Week 9 College Football Friday Night Slate (October 26, 2018)
AFriedman15 – Aaron Friedman researches and writes college football articles for DFS Army. Aaron is a lifelong resident of the Chicago suburbs and a Northwestern alum and football season ticket holder. College football was Aaron’s first DFS sport and he was thrilled to see it return in 2018. He believes that the thrill, pageantry, and the importance of every game are unparalleled in sports. Aaron enjoys betting on the games and watching everything from #Pac12AfterDark to #MACtion, and especially enjoys the Tuesday-Friday games with so much happening on Saturdays. In real life, Aaron is an IT analyst and with his wife, is the parent to three small dogs. Find Aaron on Twitter at @AFriedman15DFS.
Slate Overview:
This Friday, we have a rare 5-game slate. Anyways, it is a 5-gamer on FD, with 4 games on DK, excluding the LT/FAU matchup. We won’t have as many Friday night games again until Black Friday, so I am looking forward to this slate!
- Louisiana Tech @ Florida Atlantic (O/U 58, -3.5), 6:30pm ET
- Miami-FL (O/U 50, -3.5) @ Boston College 7pm ET
- Indiana (O/U 54, -2.5) @ Minnesota 8pm ET
- Wyoming @ Colorado State (O/U 45, -2.5), 10:00pm ET
- Utah(O/U 54.5, -10) @ UCLA 10:30pm ET
| Team | Spread | ITT | Time(ET) and TV | S&P | Off S&P | Def S&P Rank |
| Louisiana Tech@ | +3.5 | 27.25 | 6:30pm ET(CBSSN) | 81 | 72 | 78 |
| Florida Atlantic | -3.5 | 30.75 | 71 | 43 | 95 | |
| Miami-FL@ | +3.5 | 26.75 | 7pm ET (ESPN) | 16 | 55 | 12 |
| Boston College | -3.5 | 23.25 | 44 | 57 | 40 | |
| Indiana @ | -2.5 | 28.25 | 8pm ET (FS1) | 65 | 79 | 50 |
| Minnesota | +2.5 | 25.75 | 67 | 95 | 45 | |
| Wyoming@ | +2.5 | 21.25 | 10 pm ET (CBSSN) | 92 | 119 | 43 |
| Colorado State | -2.5 | 110 | 85 | 112 | ||
| Utah @ | +10 | 32.25 | 10:30pm ET (ESPN) | 19 | 45 | 16 |
| UCLA | -10 | 22.25 | 86 | 74 | 93 |
QB
***FD CASH LOCK***: Our FD cash lock this week is Colorado State QB Collin Hill (5600 DK/4000 FD), who on Friday will be starting for the first time since 2016, when he started 3 games as a true freshman. The CSU coaching staff is looking for a spark and the 6’5 QB is too cheap not to start, especially in cash games. On DK, it is not quite as clear as Hill is priced more appropriately. On DK, we need to watch out what is going on with Minnesota’s QB situation (Annexstad or Morgan), because Morgan could be the DK play.
“I’m the head coach, and I’m going to make the decision that gives us the best chance to win, and I feel Collin Hill gives us the best chance to win this week,” CSU Head Coach Mike Bobo.
Utah QB Tyler Huntley (1000 DK/10000 FD) has been outstanding of late, and in Utah’s three wins in October, Huntley has completed 53 of 69 passes (76.8%) for 741 yards and 7 TDS (1INT). The reigning Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Week, Huntley has very much rebounded from a slow start. There appears to be a good amount of value on this slate, so I am not concerned about Huntley’s price tag. But no doubt, he will be popular.
With QB Michael Penix going down for the season with a torn ACL Indiana QB Peyton Ramsey (7800 DK/8700 FD) has the job to himself and is going up against a very porous Minnesota defense. The Gophers have allowed 43.3 points/ game and 503.8 yards/game in their 4 Big Ten games thus far, ranking 13 of 14th in both categories. Meanwhile Ramsey is averaging 291.8 yards of total offense in Big Ten competition. Last week, the IU coaching staff inserted Penix in key moments but this week that will not be an option. I wish Ramsey was a little cheaper on DK, but he still feels like the second best option.
What is going on with Florida Atlantic? A year after finished C-USA play undefeated and winning the league championship, they have stumbled to 1-3 in conference. Dual Threat QBs have given them fits and I am willing to take some GPP fliers on Louisiana Tech QB J’Mar Smith (8400 FD) who I believe will have the lowest ownership between Ramsey, Brown, and Smith.
Opposite Ramsey, Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan (4900 DK/6500 FD) could potentially start instead of Zack Annexstad who is dealing with an injured midsection (as of Monday), even as of Thursday afternoon there was still no clarity, but if we get the news, Morgan could be ultra low owned and could be a key cash play.
