AFriedman15 – Aaron Friedman researches and writes college football articles for DFS Army. Aaron is a lifelong resident of the Chicago suburbs and a Northwestern alum and football season ticket holder. College football was Aaron’s first DFS sport and he was thrilled to see it return in 2018. He believes that the thrill, pageantry, and the importance of every game are unparalleled in sports. Aaron enjoys betting on the games and watching everything from #Pac12AfterDark to #MACtion, and especially enjoys the Tuesday-Friday games with so much happening on Saturdays. In real life, Aaron is an IT analyst and with his wife, is the parent to three small dogs. Find Aaron on Twitter at @AFriedmanDFS.
Slate Overview:
This Friday, we are back at it with a two-game Mountain West Conference (MWC) slate:
Colorado State at Boise State (-23.5, O/U 62), 9pm ET
Air Force (-11.5, O/U 57) at UNLV, 10pm ET
| Team | Spread | ITT | Time(ET)
and TV |
S&P Rank | Offense
S&P Rank |
Defense
S&P Rank |
| Colorado State @ | +23.5 | 19.25 | 9pm ESPN2 | 107 | 92 | 109 |
| Boise State | -23.5 | 42.75 | 36 | 40 | 40 | |
| Air Force @ | -11.5 | 33.75 | 10pm CBSSN | 100 | 117 | 54 |
| UNLV | +11.5 | 22.25 | 106 | 73 | 114 |
QB
Boise State QB Brett Rypien (10500 DK/9900 FD)–the nephew of Redskins Super Bowl QB Mark Rypien– is easily the top and most accomplished QB on the slate and his team has the highest implied team total, by nearly 10 points. To me, he is an easy play.
What to do next, is a little more challenging as quarterbacks have been priced differently across FD and DK, so there is different strategy about what to do next. In GPP, I fully endorse using a different position at QB, but for cash games, you will still most likely want two QBs given having the highest expected values.
Colorado State QB KJ Carta-Samuels (6600 DK/9300 FD) is a strong play more so on DK. The CSU offense is a little weird. The Rams 2nd in passing yardage in the MWC (2087 yards), yet 9th of 12 in scoring, just averaging 24.6 points per game. To me, he is the 2nd best QB on the slate, so I was a little surprised to see him priced down so much on DK, even with CSU lowest ITT on the two game slate.
“KJ came here, we liked him, still do, he can throw it, he’s fast. … He was always good to us, fun to recruit,” Boise State coach Bryan Harsin on KJ Carta-Samuels who was recruited by Boise and Washington.
Carta-Samuels will square off against Air Force QB Isaiah Sanders (8700 DK/ 6800 FD), who came in relief of Donald Hammond III who left last week with a high ankle sprain. Air Force has used three quarterbacks, so Sanders hasn’t had a ton of action nor been terribly impressive, but in his two games where he saw the most action he scored 13 DKFP and 16.8 DKFP. On DK, he is GPP only for me, but I do like him as a cash QB on FD. Sanders is going from facing the #7 team in Defensive S&P to the #114 Defensive S&P in UNLV and with a week of first-team practice reps, I do find him interesting.
Air Force’s QB situation is flat out weird. This excerpt is from the Colorado Springs Gazette:
In Sanders’ past nine games he has gone from third string to backup to starter to backup to starter to out with injury to backup to and now back to starter. He’s started three of those games, appeared in relief in four and didn’t appear in two of them. Then there’s the Senior Arion Worthman, who has started 17 games in his career, has ridden a similarly bouncy yo-yo. He started the opener, didn’t play in Game 2, played in relief in Game 3, started Game 4, was pulled, and hasn’t played in the past two. He was down to No. 3 on the depth chart for a while behind Sanders and sophomore Donald Hammond III, but is now back to the No. 2 spot for a team that has played at least two quarterbacks in seven of the past eight games.
I just feel weird about Sanders and on FD GPP I will probably move to Gilliam or a non-QB.
I don’t have much to say about UNLV QB Max Gilliam (5900 DK/ 8200 FD). He did put up 20 DKFP last week against a very solid Utah State team. He is GPP only, but with only 4 QBs, I will have a few shares.
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RB
With running back, I have the same priorities on both sites. On Wednesday, UNLV RB Lexington Thomas (5700 DK/8700 FD) was cleared to play for Friday’s game, and he is #2 in the MWC in rushing with 552 rushing yards and 6 TDs.
“No question, absolutely. In fact, there will be a number of guys that they have on their team that we’ll face on Friday night that will play in the NFL.” – Air Force coach Troy Calhoun on whether he considers Thomas an NFL prospect.
My favorite back is Boise State’s RB Alexander Mattison (8100 DK/9600 FD), a workhorse with 108 carries (Rypien is 2nd with 22).
The rest of the RBs do not excite me: CSU RB Izzy Matthews (6400 DK/7800 FD) feels like a tier below Thomas and Alexander. This is a great week to use a receiver in DK Flex, in my opinion.
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WR
CSU WR Preston Williams (6300 DK/10000 FD) is the best receiver in the league and he is second in the country with a staggering 93 targets. He will be in all of my cash lineups and I’ll mix and match in GPP.
There is some good value to Boise State WR Sean Modster (6900 DK/8400) on FD, who leads the Broncos in targets with 57. Richardson is second on Boise State with 39 targets.
In a slate without a ton of value, I really like Air Force WR Ronald Cleveland (4300 DK/7000 FD) who actually has 6+ carries in 5 of 6 games. Hopefully the Falcons keep using him in the run game vs. UNLV.
UNLV WR Darren Woods Jr. (4000 DK/8000 FD) is pretty affordable too and had 7 targets and 16.3 FP vs. Utah State last week and 5 targets for 12.7 FP the week before.
In GPPs I like Boise State WR John Hightower (5700 DK/9000 GPP), a dirt biking enthusiast, who has a touchdown runs of 55 and 88 yards (the latter tied a school record), and touchdown receptions of 67, 41 and 31 yards. He has eight carries for 163 yards, 21 receptions for 306 yards and six kick returns for 135 yards
“John is very, very, very fast — very fast. I think the world recognized that these last couple games. … He’s doing some crazy things with the ball,” senior receiver A.J. Richardson said.
In GPPs as a budget receiver, I also plan to have a few shares of UNLV WR Tyleek Collins (3700 DK/4000 FD), an electric true freshman who had a breakout game last week with 4 catches for 139 yards (one 79-yard play)
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