Welcome once again MMA fans to another Saturday night card. This weekend we have a 12-fight card in Argentina to look forward to. We have some interesting matchups as well as odds in general on this card. I can’t stress this enough every card but especially this one, pay attention to all our coaches notes in slack leading up to the fights.
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As always have some fun in tournaments this week. Just remember the Golden Rule! While chasing after the big payout is enticing always remember bankroll management. I am a firm believer in the 80-20 rule. Which is 80% of your allocated bankroll for the night in cash games and 20% in tournaments. Remember to take advantage of our Research Station and Domination Station. Plus check out the podcast, and follow me on Twitter (@MMACashAssassin) for the latest MMA and DFS Army news! Let’s break down these fights.
For those of you new to MMA here is a breakdown of the scoring used on Draftkings.
DFS MMA UFC Fight Night 140 Fighter Advice
Fights to Target In Cash
First off before I give breakdowns here. What we are looking for in cash games is safety with a nice floor. It might be taking a high priced favorite in a good spot. It could also be a value play based on odds and pricing. Often times in cash I will look to stack a fight specifically if it has the potential to go 5 rounds (always the main event on the card or a championship fight). Now both sides of a fight may not be cash viable in a fight but, at least 1 of them is under this group.
Ponzinibbio (-280) 9k vs Magny (+240) 7.2k
Ponzinibbio is a solid striker (lands 4.23 Significant Strikes per minute. He has good power and solid leg kicks. Magny is an ok striker (3.84 SS’s) and has good takedowns (TD’s) 2.83 per fight.
This is the main event so, we potentially have 5 rounds of action here. In short. I am stacking this fight in cash and moving on.
For tournaments lets see how we should attack this. Vegas is pretty confident that this fight will end early with an Inside The Distance (ITD) prop of (-275). With the most likely scenerio being by way of Ponzinibbio (-150 to win ITD). Let’s take a look at our DFS Army exclusive Research Station and see what it thinks.
Along with these solid numbers he is also popping off as the best value play on the entire card. This all makes Ponzinibbio a very strong play in tournaments on draftkings. With all this said I think Magny is worth getting some exposure to as well. In a win he would most likely be doing it via takedowns and advances. Most likely I will have close to 100% exposure to this fight. Overall Ponzinibbio is my preferred play.
Lamas (-200) 8.7k vs Elkins (+170) 7.5k
Lamas is a good striker (2.73 SS’s per minute) and has solid leg kicks. He is also an aggresive fighter. He has shown in the past that he can be susceptible to TD’s. Elkins is coming into this fight winning 6 of his last 7. He is a decent striker (3.29 SS’s) and has decent submissions. He is tough and has solid TD’s (2.64 per fight).
Vegas is leaning on this one going to decision (-195). Just based on this alone I think it will be difficult for Lamas to reach value at his salary on draftkings. This makes him more of a tournament play for me. Elkins on the otherhand has a decent floor for his price tag. This puts him firmly in play as punt in all formats. Overall I will have some exposure to both in tournaments and am strongly considering Elkins for my cash lineup.
Pantoja (-340) 9.3k vs Sasaki (+280) 6.9k
Pantoja is a good striker (4.42 SS’s) and has solid leg kicks. Sasaki is a decent striker (2.12 SS’s) and has ok submissions. He is tough and has solid TD’s (3.14 per fight).
Vegas is split on if this goes to decision or not. Either way it will probably be Pantoja doing so (+145 to win ITD and +155 to win via dec).
Looking at our Research Station numbers above both fighters are in play for cash games. It just depends on your lineup construction. Sasaki is the cheapest fighter on the card. If I can get 20-30 pts at his salary I can live with that in cash. By paying down it allows so much more value to open up top. Pantoja is also in play for his safety (I even toyed with idea of stacking this in cash games as well). In tournaments Pantoja is my preferred play. Just remember he will most likely need to outscore everyone around him to be on the optimal lineup. In tournaments I don’t like Sasaki nearly as much as I do in cash and will be mostly likely fading him. Overall my preferred play is Pantoja.
Narimani (-350) 9.1k vs Santos (+290) 7.1k
Narimani is solid all-around. He is a solid striker (3 SS’s) and has good TD’s (6 per fight). He only has 1 fight in the UFC so all those TD’s were from 1 fight. So, those numbers are from a very small sample size. Santos is taking this fight on short notice and is making his UFC debut. He is ok overall but, does tend to gas after the 1st round.
Vegas is slightly leaning on this one going to decision (-120). Narimani is the 2nd best value play on the entire card behind only Ponzinibbio going by our Research Station projections. I think he is a great play in all formats and a great pivot off of Pantoja in tournaments. Santos is only someone I want very small exposure to if I am building 20+ lineups. Overall my preferred play is Narimani.
