Welcome to Week 12! Let’s keep it rolling after a great Thanksgiving Slate with a 10 game Main Slate!
My name is Josh Thomas, and I write the Chalk Donkey article for the main slate for NFL VIPs as well as focusing on the showdown/single game slates on both sites. In this article I’ll break down the games on the slate, what a Chalk Donkey is, identify who those players are at QB, RB, WR, TE, and DEF using our ownership projections and offer some pivots who are poised for big games at low ownership. I’ll justify those pivots using our one of a kind research station and in the process, hopefully, teach you a bit about how to use that research station to identify solid pivots off the chalk.
Check out my NFL Showdown Article where I break down all the GPP winning lineups her
-–> Showdown Smackdown<–
As a reminder, this article identifies who the chalk is each week and provides options on how to either differentiate your lineup with it or pivot. Chalk isn’t always bad and I play chalk every week. There are times we have a chalk player and while I provide an option to pivot here, if Geek, CashKeg, or Marley say “All In” on the chalk, guess what? We go “ALL IN” on the chalk
Week Eleven Recap:
Short, sweet and to the point again this week, after we had a solid week eleven!
Matt Ryan dudded, and while Eli Manning wasn’t much better, he was at least cheaper and lower owned than Ryan and was a great early only play. The rest of our QB gpp pivots ended up having pretty poor days, but it was really all about making sure you had Drew Brees in your lineup anyway.
My boy Saquon Barkley crushed again and I really think you have to play him any time he is on the main slate. His floor is so high, and his ceiling is ridiculous in this offense. Love him every week for the rest of the year, regardless of matchup. Our pivot off the chalk RB’s was Kerryon Johnson and he had a great game cut short by an injury. Still he was able to get over 17 DK points, which is 3x value and could have been even more had he been able to finish.
I also wrote up that I liked Peyton Barber as a cheap pivot because the Giants suck. And Barber cracked 20 points for the first time this year, hitting 6x value.
At WR, ol’ Seth Roberts didn’t do much but was still good for 2.5x value and he opened up quite a bit for you elsewhere. Obviously would have liked him to do more, but it wasn’t the end of the world if you rostered him.
Zach Ertz was absolutely shut down by the New Orleans Saints defense (and so was the rest of the offense) and that hurt my overweight position on him, but really it just capped my ceiling GPP because of how highly owned he was in cash games. James O’Shaugnessy was the TE I paired with Ertz in cash and even though he didn’t do much, the salary savings let me get up guys like Kamara, which pushed me over the edge in all my cash games.
At defense, the Houston Texans were the highest scoring D on the day and were my cash game defense as well. Those 13 points were great and in fact, all three of the defenses we touted here had decent games with the Steelers ending up with 9 DK Points and the chalk Cardinals getting you 4.
Overall, it was a solid cash week for me and a mediocre GPP week. I was able to avoid a lot of the chalk lineup killers and I’m ready to crush it again this week.
One way that I break down rosters is through our Research Station. We will have a stand-alone research station for the Thursday games this year, which I’m pumped about, check it out here! –> NFL Main Slate Research Station
Week Twelve Preview:
Hm. Disappointing, no 60 point totals.. I was getting used to that! We do have a fun slate of games Sunday though with divisional matchups, matchups with playoff implications, and matchups of teams that are dead in the water but still likely to put up a ton of points.
The first game we always look at is the game with the highest total and that is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. the San Francisco 49ers. Jameis Winston vs. Nick Mullens. Not a matchup you would have guessed would happen about 4 months ago, but Fantasy Football is crazy like that and I think that both QB’s are actually cash viable this week. Mullens has been decent and he’s cheap and Winston leads the high powered Bucs offense against a mediocre 49ers defense. I’m much higher on Winston but don’t count Mullens out against this awful Bucs defense.
