The DFS n’ Donuts Shop
The modus operandi of the majority of my articles and podcasts is to deliver compelling evidence through analytics, trends, and useful data as to why a player or team is an ideal target to invest in. This article is slightly different than what you’ll see in most of my articles. In this weekly column, I will provide a light breakdown of the slate, give a brief overview of what Vegas has to say about the current week of games and highlight a few significant values on FanDuel and DraftKings based on some analytical data. This article is an early overview of the main slate and should be used as a building block and guideline to develop your strategies and start to envision possible paths to victory.
Salute to the Member Success
A massive GET SOME to a brand new member who won $200,000 in the FanDuel Milly Maker in his first week as a member of the DFS Army!
Kudos to a few of our NBA member wins from this week as well including a $100,000 winner!!!!!
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Value Targets for Monday, November 19th
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De’Aaron Fox is in a fantastic spot due to his price tag on DraftKings ($6,100). He’s scored 72.50, 25.75, 44.00, 38.25, 38.75, 46.00 and 26.25 points in his last seven games. That’s 5-of-7 games that he scored 6-12x his salary in pts/$.
He has had a usage rate of 22.5% or higher in 11 of the last 13 games and has scored 19 plus actual points in 5 of the last 6 games. I can’t figure out what the DraftKings algorithm has cooked up for Fox but I’m all over this play.
Dorian Finney-Smith (DFS) has played 22 minutes or more in 7 of the last 8 games. He has produced games of 35.25, 23.75, 23.00, 22.25, and 28.25 DraftKings points in five of those contests. He’s priced at mid-3k on DK and 4k on FanDuel. While his usage rate remains low the Dallas Mavericks are likely missing Wes Matthews and also have JJ Barea listed as questionable. There could be a plethora of extra minutes for DFS. On FanDuel, he’s an exception “Drop Score” target for tournaments.
T.J. Warren is a decent value on DraftKings and makes for an exceptional cash game target. In the past five starts, Warren has scored at least 34.50 DraftKings points and has scored 21-29 actual points in each game. He’s also playing heavy minutes which is something I look for when selecting my cash plays. Minutes equals opportunity which yields points and value. Warren has played 37 minutes or more in all five starts since November 8th.
Montrezl Harrell is another solid DraftKings cash game option as he’s in a delicious matchup against the sloppy and fast-paced Atlanta Hawks. Harrell is getting plenty of minutes these days and has a usage rate in the low-2o% range over the past 10-games. He’s scored double-digit points in all but two games this season and has scored 32 plus DraftKings points in five straight games. The Clippers have scored at least 105 points in every single game this season and they come into Monday with a 118 point implied team total as 7.5 point road favorites.
Kyrie Irving seems underpriced on FanDuel for his matchup against Kemba Walker “defense”. Irving has scored over 44 FanDuel points in four of the last six games, including 54.50, 65.40, and 70.90 point performances. The other three games were 36.10, 39.70, and 44.40 points. He has a massive floor and ceiling combination and can win you the slate if he pops off against a team with terrible defense in the paint and an opposing point guard that will struggle to stay in front of Kyrie off the dribble.
Dennis Smith Jr. could find himself with extra run at the guard spot today if Barea misses. In the last four games that Smith Jr. has playe 30 plus minutes in, he’s scored 36.75, 37.75, 23.50, and 36.00 DraftKings points. He’s priced at just $5,000 over there on Monday and would represent elite value and upside at that price point.
Dennis Schroder shares the same first name as Smith Jr. but he doesn’t share the same price tag. However, on both FanDuel and DraftKings I think he’s a tremendous cash game option due to his matchup and the lack of bodies the Thunder have to give him a breather. Russell Westbrook, Alex Abrines, and Terrance Ferguson are all out. Schroder will pretty much be backed up by Raymond Felton and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (who will get minutes on the wing). Schroder has scored 38.5, 40.8, and 50.5 in the last three games.
Paul George is an elite cash game option due to the same reasons as Dennis Schroder is. Not only is the matchup with the fast-paced Kings delectable but their defense is terrible. PG13 has scored 58.20, 45.60, 46.60, 59.90, and 61.20 FanDuel points (similar on DraftKings as well) in the last five games. Lock and load for cash games.
Two Minute Warning
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-Donuts