Where Do I Begin?
I have created a strategy guideline for members to read and use for each specific weekly playbook for the NFL season. I would suggest opening it up and reading it prior to using the playbook below.
MME PLAYBOOK STRATEGY AND GUIDELINES!
Subscribe/5 star rate and listen: Donut Shop (33-mins) iTunes and Donut Shop (33-mins) Podbean!
Week 11 Playbook
Strategy Discussion for Week 11
You can hear it on both iTunes and podbean! Click either link, subscribe, enjoy and hit me up in chat to discuss the slate and my content!
QUARTERBACK
Carson Wentz is my favorite quarterback in Week 11. I don’t mind that he’s on the road, I don’t mind that he’s an underdog, and I don’t mind that he doesn’t have big household names to throw to. Wentz has scored 14+ DraftKings points in every single game this season, he’s been in the mid-teens to mid-20’s in every game on FanDuel, he has a 6.1% touchdown rate and he’s only $6,300 on DK and $7,700 on FanDuel.
On FanDuel, Wentz is averaging 21.8 PPG over the past month which is the 4th highest rate, however, he’s just the 8th highest priced QB.
Andrew Luck is the 6th highest priced FanDuel QB but is averaging the 3rd most PPG (22.8). These spots are where I love to take advantage of guys that I think are underpriced. He has scored 22.20 DraftKings points or more in 6 straight games and is priced at $5,900 on DK. What a steal with a stud like ceiling. He could win someone a GPP this week.
Dak Prescott has scored 29.52, 20.22, 15.82, and 21.70 FanDuel points in the last four weeks. He now faces the anemic defense of the Atlanta Falcons and has a new fun toy added to his previously weak arsenal (Amari Cooper). Prescott with Zeke is going to be something I’ll discuss on the podcast and I’ll be sure to elaborate exactly what type of contests to put them in. On DraftKings, Dak will be one, if not, the highest owned PLAYER out of my entire pool. He’s just $5,200 over there and SCREAMS value.
Need help using the optimizer? Check out my tutorial of how I personally use the optimizer in the MME Playbook Strategy Guide.
***These are the guys I will put varying minimum exposure percentages on – if you follow my pool make sure to that their total min exposure doesn’t add up over 60-80%. I always leave the optimizer some wiggle room to force in some of its algorithm choices that I might not even have in my player pool. I want the DS to pick some different guys for me that I might be missing.***
RUNNING BACK
Ezekiel Elliot is going to absolute feast in Atlanta. What I like about him more so than his matchup is his price tag. I think David Johnson will be much higher owned due to his cheaper price tag and if people decide to pay up they’ll roll with Melvin Gordon or Saquon Barkley. That leaves players like Zeke, Christian McCaffrey, and Alvin Kamara as my preferred and favorite running back options in Week 11. While each player is solid in their own way, whether that’s due to matchup, workload, or trends, I think that Zeke might have the highest ceiling this week, albeit the lowest floor as well.
The Falcons continue to give up plenty of receptions to opposing running back and Zeke is in a prime position to carry the load on the ground and in the passing game in what could end up being a high scoring affair.
I’ll have shares of all the bolded running backs above but prefer them in this order: Zeke, Conner (next), Kamara, Gordon, Barkley, Johnson, McCaffrey.
One player that people will forget about is going to be my favorite option for large field GPPs and likely overlooked due to health concerns and matchup worries. That’s going to be James Conner. The youngster is going to be the bell cow in Pittsburgh for years to come and while the Jaguars are a stout defense, I love the fact that they are a bottom-3 defense against opposing running backs out of the backfield in the passing game. Conner can rack up receptions in a hurry and routinely caught 2-3 passes during the 2-minute offense that the Steelers jump into frequently throughout the game to change up the pace.
Prior to last game, Conner had 3 or more receptions in every single game since being the full-time running back. He has 6 games this season where he has finished with 5 or more receptions. On top of that, he has scored a touchdown in5 straight games and has multiple touchdowns in 3-of-5.