Indianapolis Colts vs. the Miami Dolphins is the next highest total on the slate with the Colts being more than a touchdown favorite. Andrew Luck has been slinging it lately and should be in the conversation for Cash Game QB. He has been priced up though and I think there are some other lower priced options in just as good of spots. The Colts are at home too which means that T.Y. Hilton is in play as well. Ryan Tannehill is projected to start coming off an injury and makes a sneaky GPP play.
After that, we get a good mix of games right around 47 total points. My favorite to target is the Giants/Eagles because of my man crush Saquon, but he and Odell Beckham Jr. are priced up to the point that you might not be able to fit them, at least in cash games. Eli Manning is in play again too, especially given the situation with the Eagles secondary. The injuries continue to pile up and they have only 5 players active from the 15 they started training camp with. All ten have injuries of some sort.
After that, we have the Patriots as massive 10.5 point favorites over the Jets. It looks like Sony Michel will be back and that dangerous tandem of him and James White should slash this Jets defense apart. The Jets have been getting crushed by slot receivers as well so a Julian Edelman/Tom Brady stack is in play too.
The Chargers/Cardinals game is interesting, mostly because of the news that Melvin Gordon is dinged up and might not play. Coach Anthony Lynn was non-committal on Friday about him playing this game and we need to exercise caution. Tyrell the Gazelle Williams also popped up on the injury report so Rivers might be without two of his better weapons in this game.
The final game I have a lot of interest in is Cincinnati/Cleveland in the battle of Ohio. Baker Mayfield is in a great spot and I want to get him in a ton of lineups, but I also want to make sure he ‘wakes up feeling dangerous’ is there a way that @adamschefter can report that for me?
It should be another fun week of football and there is only 6 weeks left before playoffs! Let us get to the Chalk Donkeys!
What is a Chalk Donkey?
First, let’s break down what I consider to be ‘chalk’. In golf, I break down the chalk by price range, but for NFL I think it’s important to break it down by position. Note these percentages are for the main slate. On a smaller slate, the chalk ranges become a little bit higher, I have no problem playing a QB at 30% ownership on a 3 game slate, but on a 12 gamer I’d rather pivot.
Quarterback: >20% Any time we have a Quarterback staring down 20% ownership or 1/5 of the field, it’s worth pivoting off of them. Quarterback scoring is often very flat and there isn’t a huge difference in point production most weeks, win or lose. Anytime there’s a chalk QB I almost always pivot.
Running Back: >20% Similar to QB, Any time an RB creeps up towards this 20% range we want to consider a pivot. I’m less likely to fade RB’s in smash spots at high ownership than I am QB’s just because of the ability of RBs to have massive games and outscore their closest competitor by 10-15 points. (See Todd Gurley, 2017)
Wide Receiver: 15%-20% With 3 spots for Wide Receiver on all three sites, you have the opportunity for ownership to spread out a little more on WR’s than the rest of the position groups. That being said, ownership almost always pools on 4-5 WR’s with most above 20%. There are very few WR’s that are matchup safe and many tend to be game flow dependent. Many times we see WR’s in smash spots drop single-digit points at high ownership because of the variance of a football game.
Tight End: >10% With only one spot on your roster for a TE unless you roster two with a flex, we don’t usually see players with massive ownership here. Anything over 10% would be considered chalky for me, but for the most part, I’m not really fading TE ownership most weeks unless Gronk looks like a 30% owned play.
Defense: >15% Similar to TE, I’m not often fading a defense as we usually don’t have a chalk donkey here and there isn’t always a huge spread in the top 10 defenses of the week in terms of point production.
One thing to remember as you construct lineups, players are ‘Chalk Donkeys’ for a reason, they are perceived to be good plays. Don’t fade the ‘Chalk Donkeys’ just because they are going to be highly owned. Very rarely does no chalk hit, and often times you find some of these ‘Chalk Donkeys’ in GPP winning lineups. In fact, 83% of Milly Maker winners in NFL rostered a player who was 20% owned or higher and 45% rostered a player that was 30% owned or higher!
