. I will certainly have some exposure to Conner and you kind of have to with how hot he’s running but don’t go overweight. I would try to grab about half of what we end up projecting Conners’ ownership to be.
Kareem Hunt is going to feast in Week 9 on the road against Cleveland. The Browns have given up multiple rushing touchdowns five times this season and Hunt faced a weak front-7 that has allowed 118 yards per game on the ground. Hunt is starting to get more pass targets and is receiving solid volume in the red zone, in-between the 20’s, and in both the running and passing game. He’s a stud.
Nick Chubb is in play for GPPs and MME because I think he has a chance to score a touchdown or bust a long run or two. I wouldn’t go overly heavy on this play because the Browns are 9.0 point home underdogs and likely will be throwing all game to keep pace with the Chiefs. However, the Chiefs are giving up 5.3 yards per carry and Chubb has 18 and 20 touches in his first two starts for the Brownies. He might be able to catch a few more passes this week as well due to the Chiefs giving up 7.0 receptions per game to opposing running backs.
Jordan Howard won’t be popular and that’s okay with me. I love the idea of stacking him with the Bears defense with vigor. The Bears defense is going to feast on the Bills who are scoring just 11 points per game on offense. I can foresee a game where Howard gets a season-high in touches due to the Bears just pounding the rock in the second half. He’s not expensive either and has 100-yard and 2 TD upside in this matchup. He is perfect for GPPs.
Chris Carson has been a workhorse for the Seahawks and over the last four games has had total touches equaling: 34, 20, 14, and 27. He’s in that mid-tier price range and for a guy who’s had 100 yards rushing in 3 of the last 4 games he seems like a solid value. I love him a bit more on FanDuel due to the touchdown equity I think he has.
Philip Lindsay is in line to be the lead dog for the Broncos as Royce Freeman is still recovering from an injury. Lindsay looked awesome in the loss to the Chiefs in Week 8 and is a great play across the industry (except for you, Yahoo!). In the last two games he’s had 15 touches for 96 yards and 1 TD and then in his start last week he finished with 21 touches for 106 yards and 1 TD. He’s yet another cheap mid-tier priced guy that allows us to pay up at quarterback for the massive floor and ceiling combination that Cam Newton and Patrick Mahomes give us.
Lamar Miller has clearly leaped whatever hurdle was in his way to being productive through the first 6 weeks of the season. He’s rushed for over 100 yards in back to back weeks and has 1 TD in each of the last two games. The Texans are firing on all cylinders and although they just lost Will Fuller to an injury I think the offense remains potent in all phases of the game.
Todd Gurley is still worth every penny and continues to just absolutely SMASH in all formats due to his massive workload, tons of red zone touches, and incredible consistency. I believe that you can go underweight on him on FanDuel and not suffer but around the rest of the industry he’ll likely be my second highest owned running back, just behind Latavius Murray. I am ending my player pool with Gurley because he’s just the absolute goat right now and in a game where the Rams are underdogs I think we can see Gurley be featured as the steady workhorse to keep the game competitive as the Rams surpass their 29 point implied total.
*Note* I mentioned the site I preferred a running back on if there was a preference at all. If I didn’t label it then they’re fine for both.
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WIDE RECEIVER
Mike Evans isn’t priced high enough for his ceiling with Ryan Fitzpatrick. In a matchup that I expect the Buccaneers to throw the ball a ton in to keep pace with the Panthers offense, I can see Evans racking up 12-15 targets and hauling in 100+ yards and a touchdown or two. He’s had amazing success with Fitz this season and already has 5 TDs with him over the span of 5 games.
Adam Thielen is the preferred wide receiver for the Vikings this week as Darius Slay looks like he’ll be lining up with Stefon Diggs more than Thielen. The Vikings are going to feed Thielen the ball as well to give him the NFL record for most 100-yard receiving games in a row (he needs this game to make it 9 straight to own the record). It’s as simple as that. Plug him in if you have the salary.
DeAndre Hopkins has 32.8% of his teams passing targets, 50.0% of his teams touchdowns, and 39.8% of his teams receiving yards. That is incredible and without Fuller in the lineup, Hopkins is going to soak up a dozen plus targets. He has double-digit points in every game this season and only 2 in the last two years have not reached double digits! He has cleared the 20 point fantasy mark three times in 2018 and I can envision his fourth coming this week in Denver.
Julio Jones has yet to score a touchdown and it’s only a matter of time until he scores 3 in a game…So they say, so I’ve said, and so it was written. However, I’m going to be underweight here and will be using him simply as a pivot off of the higher owned Hopkins and Thielen shares. Weird to suggest that Julio Jones is a pivot…I suspect that in the near future this won’t be a pivot and he’ll be the chalk and my goal is to be ahead of that chalk week with the comfort that I enjoyed his explosion while he was on my rosters.
Mitch, you said there were cheapies to use just like at running back so we can jam in Mahomes/Newton/Kelce/Bears…where are they?
