Welcome back fight fans! We have a 12 fight card in Australia to look forward to this Saturday. Overall I think this is a solid card. With this being the 2nd card in 2 days draftkings has toned down the tournament payouts for this card. More than likely I will be concentrating on cash games. I am not saying don’t play tournaments just be sure you pay attention to the payout structure.
We have been on a huge run in all sports at DFS Army! Especially in NBA as you can see below! If you want to join in on the winning use promo code “FORSLUND” to save 10% on your membership.
As always have some fun in tournaments this week. Just remember the Golden Rule! While chasing after the big payout is enticing always remember bankroll management. I am a firm believer in the 80-20 rule. Which is 80% of your allocated bankroll for the night in cash games and 20% in tournaments. Remember to take advantage of our Research Station and Domination Station. Plus check out the podcast, and follow me on Twitter (@MMACashAssassin) for the latest MMA and DFS Army news! Let’s break down these fights.
For those of you new to MMA here is a breakdown of the scoring used on Draftkings.
DFS MMA UFC Fight Night 142 Fighter Advice
Fights to Target In Cash
First off before I give breakdowns here. What we are looking for in cash games is safety with a nice floor. It might be taking a high priced favorite in a good spot. It could also be a value play based on odds and pricing. Often times in cash I will look to stack a fight specifically if it has the potential to go 5 rounds (always the main event on the card or a championship fight). Now both sides of a fight may not be cash viable in a fight but, at least 1 of them is under this group.
Dos Santos (-150) 8.3k vs Tuivasa (+130) 7.9k
This is the main event and we have potentially 5 rounds of action here. If you are familiar with my article by now you know where this is going. If this is your first time welcome. With that said in cash games I am stacking this fight and moving on. We should expect 120+ draftkings points with the stack so, I am locking it in and moving on.
In tournaments lets take a look at how we should attack this main event.
Dos Santos is a solid striker (4.83 SS’s per minute) and has good power. He has a good jab as well as leg kicks. Tuivasa is taking a big step-up in competition here. He is a good striker (5.21 SS’s per minute) and has solid power.
This fight is has one of the highest odds to end Inside The Distance (ITD) -300 according to Vegas. With both fighters priced in the midrange whoever wins this fight should crush tbeir value. My lean is Dos Santos here. I think most people will lean towards using Tuivasa being the cheaper fighter. I will more than likely have 100% exposure to this fight (60-40 or 70-30). Overall my preferred play is Dos Santos.
Yusuff (-550) 9.3k vs Mokhtarian (+425) 6.9k
Both fighters are making their UFC debuts in this one. Yusuff is a solid striker and has big power. He has solid knees and is a decent wrestler. Mokhtarian is tough and has decent submissions.
This fight is expected to end early with an ITD prop of (-300). If its ending early its more than likely going to be Yusuff (-195 to win ITD). He us the biggest favorite on the entire card and priced as the 3rd most expensive fighter on draftkings. He makes for a great play in cash and tournaments. I plan to have heavy exposure to him personally. With that being the case Mokhtarian is only someone I will be using in 1-2 lineups in contests I have 20+ in just has a hedge play. Overall Yusuff is my preferred play and 1 of my favorites on the entire card.
Nguyen (-155) 8.5k vs Reis (+135) 7.7k
Nguyen is quick fighter with solid combos. He is a solid striker (3.82 SS’s per minute) and has decent power. Reis is coming into this match up on a 3 fight losing streak. He is a solid grappler and has good takedowns (TD’s)(4.94 per fight). In cash games I don’t like the price tag on Nguyen in a fight likely to go to decision (-155). Depending on your cash lineup construction Reis is in play as a punt. I think he has a safe floor in that he should land a few TD’s.
Let’s take a look and see what our DFS Army exclusive Research Station says about this matchup.
Looking at these numbers Reis is the better value play and is projected to score higher. I can’t ignore the fact he has 3 straight losses and for that reason alone I think you need some exposure to Nguyen as well. Overall not a fight I will have a ton of exposure to in tournaments. My preferred play is Reis just because he has upside with wresting.
Ismagulov (-525) 9.5k vs Gorgees (+415) 6.7k
This is another fight where we have 2 fighters making their UFC debuts. Ismagulov is coming in with a 16-1 professional record with 9 of those eins coming via KO. He is a solid striker and has good power. Gorgees has decent submissions and generally tends to get his wins in the 1st round.
Ismagulov is the highest priced fighter on the entire card and is in play in all formats. I think he makes a better cash game at his price. I am not saying he is a bad play in tournaments he will just need to outscore the other fighters in his price range to be on the optimal lineup. I honestly don’t see a path to victory here for Gorgees and will most likely be fading him. Ismagulov is my preferred play.
