We will be going back to the position breakdown this week for NFL week 11 Sunday main slate.  I will be focusing on position by position break down of players I like for cash games.  GPPs are still a big part of my game, but the majority of my action will be cash games H2Hs each Sunday as we get a lot of volume and variance in NFL.

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Quarterbacks

Cam Newton – He has the highest floor of any QB this week.  His rushing floor is what helps and gets one of the best matchups on the board with the 31st ranked DVOA at his feet.  They have the 2nd highest implied team total this week and I just don’t see how they don’t thrash the Lions.  Mitch Trubisky (my boy!) tore this defense up last week and Newton should shred them just the same here on Sunday.  Mitch put up 39 DK points last week if you remember.  If you are looking for safety, then don’t look any further.

Carson Wentz– Road dogs in the Mercedes Dome should full of fantasy goodness.  I think he will be my #1 GPP QB, but also like him for cash here as the game script is in his favor and the Saints are going to put up points.  He could be the highest scoring QB on the day if this game shoots out.  I love pairing him up with his stud TE in Ertz and running it back with Thomas.  We haven’t seen a massive game yet from Wentz and this could be the game where we see him put up big numbers in the dome.  I like dome games this time of year where we don’t have to worry about the crappy weather.

Ryan Fitzpatrick- He burned us last week, but going back to the well here with Fitzmagic.  He is sitting in a 52 team total and only a 1 point dog.  The giants are ranked 25th in pass defense DVOA and 28th in overall defense DVOA.  Fitzmagic is going to get it going in a bounce-back game against the Giants and I have no problem going back with the man.  He did not throw a touchdown last week and turned it over three times and still almost gave us 20 DK points.  I think he puts a few in the box this week and puts up a 30 burger for us on DK.

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley –  He is going to be the highest owned RB on the slate and I would not overthink this.  Tampa Bay is 21st in rush DVOA and an even worst 26th in DVOA against running backs out of the backfield.  Saquon catches a ton of balls out of the backfield and if the Giants are going to have any shot at this division they have to to take advantage of matchups like this that are very favorable.  He has an extremely high floor in this matchup and a ceiling like no other on this slate.  Do not overthink this play and just plug him in cash games and have your fair share in GPPs.

Melvin Gordon– Gordon is behind Barkley if paying up for a 2nd RB here.  They are 7.5 point home favorites and he is a legit 3 down back.  If the Broncos can keep this game close, then I’d feel a bit better about this pick.  That is really the only worry I have for playing Gordon in this spot and would not choose him over Barkley if you are choosing between the two.  If you are paying up though at RB and punting WR, then he is squarely in play.

David Johnson – I can only imagine if you drafted David Johnson that you are excited that Byron Leftwich is not calling plays for the Cardinals.  He is finally getting the touches he deserves and it is starting to show in the boxscore.  I really did not understand how you can be an NFL offensive coordinator and not understand to get one of the best running backs in the country the damn ball.  He gets a dream matchup this weekend at home against the 100 million dollar man who is in full tank mode.  They don’t care if they win this game and this should be another heavy workload for DJ.  I don’t like him as much as Barkley or Gordon, but he is def back into cash consideration every week going forward with Leftwich calling the plays.

Wide Receivers

Michael Thomas – This could of easily ben Odell Beckham here and he is a great cash play as well, but I don’t really want to run both Barkley and Beckham in cash games, so I’ll go Thomas here.  He is the clear cut #1 WR this week and has been catching everything in site.  This should be a fun game to watch for both DFS purposes and as a fan of the game.  The Eagles secondary is pretty banged up and Thomas will continue to catch a ton of balls and thrive even at the hefty price tag.  You can always make a case to fade a guy at this price tag in GPPs, but Drew Brees at home in a high O/U game seems pretty safe to me.  Tre’Quan Smith is a great pivot in GPPs as he will be much lower owned than Thomas here.

Kenny Golladay – Golladay week!  Tate is gone as we know and Marvin Jones has been ruled out.  Golladay is going to HAVE to see targets this game and he saw 13 targets last week.  I think this is easily a 10 target floor with huge upside.  He will be extremely chalky, but I am not sure how you fade him in this spot.  This is chalk I will eat, as he has shown he has upside in flashes and if the target volume is going to be in the double digits, then I want all the Golladay I can handle at this price point.

Corey Davis – I think he is going to be chalk after the big game he put up against the Patriots last week and he is really their only true healthy WR.  He is fine in cash but would be the one I’d fade in GPPs. I really want to get to Ertz in cash, as you can see the only TE I am writing up this week, so you are going to need to play a few cheap WRs this week and Davis and Golladay are going to be your chalkier plays this week.  I feel like Golladay is better than Davis just with the flow and a more consistent QB throwing him the ball.

Tight Ends

Zach Ertz – There are so many high priced guys I like this week and it is going to be hard to fit all of them in.  Ertz is by far the safest TE on the board and is the leading WR on the Eagles.  It is going to come down to fading one of these guys in cash and I am not quite sure where I want to go when constructing cash lineups this week.  You might have to take some cheap WR and a cheap RB to make a few of these expensive pieces to fit.  There is no need to point out any metrics against the Saints as Ertz has seen double-digit targets in all but 2 games and double-digit fantasy points in all but 2 games as well.  Fire him up with confidence in this spot.

Defense

Arizona Cardinals – Oakland is in pure tank mode now and really has looked horrific all year long.  Cardinals are 4 point favorites with a horrendous QB at the helm and I am just banking on Carr making bad decisions again and turning the ball over here. They are my preferred defense on all sites.  I am not scared of Carr and his misfit WR crew in Robers and LaFell.  Oakland is going to continue to get pounded each and every week.

Houston Texans – The Texans are on 16 days of rest here and playing the Deadskins.  It looks like Andy Reid made the call to boot Alex Smith out of KC and turn the keys over to Mahomes.  Texans should get after Smith here as the Redskins have only beat 1 team with a winning record so that 6 – 3 record is a bit misleading.  The Texans are also ranked in the top 10 in pressuring the QB and will be all over the Skins missing 3 offensive linemen this week.

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Keg Stands

This week in Keg Stands I don’t want to talk about a GPP approach, but more on analyzing your data you have collected over the first 6 weeks of the season to continue to build up that ROI.  I have noticed that my DK h2h matches are right around the 60% mark which is not bad, but my FD h2h win percentage is 75% with a 36% ROI as you can see below.  That tells me that I have been doing much better on FD than DK so far and I will push some of my volume on FanDuel this week as I continue to watch my win % and ROI.  You can make the best lineups in the world each week, but if you are not in the right contests and do not watch how you are doing, then you will never be as successful at DFS as you could be.  It is important to look back at your data and see where your success is and push some of your money in that direction to increase your ROI.  Please take the time to look at analyze your data and make those decisions to become a more profitable player long term.

 

ROI                                                           WIN

Before I Go…

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