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Holding the Midfield – A Sharp Look at the Odds for English Premier League DFS

Even though we didn’t have an official article last week, we did have official model plays and we went 2-2. That brings us to 12-11 for official model plays on the main slate. Over the course of the season we want to see this turn a better record, but we are still operating with little data so this is a good result, thus far.

 

Leicester/West Ham – Leicester win and over 2.5 goals = LOSS x 2

 

Watford/Huddersfield – Watford victory and over 2.5 goals = WIN x 2

 

Let’s get down to business.

 

Remember to check Sniper’s Slide Tackle for some player picks. The odds I will be using will be taken from Ladbrokes.

Cardiff v Leicester

I think we all expect that Leicester wins this match, but what is not as obvious is that the total goes over 2.5 goals. I will be honest in that Leicester has done plenty to ensure that they hurt their scoring chances.  The last two times Leicester was due to score 2+ goals they ended up with red cards. 3rd time’s the charm? Demarai Gray could get the start at the RAM position and he is someone I like in GPPs.

 

Model’s play: CAR/LEI – Over 2.5 goals

Everton v Brighton

Game Stack Alert! Don’t sleep on Brighton.The model likes both teams to score and it thinks the books are too low on Brighton. There is a moderate difference in Brighton’s win odds. Ladbrokes has their chances at roughly 20%, but the model says 32.7%. Now, that doesn’t eclipse the Everton win odds (43.34%) but those win odds are down from the implied 51.75%. If you are feeling adventurous you could take a shot on the Brighton victory or the over 2.5 goals but the official play will be…

 

Model’s play: Both Teams to Score. The book is angling the other way.

Newcastle v Watford

The model likes a Watford victory. Ladbrokes has this match as a coin flip on the win odds, minus the draw odds. The model has been riding shotgun with Watford on their resurgence, so I won’t be deviating from this one. After last week, Isaac Success will be a pseudo-popular play. He won’t be overly popular, and he is in a good spot this week, but he should have double-digit ownership. The GPP pivot this week is Will Hughes.

 

Model’s play: Watford Victory.

Arsenal v Liverpool

Arsenal is very banged up on the back end and a lot of pressure will be put on the holding midfielders to stem the tide. Liverpool should be too much in the end. The model does not believe Arsenal finds its way on the board. I like Mo Salah and Roberto Firmino to cause plenty of trouble. There is no official play here, as we all expect Liverpool to win. You can bet them if you want, as the model says they are undervalued in the books.

 

Good luck! The dirty work is now done. Hold court and climb the leaderboards!