Pedro (-440) 9.4k vs Rua (+350) 6.8k
Pedro is a decent striker (2.63 SS’s) and has solid power. He has shown to have cardio issues in the past and also signs of not having the best Fight IQ. Rua is a veteran. He is a decent striker (3.55 SS’s) and has good submissions.
Vegas is expecting this one to end ITD (-365). With the most likeky winner being Pedro (-231 to win ITD). I am not sure I can get on board with that completly. In cash games I think Reis is in play as a punt. He is the 2nd cheapest fighter on the card and using him in your lineups opens up so much more up top. In tournaments Pedro interests me a little bit more. I can’t ignore his finishing prop. I just am not going to go out of my way to force him in my lineups. Overall I want exposure to both in tournaments and have no problem using Reis in cash games.
Willis (-120) 8.2k vs Hunt (+100) 8k
Willis is a tough fighter and is taking a step-up in competition here. He is athletic and solid overall. He is a solid striker (4.61 SS’s) and has decent power. He also has decent TD’s (1.84 per fight). Hunt is a good striker (2.47 SS’s) and has solid power. Its worth noting this will be his last fight in the UFC.
Vegas sees this fight ending via stoppage with an ITD prop of (-215). With both fighters in the midrange let’s turn to the Research Station for some insight here.
It’s going slightly against the thoughts of Vegss here. Looking at what they have for both to win ITD (Willis +236 and Hunt +145). I am going to side with the younger fighter here in Willis. As I am writing this article he is currently in my cash lineup even (be sure you listen to our pod we are recording Friday Night to see if that’s still the case). With all that said I think Hunt is very much in play in tournaments. I will likely have a good amount of exposure to both. My preferred play being Willis.
Fights to Target in Tournaments
Unlike the cash fights from above. These tournament fights carry greater risk. While they may have a lower floor these fights have higher ceilings. Which when mixed with the right amount of cash plays can yield huge dividends in tournaments.
Crute (-260) 8.7k vs Craig (+220) 7.5k
Crute is making his UFC debut here. He is an aggresive fighter and has good cardio. He is a solid striker and has good power. Craig is tough and is a decent striker (2.51 SS’s). He has good submissions and is an ok wrestler (1.45 TD’s per fight).
This is another fight Vegas is picking to end ITD (-285). Let’s see what our Research Station thinks.
At his salary on draftkings that spells huge upside. Plus many will remember Craig’s last fight when he won via submission with 10 seconds left in the fight. I think Crute could get overlooked with more well names around him. At his price Craig is in play as well just because he does have a path to victory (albiet slim) with his submission. Overall my preferred play is Crute.
Kunchenko (-335) 9.2k vs Okami (+275) 7k
Kunchenko is a solid striker (2.93 SS’s) and has good power. Okami is a solid wrestler and has decent TD’s (2.09).
Overall this isn’t a fight I am looking to target a ton of on draftkings. Kunchenko is in play because he should win this fight I am just not sure if he will pay off his 9.2k salary on draftkings. Okami is for the most part off my radar here. Overall I will have some shares of Kunchenko and he is my only target in this fight.
France (-380) 9.1k vs Garcia (+315) 7.1k
France is making his UFC debut here. He is a solid striker and has good power (11 1st Rd finishes in his career). He has a decent ground game and ok submissions. Garcia is taking this fight on short notice. He is a decent striker and has ok power
Vegas is slightly leaning on this fight ending early with an ITD of (-160) With in ITD prop of (-112) France is a solid play in tournaments. I think he might go low owned because most won’t want to roster a debuting fighter. Garcia is in play as a punt (I just won’t use him much with taking this on short notice). France is my preffered play.
Matthews (-115) 8.4k vs Martin (-105) 7.8k
Matthews is a good striker (3.05 SS’s) and has solid power. He is athletic and has solid TD’s (2.51 per fight). Martin is a solid all-around fighter. He is a solid striker (2.81) and has a good ground game.
Normally with a fight at -180 to go to decision 8 wouldn’t have much interest in. But, with both fighters priced in the midrange we need some exposure to it.
I tend to agree with our Research Station and he is my preferred play. I do want shares of Martin as well. This might be one of those scenarios to have each shares of both.
Most Fade Worthy Fights on Card
Giagos (-370) 9k vs Hirota (+310) 7.2k
Not a fight a want to target much with a fight goes to decision prop of (-255). Giagos should win I just don’t see him making value. Hirota might be the better play as a punt (I just don’t love the play).
Nakamura (-175) 8.8k vs Touahri (+155) 7.4k
Fight has a (-240) goes to decision prop. Not a fight I want any exposure to unless making 20+ lineups. Even than I don’t want more than 15% on either fighter.
If any of my thoughts change I will post them in chat.
Be sure you check out our VIP Podcast
See everyone in Slack! If you are new to the sport of MMA, let us teach you the fundamentals. Become a VIP at DFS Army right now before prices go up!!
Good Luck Army!