Prime Time SNF and MNF Slate
The prime-time slate is a mixture of playing guys in good spots and leveraging the ownership of the field. The larger the GPP that you enter the more you have to focus on ownership and begin to use game theory when crafting your lineups. If it’s a smaller field GPP, say 2,000 entries or less, you can focus mostly on the best player available and try to put together the most optimal lineup that you can. Keep this in mind when using this article and building lineups based on the size of the tournament you are entering.
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QUARTERBACK
Pat Mahomes is clearly an exceptional play on all formats. This game has a massive 58 point total and the Chiefs have a 27 point implied total. Going back to his 2017 week 17 start, a Mahomes led Chiefs offense has scored 27, 38, 42, 38, 27, and 30 points. I firmly believe the Patriots won’t be able to stop Mahomes or even slow him down. He’s likely the top raw point scorer on the entire slate and I’ll have plenty of shares of him.
Tom Brady is yet another superb option and I think he might be slightly higher owned due to being a home team and well, just being Tom Brady. The Patriots have a 31 point implied total and I think this game is going to be a track meet. The route of using one of these two QBs leaves very little salary left over if you start to use their pass catchers and primary offensive weapons.
Enter, C.J. Beathard. He is actually my number one option at quarterback for the PT slate. I think of his as the X-Factor in this slate. He’ll be low-owned and he’s super cheap. The Packers defense is good at home and they are favored by 8.5 points. Yikes, Beathard is in a terrible spot.
I don’t care. He’s so cheap, specifically on FanDuel, at just $6,300 and he is throwing the ball a ton and has red zone rushing ability. He actually is 4-of-6 for 3 TDs passing in the red zone in his two starts and also has a rushing touchdown. Wild. I think the pressure will get to him and he’ll likely turn the ball over 2 or 3x but he has shown willingness to throw the ball down the field and tuck and run.
In large field GPPs – Beathard
In small field GPPs- Mahomes first then Brady for my ranking.
RUNNING BACK
James White is my top running back on the slate as the Chiefs are giving up nearly 100 yards receiving per game to opposing running backs! Crazy stat. White is going to feast and he’s been priced up across the industry due to this knowledge and his role with the team this season.
Sony Michel is questionable and he’s my favorite large field GPP running back because of it. I think people will be nervous to use him and I believe that if he suits up we’ll have an RB on a home team that is favored to win with a 31 point team total at half the ownership he would be at if he weren’t a GTD.
Kareem Hunt is a great leverage play off the Mahomes passing game. I don’t think I want Hunt if using Mahomes. You have to game theorize if using Mahomes that he goes nuts and throws/scores 4/5 touchdowns forcing the Patriots to throw the ball to keep pace – making James White the RB play to stack with Mahomes.
Alfred Morris is a salary saving 15-20 touch option who should get all red zone work if they get inside the 10-yard line. He’s my second favorite RB after James White because we need some salary relief for this game.
If Matt Breida is in I won’t use him – if he’s out I like Raheem Mostert who could fill the 2-minute running back role or pass-catching option for the 49ers and he’s incredibly cheap. He’s flashed in camp and pre-season before and could be that perfect large field GPP option to separate yourself from the crowd.
WIDE RECEIVER
Sammy Watkins is way too cheap for this slate and he’s currently my plug and play option. He’ll be the lower owned out of Edelman/Adams/Hill so you already get him at a discount. He has 100 yards and 1 TD potential in this matchup and I like him no matter who you have at QB.
Tyreek Hill is the splash play for the night. He can win you the slate in just a few touches and he doesn’t need to be stacked with Mahomes and can even be used in your Beathard or Adams lineups.
Chris Conley is way too cheap and although he’s likely going to return little to no value, he’s a min-price option who has received 11 targets in the last two weeks and if Mahomes throws the ball 50x Conley has a chance to haul in 6/7 targets at min-price. He hasn’t been used in the deep threat role yet but he was one of those options last season.
Davante Adams is a plug and play WR if Cobb and/or Geronimo Allison are out. If they are both in I might completely fade Adams (unless using Rodgers) and take that extra salary and make sure I pay all the way up at tight end. If you are waiting on injury news on the Packers you won’t get it in time so you’ll want to make sure to plant your flag on whether you’d prefer Adams + punting at TE or if you want to pay down at WR and go get Kelce or Gronk. Feel free to punt WR this week and make sure to get James White and Kareem Hunt or Sony Michel (yes, Michel and White in the same lineup is a nice unique approach, too).
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski is my preferred large field GPP option due to his ownership likely being half of what Travis Kelce will have. Gronk has 6-100-2 potential and I think this is the week we see him explode. The Chiefs will be missing their top pass-rusher and the guy who should cover Gronk if he were healthy (Eric Berry).
Travis Kelce is my preferred small field GPP option and he actually is my second favorite KC player to use on this entire slate. I also see credence to fading Tyreke Hill and Davante Adams and throwing a lineup together where you punt at WR and then use Kelce and Gronk together at TE and Flex.
Defense
Green Bay Packers are literally the only option on the slate worth using. Mahomes/Brady/Rodgers just don’t make mistakes that lead to defensive touchdowns. The Packers defense can rush the passer and Beathard turns the ball over – they’re just going to be a lock and load if MME and plug and play for anybody hand building.
Contrarian Large Field GPP Plan
Beathard or Aaron Rodgers would be the quarterback to use. When doing this you’ll want to use Kareem Hunt and Sony Michel in the hopes that they both soak up 2/3 rushing touchdowns and take the air out of the football and lower the scoring ceiling of Mahomes and Brady. You would want to likely use the defense of the Packers no matter what.
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Fortune favors the bold, go make your own luck!
-Donuts
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