Prazeres (-165) 8.6k vs Fabinski (+145) 7.6k
Prazeres is a decent striker (2.48 SS’s) and has good TD’s (4.15 per fight). He has very good Jiu Jitsu (is a blackbelt). Fabinski is a good wrestler and has solid TD’s (7.33 per fight). He is a very active fighter and has good cardio.
Vegas is very strong on this fight going to decision (-285). Both fighter have decent props if fight plays out that way (Prazeres +130 win by dec and Fabinski +200)
Going off these numbers. Fabinski is the best value play of the sub 8k fighters. I love the upside he brings with his TD’s and think he is playable in all formats on draftkings. Prazeres is also someone I think warrants some exposure to as well. My prefered play is Fabinski.
Pinedo (-220) 8.5k vs Powell (+180) 7.7k
Pinedo is taking this fight on short notice and making his UFC debut. He is a solid striker with ok combos. He has decent submissions and is solid in the clinch. Powell is a tough fighter and has a solid chin. He is by far the more experienced fighter in this matchup.
Vegas is siding with this fight ending ITD (-170). Overall Pinedo has multiple ways he can win this fight. I think he is playable in all formats at his pricetag. Powell doesn’t interest me much at all. I don’t think he has high enough output in the stand up. I am taking a risk and siding with Pinedo and playing him in all formats.
Fights to Target in Tournaments
Unlike the cash fights from above. These tournament fights carry greater risk. While they may have a lower floor these fights have higher ceilings. Which when mixed with the right amount of cash plays can yield huge dividends in tournaments.
Rountree (-175) 8.8k vs Walker (+155) 7.4k
Rountree is an ok striker (2.31 SS’s) and has big power. His only knock is after the 1st round he tends to gas rapidly. Walker will have the size and reach advantage here. He is an ok striker and has solid power.
This has the highest ITD prop (-425) on the entire card according to Vegas. With the winner most likely being Rountree (-135 win ITD).
This is 1 of my favorite fights to target in tournaments. We have to scenarios that will mostly likely play out here. The first one is Rountree gets a 1st round finish and puts up 100+ draftkings points. The second and less likely one is Walker is able to weather the 1st round storm and finish off a gassed out Rountree in the later rounds. I will have heavier exposure to Rountree personally but, will have several lineups with Walker as well. Walker will be the lower owned fighter and that means I am comfortable taking some shots with him in tournaments. Overall my preferred play is Rountree.
Bandenay (-245) 8.9k vs Arnett (+205) 7.3k
Bandenay is a good striker (6.46 SS’s). He has solid kicks and good knees. Arnett is a tough fighter. He is an ok striker (2.31 SS’s).
We have another fighter that Vegas sees ending ITD (-240). With Bandenay most likely getting the finish (+100 to win ITD).
Arnett doesn’t interest me from a draftkings perspective at all. He is to low output in a fight he will most likely lose. Bandenay I do have interest in. He is just one of the higher priced fighters I will be mixing and matching in my lineups. I won’t be overly heavy on him though just because he is dependent on an early finish to put up a big score. Overall my preferred play is Bandenay.
Vera (-320) 9.2k vs Cannetti (+260) 7k
Vera is an ok striker (3.21 SS’s) and has good leg kicks. He has decent Jiu Jitsu to go along with it. Cannetti is an ok striker (2.67 SS’s).
Vegas is slightly leaning on this fight ending early (-160 ITD). With Vera being the benefactor at (-120 win ITD).
With Vera being the 2nd highest priced fighter on draftkings he really needs a early finish to reach value. I do think its possible. I just prefer Narimani a little more because he has more paths to victory through TD’s. I don’t have much interest in Cannetti at all. Overall my preferred play is Vera.
Ferreira (-170) 8.4k vs Heinisch (+150) 7.8k
Ferreira is a tough fighter. He is a good grappler and has good TD’s (2.73 per fight). He is a very low output striker (1.84 SS’s) and has a suspect chin. Heinisch is an ok striker and has solid power.
This fight is expected to end via stoppage with an ITD prop of (-225). I don’t think Ferreira has enough upside here at 8.4k on draftkings. He just isn’t high output enough for me. I am going to take a chance on Heinisch here. I think all he needs to do is crack Ferreira and he gets the finish. I will mostly likely have exposure to both fighters in tournaments but, I will have more exposure to Heinisch and he is my preferred play.
Most Fade Worthy Fights on Card
Staropoli (+110) 8.2k vs Aldana (-130) 8k
In cash games I don’t hate Aldana as a value play. We just have to monitor the odds after weigh-ins Friday. At current odds I have little interest in Staropoli at all. If anything changes in regards to this fight on my thoughts. I will post my thoughts in Slack Friday.
Botelho (-150) 8.3k vs Calvillo (+130) 7.9k
This fight is slightly leaning on going to decision. I just don’t like the upside much of either fighter. On this card I would rather target fights with better upside.
If any of my thoughts change I will post them in chat.
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