Now let’s get to the Chalk Donkeys of the week. In the next section of this article, I will highlight one or two players at each position that are projected to be highly owned and give either a reason to fade or play them. I’ll also provide a pivot or two who are projected to come in with single digit ownership. Note projected ownerships are for Draftkings you can find the other sites on our Domination Station.
Here are this week’s top 5 projected owned players for Draftkings.
We have ownership projections updating all weekend for all sites in our Domination Station! Check it out here!
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Quarterback:
Here are the top 5 QB’s in projected ownership for DK and their projected points
Lamar Jackson: DK $5700/FD $7400/FD2 $10,700
Projected Ownership: 14.3%
I want to this hate, I really do, but I just don’t think I can tell you to not play Lamar Jackson this week. If this was legitimately ANY other team in the NFL I would be all over the Jackson fade but the Oakland Raiders are arguably the worst team in football.
Jackson broke out last week with what looks to be a ceiling game as he rushed for 119 yards and threw for 150 yards. It’s not likely that he ever has a game where he throws for multiple TD’s as he’s an awful passer, but the rushing provides such a safe floor that at his price he can hit value pretty easily. If he doesn’t get the 100-yard bonus, he likely has to find the end zone to get over 20 points whether that’s rushing or threw passing.
I think he’s a fine cash play as his floor is so high but he’s not necessarily a guy I’m going to target in GPP as I think his ceiling isn’t great because he can’t throw the ball. He also has potential for multiple turnovers, but against this Raiders defense it’s not that likely.
He’s really cheap on Fanduel and I like him a bit more there even though we don’t get the bonus for rushing. Either way he’s worth using in a ladder or cash games. He should be highly owned in head to heads and it might be worth just eating the chalk there and differentiating elsewhere.
Baker Mayfield: DK $5500/FD $7500/FD2 $10,900
Projected Ownership: 5.5%
Mayfield is super cheap and actually has the highest rocket arm rating of any quarterback on the main slate.
He gets to go up against the Cincinnati Bengals pass defense that has been incredibly bad. We have been targetting QB’s that are going up against the Bucs D every week, but the reality is that the Bengals are worse, giving up on average 26.2 DK points per game to opposing QB’s.
The Browns are road dogs here which makes me a little concerned about running Mayfield out in cash, but since the change to Robbie Kitchen’s as Offensive Coordinator for the Browns, this offense has looked great. Mayfield has completed 74% of his passes since the change and thrown for 5 TD’s and one pick. The Bengals are also giving up 30 yards a game to opposing QB’s (not including Lamar Jackson tearing them up) and Mayfield has rushed for over 20 yards, three times this year.
I think Mayfield is a great play not only in GPP, but in hybrid cash lineups as well. Pairing him with David Njoku who has an excellent matchup and has proven to be a favorite target of Mayfield’s and running it back with a guy like Joe Mixon who has a great matchup too, or Tyler Boyd who is finally priced down makes a great game stack.
Other low owned QB’s I like: Eli Manning, Russell Wilson, Andy Dalton
Running Back:
Here are the top 5 RB’s in projected ownership for DK and their projected points
Melvin Gordon III: DK $8600/FD $8900/FD2 $16,300
Projected Ownership: 36.85%
Melvin Gordon looks like the chalk of the chalk this week in a great matchup with the Cardinals but there are concerns about his health.
Some concern for #Chargers RB Melvin Gordon. Anthony Lynn said “we’ll have to decide if it’s worth holding him back or just letting him go." Gordon was is questionable with knee/hamstring injuries.
— Adam Ronis (@AdamRonis) November 23, 2018
They are playing a 2-8 Cardinals team and if there is any concern with his health I would assume that the Chargers limit him or hold him out entirely in a game that really doesn’t matter. They also have a tough matchup upcoming with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
This situation is one that I just want to entirely avoid. I imagine that others will feel the same way and his ownership will come down with players likely pivoting to Saquon Barkley which is what I plan on doing myself.