Overall, a pretty interesting QB slate given that 2 of the top 3 priced QBs could be sitting out.
Fades: BC QB Anthony Brown (6200 FD/8600 FD) was actually leading the country in passing efficiency going into the Purdue game where he absolutely WOATed for this author. Miami’s defense has been very robust and they are 2nd in FBS only allowing 130 passing yards per game. To me, he is decidedly behind Huntley, Ramsey, Smith, Hill, and Morgan if he starts.
We also get Miami QB Malik Rosier (6000 DK/7800 FD), who returns as the starter for Mark Richt’s Hurricanes, but he has been absolutely blasted by the Hurricane fan base who want N’Kosi Perry starting (to the point where The Athletic’s Manny Navarro wrote an article this week titled “The vitriol towards Rosier has to stop). So here are my top 5 reasons to fade Rosier on FD:
- Inconsistent play
- Threat of bringing Perry back into the game.
- Travel/Climate change from Miami to Boston
- Very cool/powerful Red Bandanna game tradition at BC
- More consistent options
- Doug Flutie will be there 🙂
RB
The top play for me is Utah RB Zack Moss (7900 DK/9200 FD) who gets a great matchup. Utah’s offense has been on fire, and part of the reason why is due to a shift in offensive philosophy. In the Utes’ first three games, they had only 47.7% rushing plays compared to 66.7% in their last three games. By using Moss heavily, the passing game has opened up, allowing Hundley to excel of late. I know he will likely be popular, but I still want him in most, if not all, of my lineups.
On DK, Minnesota RB Mohamed Ibrahim (5200 DK/8100 FD) is an elite play at that price. Starting, non-timeshare RBs are almost never priced that low. Backup RB Bryce Williams has been borderline none existent in B1G play, with under 3.1 DKFP in any of their four conference games to this point.
On FD, after an uncharacteristic down game, I do not want to miss on FAU’s Devin “Motor” Singletary (9800 FD), who leads the nation with 14 rushing touchdowns, a year after leading CFB with 32 rushing touchdowns. Especially with TDs at a premium on FD, he is a must play for me.
An interesting GPP play for me is Wyoming RB Nico Evans (8300 DK/9400 FD) who has been practically the only sign of life for the Cowboys offense. Colorado State’s defense is awful, so I like Evans (9400 FD) as a GPP superflex play on FD, who could be a strong pivot from the more popular QBs.
Indiana RB Stevie Scott (6800 DK/8900 FD) has been a little inconsistent, but Minnesota has been pretty porous on the ground, allowing 4.90 yards per carry, so I also have some interest in him.
Fades: On this slate, one naturally would gravitate to BC RB AJ Dillon, now that he is back from his ankle injury, however, I will pass on Dillon going up against Miami’s robust defense.
Miami is allowing just 2.85 rush attempts per game and 106 rush/yards per game. Most importantly for FD, they have just allowed 7 rush TDs in 7 games, which is not much to rely on
Utah’s defense is even tougher, so I will also be fading UCLA’s Joshua Kelly (9900 FD).
WR
CSU WR Preston Williams (7600 DK/ 10200 FD) is is one of the top fantasy WRs in college football, ranking, second in the country with a staggering 111 targets. Even last week in a low ITT (19.25), he still caught 9 of 16 targets for 154 yards. And of course, the stagnant offense prompted the QB change to Hill this week. If you can fit him in, great.
Minnesota WR Tyler Johnson (8500 DK/ 9700 FD) might have a better matchup than Williams as Indiana has allowed 100+ to some of the best receivers in the Big Ten like Ohio State’s Parris Campbell and Iowa TE Noah Fant. Despite Minnesota’s struggles as a team, Johnson belongs in the Big Ten’s elite group of wideouts.
Personal favorite Utah WR Britain Covey (6400 DK/8300 FD) has a great combination of floor and upside and he too is in the middle of his best stretch of the season. Outstanding place to start your cash builds, if you are not spending up on one of the top tier WRs.
I’m not in love with the Miami/BC game, but I will have a few shares of Mami WR/TE Brevin Jordan (5100 DK/7400 FD) who the Miami blogs are expecting a lot out of.
On both sites, I like Indiana WR Luke Timian (3800 DK/5900 FD) as a value play, who is trending upwards and now he is starting alongside Nick Westbrook (5000 DK/6200 FD) and Ty Fryfogle. Westbrook is a solid value, and I like him to return to form after facing two much stronger teams in Iowa and Penn State, and having the benefit of Ramsey in for the entire game.
nother okay punt is Utah WR Demari Simpkins (4100 DK) who I like as a GPP pivot to Timian.
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