I will discuss on the podcast why I think it’s a phenomenal week to pay up and rotate the elite running backs in MME this week and why I am going to be extremely heavy handed at the top tier of the RBs in Week 11. Tune in!
Dion Lewis is superb value on both sites due to his price tag and role with the team. I think at $4,800 on DraftKings he’s also cash viable. He’s had 19, 23, and 22 touches in the last three weeks. The only thing he’s missing right now is touchdowns and while he hasn’t scored yet with that heavy of a workload he’s due. Regression is worth monitoring and at such a massive discount for the market share out of the backfield he’s my primary “pay down” running back this week.
Mark Ingram is in play on DraftKings only this week as he’s priced at just $4,700. He’s largely a touchdown-dependent running back and isn’t going to receive a high volume of touches. However, I think when we are looking at an offense that could score 30 + points we have to have some shares in MME of a guy who’s going to get a dozen or so touches and potential for multiple touchdowns.
Become a VIP member
WIDE RECEIVER
Kenny Golladay looks like he’ll be the primary target for Matt Stafford as it appears that Marvin Jones Jr. is in grave danger of missing this game. He’s currently doubtful for Sunday against the Panthers. While I don’t like the matchup very much we know Stafford can hone in on his primary and pepper them with targets. Golladay also is a bigger body that can protect the football due to his size and wing-span. He’s too cheap for what his possible role will be in Week 11. He’s also one of the reasons I am so fine with paying up for RBs across the board.
Courtland Sutton is another cheap wide receiver that could offer up potential red zone goodies and allow us to buy up all the stud RBs. At just $4,600 on DraftKings I think he’s an elite value. I like that recency bias could keep his price low as well after a poor showing in the last game.
Amari Cooper is someone I want a lot of shares of in Week 11 as I think this game could turn into a shootout. I want to stack Cooper in plenty of shares with Dak Prescott but I won’t touch him outside of stacks. More on that in the pod and why.
Corey Davis continues to receive plenty of targets and opportunities when Mariota is healthy. He has a massive target share in Mariota’s healthy games (over 30%!). He’s too cheap right now and has a pretty high scoring ceiling. The former early 1st round pick should have a chance to feast against the Colts and I love the idea of running Davis back in lineups that you use Andrew Luck in.
DeAndre Hopkins is the wide receiver I want to pay up for more than anybody on Sunday. He has scored double-digits in every game for the past two seasons and has been an absolute stud this year. He’s always under-owned, too. If we take the names away and just look at the numbers, you’d see a guy receiving 33% of his team’s targets, scoring 50% of his teams passing touchdowns, and owning 39.8% of his teams receiving yards. He averages 10 targets, 6 receptions, 97 yards receiving, and 0.8 touchdowns per game. Wow!
Dede Westbrook is a nice option to roll out against the Steelers that have been prone to giving up the big play. Westbrook had 10 targets in Week 10 but managed to haul in just 5 for 30 yards. He is a big play wide receiver though and had a touchdown or 80+ yards in 4 games this season. If he’s able to do either of those things for the 5th time he’ll return excellent value.
Donte Moncrief isn’t getting much respect in terms of DFS pricing either. He has games of 17.30, 11.10, 10.60, 19.40 and 11.40 on FanDuel this season. While none of them is massive GPP winning upside, a few of those scores are superb value at his price tag that allows us to pay up for the stud RBs with supreme floor and ceiling combinations.
Julio Jones, Michael Thomas, and Odell Beckham all belong in your player pool. The issue with these guys is that I think that the probability of the elite RBs outscoring them this week is extremely likely. However, you can’t forgo adding them to your player pool. Hopefully, when we plug in our minimum exposures on the running backs it will scatter shares of this elite trio throughout but not heavy on any of them. We can ensure this happens by having a low minimum on these three guys (and Hopkins if you choose to keep him low) and jack up the minimums on the RBs. Hopkins remains my favorite in cash games and SE GPPs.