If Gordon sits, Austin Ekeler becomes the MASSIVE chalk, like 60-70% owned. You have to lock him in in cash and move on at his price as he lets get you all the studs.
What my hope is, is that Gordon is active and in GPP I roster Ekeler anyways. I would imagine that the Chargers have no issues with this Cardinals defense and there’s a real scenario that Gordon plays a quarter or two and hands it over the Ekeler for the rest of the game. This is a GPP only play, but one that can win you a GPP if he goes off.
Christian McCaffrey: DK $7900/FD $8400/FD2 $ 14,900
Projected Ownership: 11.94%
This is a great pivot play off the chalkier Gordon/Barkley with a guy who is likely to have a similar floor and maybe even a higher ceiling than those two in a game against the Seahawks.
The Seahawks are giving up almost 50 yards receiving and 5 receptions, which is about exactly what CMC has been averaging this year.
The floor is so high for McCaffrey and the traditional concern is that he gets vultured by Cam Newton at the goal line but that hasn’t been the case recently and he has over 50% of the rush attempts inside the 5-yard line. Newton is also dinged up with an ankle injury and I think he likely is limited in rushing ability this week so that is an even better outlook for CMC.
He’s a great tournament pivot off the chalk and I think he is viable in hybrids/ladders. It’s no problem to roster CMC/Barkley if we get the Ekeler chalk play.
Other low owned RB’s I like this week: Leonard Fournette (I think he’s actually cash viable this week, love the volume), Joe Mixon, Isaiah Crowell
Wide Receiver:
Here are the top 5 WR’s in projected ownership for DK and their projected points
Mike Evans: DK $7700/FD $7900/FD2 $14,600
Projected Ownership: 33.69%
This is basically just an ownership pivot for me. I like Evans, he’s a heck of a QB and if I’m rostering Jameis Winston I’m ok pairing him with Evans, but anywhere else in GPP this is a full fade for me with the ownership. There are SO many other options and it’s not like Evans is the safest player in the world. His last four weeks of DK Points are: 33, 8.1, 2.6, 32.9. Talk about a roller coaster.
Some people will be concerned about Richard Sherman locking him down, but Sherman never leaves the left side of the field and Evans only runs about 40% of his routes from that side, so it shouldn’t be too big of an issue. Again, it has nothing to do with the matchup/skill set its about the ownership. If he has one of those under 10 point games, you can essentially knock out 1/3 of the field.
If he has a big day, its likely that Winston has a big day so that’s why I think it makes a ton of sense to roster them together and if they dud you sink the whole lineup and the rest are safe.
The game theory fade makes too much sense here even in a great game environment, and one I’ll be employing this week.
David Moore: DK $3700/FD $5800/FD2 $7300
Projected Ownership: 3.32%
The wide receiver position is ugly on this slate and there aren’t a ton of options. David Moore is a guy that I really like in big GPP’s as he will be way under owned and is super cheap, he also has the opportunity to have a huge game against a weak Carolina Secondary.
This is a bit of a boom or bust play, but I love the air yards that he is getting. His Average Depth of Target is 15.6 yards downfield, and he’s averaging almost 50 yards per game. He’s also had 8 targets in two of his last three games and led the team in targets during that time. Doug Baldwin has missed practice all week with a groin injury, but I think he plays and if he does I still like Moore, but if he doesn’t, Moore becomes almost a lock button.
He will likely see James Bradberry in coverage who has been pretty good, but Moore should be able to get open, especially given the amount of time that Russell Wilson should have in the pocket against this poor Carolina pass rush.
Deep GPP play but should be low owned and these are the darts you sometimes have to throw in those GPP’s with 100K plus entries.
