Where Do I Begin?
I have created a strategy guideline for members to read and use for each specific weekly playbook for the NFL season. I would suggest opening it up and reading it prior to using the playbook below.
MME PLAYBOOK STRATEGY AND GUIDELINES!
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Week 10 Playbook
Strategy Discussion for Week 10
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QUARTERBACK
Alright, when I look at the price tag of Patrick Mahomes it blows my mind. This guy is going to be way under-owned due to his price tag and the fact that everyone is concerned about the blow out factor. Let me calm your fears. A few weeks ago the Chiefs romped the Bengals 45-10. Mahomes scored 33.82 FanDuel points and a few more on DraftKings due to the bonus and yardage difference. It was his second best performance of the entire season and has remained there behind only his Week 2 performance against the Steelers. While the blowout factor is huge and I think a reasonable probability, I think Mahomes and Kareem Hunt will eat, no – FEAST, on their way to victory. For cash games and small field GPPs, I want to plug and play Mahomes across the industry.
Andy Dalton would be one of my next two highest owned QBs in Week 10. Dalton has a home game during the daytime against the Saints with an implied team total of 24.0 points. I think Drew Brees will be higher owned on both FanDuel and DraftKings at a higher cost. Andy Dalton averages the same number of DraftKings points at home as Drew Brees does on the road in 2018. I’ll take Dalton at half the ownership and save the money.
Jared Goff and the Rams have a 30.5 point implied total. Goff has thrown the ball 75 times in the last two games for just under 690 yards passing and 6 passing touchdowns. That has resulted in two performances over 26 and 30 points on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He’s slightly more expensive than Dalton but has a much higher floor and ceiling combination. However, I think he will be higher owned than Dalton. Goff is my preferred option for those creating “ladders” while Dalton is my preferred large field GPP option.
Ryan Fitzpatrick will have a few shares in my CSV file as the Bucs have a 27 point implied total and Fitzmagic just keeps on pumping out solid fantasy outings. He has scored 42.28, 30.98, 28.14, 4.04, and 26.02 FanDuel points in his 5 starts. That is a massive ceiling. I likely won’t anchor my lineups with him this week but I certainly will be creating 15-25% of my lineups with him. I actually think he’s another phenomenal hybrid quarterback for Week 10. Cross-reference with Geek’s picks and roll with Geek’s preferred hybrid option if comparing pools. That’s his baby and he CRUSHES ladders.
Marcus Mariota is dirt cheap across the industry and while his outcome will be volatile at best, he has a chance to smash value as the Titans host the Patriots. He’s so cheap on DraftKings at sub-5k and is even sub-7k on FanDuel. I love him on both sites. I’ll likely slap a 10-15% minimum on him and hope he continues his “strong” play that he’s had over the last two weeks – completing 75.0% and 72.4% of his passes in back to back games while scoring 16.28 and 22.80 FanDuel points.
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***These are the guys I will put varying minimum exposure percentages on – if you follow my pool make sure to that their total min exposure doesn’t add up over 60-80%. I always leave the optimizer some wiggle room to force in some of its algorithm choices that I might not even have in my player pool. I want the DS to pick some different guys for me that I might be missing.***
RUNNING BACK
Kareem Hunt and Melvin Gordon will anchor my lineups at running back this week with the highest shares out of my player pool at the position. Hunt is matchup proof and scored 34.60 FanDuel points and 37.10 DraftKings points against the Bengals in the aforementioned 45-10 victory. That’s right, Mahomes and Hunt combined for just over 68 fantasy points in that blowout win. I can’t say it enough – I AM NOT WORRIED! On DraftKings, Hunt will be my highest owned running back.
On FanDuel, MG3 and Hunt likely will be even. I think the Chargers DEF + Gordon will be a great stack. Chargers defense is putting immense pressure on the quarterback as of late and Gordon played 45-of-51 snaps in his first game back after being out for three weeks. He’s healthy, the Chargers defense is getting healthy, and the Raiders are an absolute disaster in every phase of the game.
Todd Gurley is nearly a lock on DraftKings, although I’ll likely cap him at like 80% exposure. He’s just too cheap. Him and Hunt will be my two highest owned players across the entire DK format. On FanDuel, I honestly might have 5% exposure “just in-case” but I won’t want any more than that. I am more on Goff against the Seahawks this week.