TIGHT END
Zach Ertz, Zach Ertz, and more Zach Ertz. On DraftKings, I will find it hard not to have 50% of my lineups with him. He’s averaged PPG numbers that rival top-8 priced WRs and he’s just mid-6k. I don’t get it but I’m going to take advantage of it. I love him in stacks with Wentz, I love him as a stand-alone option. I like him as a “run it back” stack option with Alvin Kamara with the game theory that Kamara and Ertz do all the scoring for their perspective teams during a high-scoring affair. The two have combined for over 40 points on 7 occasions this season. Yes, please!
On FanDuel, you may or may not have the salary relief to jam Ertz in there. In such cases, I’ll look to roll out Jack Doyle, Eric Ebron, Vance McDonald, and Ricky Seals-Jones.
Doyle is an elite pivot off of Eric Ebron, who’s already a stud TE on FanDuel due to his touchdown equity. I love Ebron on FD in smaller GPPs.
Vance might end up being a major benefactor (James Conner, too) due to AJ Buoye and Jaylen Ramsey shadowing both JuJu Smith-Schuster and Antonio Brown, severely limiting their scoring ceiling and probability for explosive performances.
Ricky Seals-Jones looked the part as a TE1 under the new coaching staff and had 10 targets last week. The Cardinals host the Raiders in what should be an ugly game.
On DraftKings, I will have a share or two of Oj Howard due to his role (even with the Week 10 dud) in this offense and at just $4,900. He’s in a nice bounce-back spot against the Giants. Even still, players like Jordan Reed and Eric Ebron are priced at just $3,800 and $4,300 on DK while Vance is just $4,000. Howard will be in the pool but I am not going overboard.
DEFENSE
Chargers DEF continues to improve and now they get the Broncos visiting in Week 11. They have double-digit points on both DraftKings and FanDuel four out the last 5 weeks. They are superior on DK at just $3,400 and I’ll have more of them than anybody else in Week 11.
Cardinals DEF is in play against the anemic Raiders offense lacking playmakers. A healthy dose of David Johnson should allow the Cardinals to have good field position to make some plays and potential defensive touchdowns as well.
Redskins DEF is a scary proposition but they’ll have ample opportunity to sack Deshaun Watson as he continues to take massive hits week in and week out.
Carolina DEF is sitting pretty as they face a Lions team reeling and missing Golden Tate and Marvin Jones Jr. in the passing game.
Exposures
I plan on having a global max exposure cap at 55-60%. Everything for MME is still more game theory and correlation than most optimal approach. It’s projecting scenarios and hypothetical situations, ownership, and production. Anything goes and I want to make sure I have a pulse if some of the higher owned guys “dud”. Make sure you lower the cap on guys you don’t want a ton of but know you probably should have some of. If the DS pumps out too high of a percentage on a player, don’t ask the staff if 90% is okay, just lower the individual exposure on him. We really don’t want to do that on anybody ever unless we are having to make an all or nothing decision on mega-chalk.
Two Minute Warning
Feel free to take a sneak peek at our available options. No matter what you choose, we cannot wait to hear from you and work with you in Slack. In addition to our website and content, being able to talk with you in a group setting or one on one is what really makes this company, and its members, so special.
If you’re playing as a hobby there is a place for you here. If you’re playing as a means to a secondary income, join the club, as hundreds of members are doing just that. If you’re trying to make this a career (we have a dozen or so staff and members that do are full-time DFS pros), then we implore you to join our community, use our services, tools, articles, podcasts, research station, domination station optimizer, and last but not least – our members-only chat where you can reach out and discuss our content, tools, and lineups with Pro’s around the clock.
Member Hall of Fame and DFSA Gift Bag Winners
DFS Army VIP Membership (promo DONUTS is 10% off the duration of your stay)
You can hit me up on Twitter anytime and subscribe to my YouTube channel for videos and iTunes for podcasts.
Fortune favors the bold, go make your own luck!
-Donuts