Every week of the year the PGA Tour plays on a new course. There are some examples in other DFS Sports of environment impacting performance, such as Coors Field in Baseball; Golf, however, offers an entirely unique environment each and every week. This article will break down the week’s PGA course and attempt to find what skill sets are needed for success. This article will then combine the course breakdown with the DFS Army Domination Station and give a few players to target in both Cash Game and GPP formats. For more updates throughout the week follow me on twitter @_bschnarr
Safeway Open Review
10K DraftKings/11K FanDuel
When I wrote up this range I mentioned how my favourite two plays were Ryan Moore and Emiliano Grillo. I liked Moore as a good course fit that I thought would be underowned and I liked Grillo as a pure course fit. Moore was solid throughout and finished in the top six in scoring for the week. Grillo never really got it going for and finished T41 for the week. Within this range the only player I really thought was a complete fade was Joaquin Niemann whose 33.9% average ownership across GPP’s was a little much for me.
Brendan Steele – 60.5 DK Points – T53
I wrote up Steele as interesting because his history at this event (back to back wins) contrasted his brutal recent track record. I was interested to see where Steele’s ownership would end up on the week – the 15.62% average was slightly lower than the 20% I had projected. Ultimately, for me the recent performance outweighed recent success at this event and I was luckily able to stay off of Steele for the week.
Low 8K on DraftKings (Varner, Uihlein, Henley, Knox)
If you, like me, went to this range than you probably did not have that great of a week. I loved Russell Knox as I thought he would be the lowest owned (he was) while being a terrific course fit. Unfortunately, Knox did not work out for me, neither did Henley, Varner or Uihlein.
Chez Reavie – 73 DK Points – T33
Reavie was my cash game lock for me and the first person I filled in when starting cash game teams. In Gpp’s, I decided to go underweight on Reavie with 10% ownership (I figured Reavie would be around 30%, he ended up being 25.88%) and pivoted largely to Frittelli and Streelman, two guys who both also lined up well for the course.
Chesson Hadley – 35 DK Points – MC
Hadley was another guy I wrote up as chalk, but unlike Reavie I was completely comfortable to fully fade Chesson given his recent performance.
Bill Haas – 81.5 DK Points – T10
Haas was the final player I wrote up for the week. I liked Haas as a player that fits the course and thought he was a great pivot off of Hadley in the low 7k range. Haas played great throughout the week and saw himself with a chance going into the final round on Sunday, but ultimately could not get it going and finished the round +1.
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CIMB Classic
The PGA tour heads across the sea this week to Malaysia this week to play the TPC Kuala Lumpur. For everyone playing – Line-ups lock at 8pm Wednesday night!. The event once again has one of the top fields we will see throughout the swing season with many top names playing including; Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele and Paul Casey. Another important note this week, this is a no-cut event – which should change your roster construction for the week.
TPC Kuala Lumpur plays as one of the easiest event of the year with the winner routinely going more than -20 over the four days. There have been a few course changes this year as the greens have been changed to TifEagle Bermuda and the Fairways have been changed to Celebration Bermuda. While this will make the greens play a little faster I still expect this to be an absolute birdie fest from beginning to end. At 7,005 yards this course is extremely short by PGA standards for a par 72. Because of the length this course plays as a second-shot course, players will be able to place their first shot to give themselves the approaches they want. Just like last week I will be relying on our DFS Army Research Station to break down how has been gaining strokes recently approaching the green. Specifically, I will be looking for players who have been gaining strokes with Wedges, as players will have plenty of chances with a wedge in their hands this week. Another important key this week, with four reachable par fives there is great opportunity for eagles this week. Finding players who can get you the +8 bonus will be big for the week. I will be using Birdie or Better % to find the players who can put up as many fantasy points as possible.
Interesting Plays
Justin Thomas – DK: $11700 FD: $13000
JT has been absolutely dominant at this event with two wins (2016, 2015) and a T11 finish last season at this event. JT also looked great to finish of the year and was one of the few bright spots for team America at the Ryder Cup. We all know the key stats line up and you can never go wrong with a birdie maker at a no cut event. The obvious negatives for JT these weeks are the ownership that he will carry and the high salary. I think regardless of what eventual ownership ends up being I will be overweight this week.
Ryan Moore – DK: $10900 FD: $11600
Another player I really like this week is Ryan Moore (for first time readers, please know I do not always just pick the top 2 salaries). Moore looked great at Safeway and I think is priced again where his ownership will stay down at a course that he is set up for success at.
Brandt Snedeker – DK: $9100 FD: $10700
Snedeker is interesting to me because of the price reduction on DraftKings despite the great performance at Safeway. I think the combination of the price reduction along with the T2 finish will have us seeing Sendeker’s ownership skyrocket. I will be interested to see what @dfsupnorth has to say on the matter in his article and in slack, but I see Snedeker carries a bit of ownership along with a few others in his low 9k range.
Kevin Tway – DK: $8200 FD: $10000
Kevin Tway started off his season hot with his first PGA Tour win of his career. I think in this range we could see Tway relatively lower owned with the likes of Pat Perez, Cam Smith and Charles Howell eating into his expected ownership. I like Tway in all formats this week.
Thomas Pieters – DK: $7500 FD: $9700
Pieters is the obvious misprice of the week on DraftKings and in a no cut event makes for an excellent play in cash games. Because of the price he will surely be chalky which makes him interesting in GPP’s. I personally really like Pieters this week, but I think my play will be dictated by what I think his ownership will end up being.
As always, these are initial thoughts and not necessarily the plays I will be making. As the week goes on I will update my thoughts in our member SlackChat as well as discussing multiple other players and my thoughts for both Cash and GPP’s.
Other DFS Army PGA Golf Tools and Articles
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