James White is the perfect hybrid running back option for ladders and becomes nearly a plug and play if Sony Michel is ruled out again. His floor and ceiling combination is superb and he’s the priority red zone option for Tom Brady this season.
Nick Chubb is averaging 20 touches per game since taking over the starting running back position. While I think Duke Johnson is the better play on DraftKings due to his PPR ability and the Falcons being terrible against pass catching running backs, there is no denying that Chubb is the better FanDuel play with what is likely a goal line touchdown equity that Duke just won’t have.
Jordan Howard is in play only with Bears DEF stacks. Similar to the last three weeks, Howard shows up here as a stack with Bears only due to him being such a game script dependent running back. The same pretty much goes for Tarik Cohen and we can pretty much hang our hat on one of them having a great day. I would imagine it’s likely Howard and if it is the Bears defense played great and played with a lead which means more sacks and turnovers.
Tarik Cohen is also in play but NEVER with the Bears defense. If the Bears defense sucks and the game is close or they’re trailing then Cohen will be the primary option on offense in both the running and passing game.
Aaron Jones is a phenomenal option this week as he’s taken the reigns of the backfield and has nearly doubled the snaps of Jamaal Williams and is getting twice as many touches. The Packers are heavy favorites at home against the Dolphins and I like Jones as a stand-alone option and as a stack with the Packers defense.
Kapri Bibbs is my dark horse GPP winner and I’ll run him back on the opposite side of some Ryan Fitzpatrick stacks. On 12/31/17, Bibbs played in 54 of 57 snaps and finished with 8 receptions, 100 total yards, and scored 14 FanDuel and 18 DraftKings points. AP is the leader of this backfield but with Chris Thompson looking iffy in Week 10, there is a game script theory that if the Bucs go up by several touchdowns then AP might get scraped off the field for Bibbs in a pass-catching “comeback” role.
He played 21 snaps last week after Chris Thompson left with an injury.
Isaiah Crowell should be used with the Jets defense the same way Jordan Howard is to be used with the Bears. He’s not played well this year outside of a few blowup games to start the season. But would anybody be shocked if the super cheap Crowell had 2 short goal-line plunges and like 60 yards against the Bills? I wouldn’t. I would also gladly take those 18 points at his cheap price tag.
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WIDE RECEIVER
Cooper Kupp continues to be a massive value each and every week and gets zero respect by the DFS pricing algo’s. I will continue to take advantage of this and use him a ton. He’s too cheap for his role on a team that is implied to score 30 points. Kupp will be my highest owned WR of the week and he doesn’t break the bank. I love him in Goff stacks and as stand-alone plays. His touchdown equity goes well with Mahomes and Hunt as well and I wouldn’t be shocked to see this trio pop off for 75’sh combined points.
Marques Valdes-Scantling has to be in your player pools this week due to his price tag and role with the team. He’s a big play threat and thus far hasn’t needed a lot of targets to make a significant impact. He’s too cheap and on a team playing at home implied to outscore their opponent by 10 points. Scantling doesn’t need to be stacked with Rodgers as his value is already sky high due to his cheap price tag.
Tyreek Hill is due for a MONSTER game. I am talking 6-7 receptions for 150 yards and 2-3 touchdowns. The Cardinals don’t have the speed anymore, and who really does, to follow Hill around. If Watkins is out that could mean an extra look or two for Hill and really any extra target is just another target he has a chance to take to the house. Hill, similar to the other two guys in Tier 1 for the WR’s, has a massive scoring ceiling in relation to their price tag. I prefer all three on FanDuel but all three are in my DK player pool as well. He has a weird price tag where I think people choose to pay down or pay up but not settle on his mid-tier pricing. I will.
The next tier is where I think we see a bit of chalk – Mike Evans and Tyler Boyd, in particular, should see increased ownership due to matchup and role with the team. Evans is a superb stacking option (but not a stand-alone play) with Fitzpatrick. Boyd is a great option on his own or with Dalton – as we’ve seen Boyd blow up and still a middling performance from Dalton. Lastly, Michael Thomas will be chalk after his massive Week 9 outing that was heavily watched and exciting. The public doesn’t forget about stuff like that. Thomas is absolutely in play but the larger the GPP the less and less I want exposure to him. He’s a solid game stack option though with Dalton + Boyd in the same lineups.