I am glad you asked, inner-self. Here they are!
Jarvis Landry is a steal at his price tag in a game where the Browns are going to throw the ball 45-50 times to keep pace with one of the best offenses in the history of the NFL.
Kenny Golladay not only just became his teams #1 WR but Marvin Jones Jr. is supposed to be shadowed by Xavier Rhodes according to our WR vs CB matchup. With Theo Riddick still injured and Golden Tate is gone, Kenny G is going to absolutely erupt and likely add a few more targets at the shallow level of the route tree.
Sammy Watkins likely will have a boosted ownership rate due to his blowup game in Week 8, but it’s still Sammy Watkins and he is not a comfortable name to plug in. For me, it’s his price tag which draws me to him and I think his ownership remains at acceptable levels for us to use him to stack with our heavy Mahomes exposure.
D.J. Moore is just $5,300 and put together over 120 combined rushing and receiving yards on 7 touches in his first career start. He now gets to face the worst pass defense in the history of the NFL (at home) and he’s stackable with Cam Newton. To make things more clear on his playing time, Torrey Smith is still not practicing and it looks like he might end up missing Week 9 as well.
Courtland Sutton is a guy everyone has been waiting to erupt and he’ll get his chance as he slides into the #2 receiver role opposite of Emmanuel Sanders. Sutton has the prototypical build and speed for a number one wide receiver and has flashed glimpses of his immense potential. He’s also incredibly cheap. Yes, please!
Tre’Quan Smith has played 52-of-73 and 42-of-51 snaps over the last two games as the starting #2 wide receiver. If the Rams game turns into a shootout and the Saints revert back to their pre-Mark Ingram days and heave the ball all over the field, Smith will provide us with a massive upside at a weak price tag. Great large field GPP option as a run it back stacking option opposing Todd Gurley.
TIGHT END
Travis Kelce will likely be my highest owned tight end of the 2018 DFS season. I think I’ll likely have him in over 50% of my lineups as I want his floor as much as I want his ceiling. After receiving duds in multiple weeks this season by touchdown dependent tight ends, I love the spot Kelce is in and he’s yet another stacking option I want to use (as I fade Tyreek Hill).
David Njoku will likely be my second highest owned tight end for two reasons. The first is that I think the Browns will throw the ball a TON to keep pace and second is because Njoku sunk us in Week 8 and bombed a TON of the field’s lineups. I love recency bias and it’s hard to overcome for many individuals. It’s the perfect time to go right back to the well as his price dipped and he’s an even better value. I think Week 8 will be the outlier and not a new trend.
Greg Olsen has played 181 of 184 snaps in the three games he’s played in this season. I mean he’s a guy with a plethora of injuries and has missed the better part of most of the last three years, but go ahead Panthers, throw him out there for every snap. Regardless of the stupidity of the coaching, Olsen is a great option to stack with Newton and is affordable. He’s scored a red zone touchdown in back to back games.
OJ Howard is a nice “run it back” stacking option who’s cheap enough to roll out there opposing Cam Newton in lineups. He’s done well regardless of Fitz or Winston behind center and is a solid floor/ceiling option.
DEFENSE
Bears DEF will be in about 75% or more of my lineups this week. The Bills are scoring just 11 PPG as a team and now have quite possibly the worst quarterback in NFL history chucking the ball all over the yard in the general direction of a similar colored jersey whenever he’s under duress. The Bears are second to only the Seahawks in turnover rate and have forced multiple turnovers in all but one game this season. It’s going to be an absolute disaster for the Bills and a holiday for the Bears.
Panthers DEF is simply here because I need a pivot and I think Fitzpatrick will garner some serious attention by the DFS community. We’ve all seen the Fitzmagic run-out and he turns back into a pumpkin time and time again. Whenever it happens it’s in a very ugly way and we are talking 4/5 interceptions and defensive touchdowns are abundant. Will it happen? I don’t know, but I’ll certainly have some Panthers exposure just in case.
Chiefs DEF is just $2,700 on DraftKings and I’ll use them on FanDuel as well but am way more excited about them on DK. They have 4,4,5, 2, 2, 4 sacks in the last 6 games and face the Browns who have a bottom-3 sack rate allowed in 2018. Chiefs can rack up sacks and turnovers in a hurry if Mayfield is forced to throw the ball 45 times this week (which I project).
Exposures
I plan on having a global max exposure cap at 55-60%. Everything for MME is still more game theory and correlation than most optimal approach. It’s projecting scenarios and hypothetical situations, ownership, and production. Anything goes and I want to make sure I have a pulse if some of the higher owned guys “dud”. Make sure you lower the cap on guys you don’t want a ton of but know you probably should have some of. If the DS pumps out too high of a percentage on a player, don’t ask the staff if 90% is okay, just lower the individual exposure on him. We really don’t want to do that on anybody ever unless we are having to make an all or nothing decision on mega-chalk.
Two Minute Warning
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