Other low owned WR’s I like: Willie Snead (love him this week, I’d likely pair him with Jackson because if Willie has a day so will Jackson), Adam Humphries, Sterling Shepard (pivot/leverage play off Barkley/OBJ)
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Tight End:
Here are the top 5 TE’s in projected ownership for DK and their projected points
Boy, did Zach Ertz dud last week, and not surprisingly at the same price this week, he’s not going to the be the massive chalk again. This is a great spot to jump back on though as he really is a WR1 playing TE. I think a great GPP play would be to slide Ertz into the Flex and have Kittle at TE (or the other way around). Especially in a week with not a ton of WR options, these two are some of the best options considering their price even compared to other WR’s there. TD upside for both. Kittle might be favorite given that he is Mullen’s most targeted player.
If you would have told me preseason that Rob Gronkowski would be $5100 at any point during the season, I would have told you I would be 100% in on him, but now here we are, he’s at that price coming off injury and I just don’t think I’m that interested. He has been a band aid this year and its possible that he doesn’t suit up and even if he does, the player I want in the Patriots passing game is Julian Edelman. Worth a shot in GPP, but not somewhere I’ll likely be going.
All of the chalk options at TE are viable this week, but here’s one that is cheap and looking to be underowned given the opportunity and the fact that he dudded last week.
James O’Shaughnessy: DK $2600/FD $4000/FD2 $5000
Projected Ownership: 1.93%
I’m going right back to the well with James O’Shaughnessy this week even though he burned me last week. I likely won’t be plugging him in in cash given what happened last week, but he’s in a great spot again.
Essentially minimum price across the industry again, O’Shaughnessy has found himself in a starting role for the Jacksonville Jaguars since the injury to Austin Sefarian-Jenkins. Last week, in a prime matchup against the Steelers, he only ran ten routes and was only targeted twice, but no other TE did much either and it was likely a result of Blake Bortles being bad.
The Buffalo Bills have been great against TE’s and passers in general, but Bortles likely has nowhere else to go. If they can establish the run game with Fournette though it should open up some opportunities for O’Shaugnessy in the middle.
This is strictly a GPP play and one I’ll likely only have about 5% of in 150 lineups as most of my lineups will have Ertz/Kittle or one of the other chalk TE’s.
Other low owned TE Options: Antonio Gates, Jeff Heuermann, Vance McDonald.
Defense:
Back to my old “Don’t Get Cute” motto here. Generally, I don’t like to pay up for Defense, especially in cash. In Cash/GPP/Hybrid I’ll be sticking with the following defenses.
Chargers: Josh Rosen and the Cardinals Offense has been brutal and the Chargers D has had five double-digit point weeks and 10 interceptions on the year. Don’t overthink it.
Ravens: David Carr and Jon Gruden continue to scream and yell each other on the sideline, which is clearly a positive for the defense. Ravens are at home, and while they don’t typically score very well, I think this is the week they break out.
Patriots: The Pats have been a sneaky good defense this year with a 20 point performance and 19 point performance to their record. They now get the Josh McCown led Jets and while they are on the road, I have no problem rolling them out.
Broncos: Cheap defense option, see my reasoning below in the Final Fade.
Final Fade:
The Steelers offense continues to be priced up and are now on the road against the Denver Broncos. The road narrative for Big Ben is a thing, and the Broncos defense has been surprisingly pretty good even when they lose. I think that the Broncos are in play here. Chris Harris Jr. is maybe the best slot cornerback in the league and will shut down JuJu Smith-Schuster and we know that Big Ben loves to turn the ball over. I don’t want to pay up for an offense on the road in a tough matchup with a low total. No Steelers for me this week.
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Last Play:
Be smart with your bankroll this week. Don’t chase losses, and don’t go crazy if you won last week. It’s important to stick to the process that has worked for you. For me it means that I’m playing the majority of my cash games in H2H’s, the rest in double and triple ups, and my GPP exposure is mostly in single or three entry max. I’ve had a solid first half of the season but the volume I’m going to play will stay the same because it’s a long season. I want to be profitable for the year, not just one week.
I’m really looking forward to working with you guys throughout the year and can’t wait to see those helmets crushing at the top of the leaderboard! Give me a shout in my coaching channel with any questions you have! #dfsupnorth-nfl-pga
Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to the games on Sunday.