My preferred pivot off of Thomas is Julio Jones. He finally broke the scoring drought in Week 9 and is still on pace for a career-high in receiving yards. If we are about to see major regression in the touchdown department then Julio is about to finish as a top-3 WR each week here on out and is due for a 40 point performance (he has 1-2 of those annually). I don’t like his matchup as much as Thomas but for a pure ownership play – JJ is out in front when comparing the two.
This is where Jarvis Landry comes into play. I wouldn’t mind Julio Jones stacked with Landry and Duke Johnson, with the theory that Julio goes nuts and the Falcons are up multiple scores in the second half – resulting in a pass-heavy performance from the Browns with Landry and Duke getting peppered during “comeback” mode. Outside of stacks, I won’t be using much Landry at all.
TIGHT END
David Njoku, if active, is going to feast against the Falcons. He’s too athletic for their safeties and linebackers and if the Falcons go up by a couple of scores we likely see Mayfield heave the ball (inefficiently) for 40-45 attempts. Njoku has over a 20% target share since Mayfield took over which means we can see possibly 8-9 targets and potentially red zone work as well.
Travis Kelce might get more work this week with Sammy Watkins looking doubtful. Kelce is a great large field GPP option because I don’t think people like paying up a TE this late in the season. They want to plug in the top tier RBs and WRs and forget that it can win you a GPP if you plug in a 20 point TE and grab a value WR who goes for 20 (looking at you Cooper Kupp).
O.J. Howard scores and scores and scores some more when Fitzpatrick is at QB. In the games that he didn’t leave with injury and Fitzpatrick throwing to him for part or all of the game: 6.40, 17.10, 10.20, 14.20, 14.80, 19.30 FanDuel points. He has 4 TDs from Fitz in parts of 6 games with him. Yes, please!
Trey Burton is inexplicably priced at just $3,900 on DraftKings – I LOVE him there. On FanDuel I prefer Howard and it isn’t close. Howard will be the majority of my Fitzpatrick stacks.
Jack Doyle and Jimmy Graham are great large field GPP options. Doyle might end up leading the team in targets against the Jags this week as they get back AJ Buoye who should help the DBs lock down the Colts bevy of inadequate pass-catching options (minus Hilton).
Ben Watson was great in 2017 and it’s no surprise that he’s back as a top-10 TE in scoring since the return of Mark Ingram. The offense is just different now. Watson is a touchdown equity play across the industry but only for large GPPs.
Jordan Reed still leads the team in target share. The problem is they barely throw. They might have to this week with Fitzmagic bombing footballs down the field.
EDIT* I removed Hooper from my pool*
DEFENSE
Bears DEF, Chargers DEF and Packers DEF were discussed with their coinciding team running backs and how I plan on using them. Please re-read Cohen/Howard to ensure you don’t use the Bears in the wrong lineups!
Patriots DEF is a nice hedge play against my Mariota shares and vice versa. Either Mariota turns back into a pumpkin and the Titans score 3 points and Patriots defense EATS or Mariota plays efficient football and Patriots DEF stinks it up. Whatever percentage of Mariota you use, I would go equal shares with the Pats.
Rams DEF is in play ONLY with Todd Gurley stacked. On DraftKings it’s a much easier play to roll out due to Gurley’s price tag being so cheap. What a joke his price is…
Jets and Chiefs are my top 2 defenses of the week. I’ll have 60-70% of my entire defense exposure split between these two. Currently, I am on the Chiefs more than the Jets just due to ownership but there is literally NOTHING wrong with the Jets. Peterman is, well, Peterman. Gross.
EDIT *I’ve removed the Bills from my pool with the news that Josh McCown is starting.*
Exposures
I plan on having a global max exposure cap at 55-60%. Everything for MME is still more game theory and correlation than most optimal approach. It’s projecting scenarios and hypothetical situations, ownership, and production. Anything goes and I want to make sure I have a pulse if some of the higher owned guys “dud”. Make sure you lower the cap on guys you don’t want a ton of but know you probably should have some of. If the DS pumps out too high of a percentage on a player, don’t ask the staff if 90% is okay, just lower the individual exposure on him. We really don’t want to do that on anybody ever unless we are having to make an all or nothing decision on mega-chalk.
Two Minute Warning
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