This week we get another fun little Thursday night slate with some interesting games. In a Sun Belt matchup, we get Georgia S traveling to Arkansas state and in a Pac 12 matchup, we get Stanford traveling to Arizona state. We have gotten the odds for these games from our friends over at Beat the Bookies, be sure to check them out for a DFS spin on sports betting!
Before we start…
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Georgia State @ Arkansas State (-14.5) Total 57
Georgia State (ITT 21.25)
Georgia State is led by dual-threat quarterback Dan Ellington, who is the team’s leading rusher. Ellington throws the ball about 25 times a game and runs about 15 times a game, making him a very attractive DFS option. Arkansas State has one of the best pass defenses in the country, but also one of the worst rush defenses, giving up over 250 yards a game on the ground. Aside from Ellington, Tra Barnett is a GPP viable running back given his boom tendencies. He has had as many as 14 carries in a game, but also as few as 4. At his price though against a bad rush defense, he could win someone a GPP. Penny Hart is far and away THE receiver for this Georgia State team. With 50 targets, he has a 46% target share for the team. That being said, I look for Arkansas State to try to shut him down so he could have a rough day.
Arkansas State (ITT 35.75)
Arkansas State is also led by a dual-threat quarterback, Justice Hansen. Hansen throws about 30 times a game and rushes about 11, which could lead to great results against the 117th ranked defense according to the S&P+ rankings. Georgia State is giving up on average 30.8 FD points a game, and I look for Hansen to be solid here as well. Arkansas State has a stable of running backs that split 20-30 carries a game. The last 3 games the leading back has been Marcel Murray who is averaging 10 carries a game. Warren Wand and Armond Weh-Weh are both viable punts if you are going to MME, but if you are running just one LU they are not viable to me. The top targeted pass catchers for Hansen are Kirk Merritt and Justin McInnis. Merritt has been targeted more but both have 30 catches on the year and are great options. That being said, McInnis is $2,200 cheaper than Merritt on FanDuel and might be the value of the slate. He will be in most of my lineups.
Ready for Sunday already?
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Stanford (-2.5) @ Arizona State Total 56
Stanford (ITT 29.25)
Stanford comes into this game with Arizona State losers of its past 2 games and looking to get back on track. Last week was the first time all season that the passing game really overtook the running game and quarterback KJ Costello threw for 381 yards. I think this was completely game script dependent though and do not foresee that happening again. Stanford has always been a run first team and with Bryce Love out several games this year, Trevor Speights and Cameron Scarlett have stepped into the starting role. Love is questionable but I do not think he will play unless he is completely healthy. Make sure to check our DFS Army coaching channels for news leading up to the game! JJ Arcega-Whiteside is by far the best receiver on the slate and one of the best in the country. He has almost 12 targets a game and is the only wide receiver on the team to catch a touchdown pass. The only other pass catcher with one is tight end Colby Parkinson. I love Whiteside in this game if you are going to pay down at running back or if Love is ruled out. I also love the value of Colby Parkinson who gets 6 targets a game and is sitting cheap! Kaden Smith and Trent Irwin are also in play if you are playing the showdown on DK. Each of them has 15 targets over the past 2 weeks.
Arizona State (ITT 26.75)
Arizona State possibly has some the stud of the slate at every position and could be in for a huge fantasy week. Their production is very concentrated and that is what us DFS junkies love! Quarterback Manny Wilkins has gone cold of late, with 2 out of the last 3 games throwing under 200 yards, but could bounce back here going up against a Stanford team that has been struggling against the pass. One of my favorite plays on this slate is RB Eno Benjamin. Benjamin has 84 rushes over the last 3 weeks and Stanford is giving up an average 27.4 Fan Duel points to opposing Running backs. I think Benjamin will feast! One of the bigger question marks of the slate is wide receiver N’Keal Harry. Harry got hurt last game against Colorado and has missed practice this week. He is one of the top receivers in the country and could easily put up a massive score. The two receivers that have been used the most outside of Harry are Kyle Williams and Frank Darby. Either of these are viable regardless in the Showdown on DK, but I would want Harry ruled out to play them on the full slate outside of an MME.
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