Welcome to NFL DFS #TheWishbone! Some of you might not even know what a wishbone is, and I’m about to date myself here. The Wishbone, before passing became so prolific, was perhaps the most powerful running formation in all of football. I’m talking before Tecmo Bowl and face masks. The beauty of the wishbone formation, and this article series, is you knew what you were getting. It was going to be announced as fundamentally sound and maybe a bit chalky. But, you were still going to have to stop it………..and that was the problem, most couldn’t. I write the same way. Here it is big boy, come and get it!
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Remember, this article is designed to get you pointed in the right direction. It’s not a thorough slate write-up and it’s not a player picks piece. I would rather get you started, then have you interact with us in our VIP slack forums as we banter picks and strategies back and forth. Learning NFL the right way is the fastest way to grow your skill level. Certainly, follow me for “process” or validation. But, we are going to disagree….and that’s perfectly fine. You only need to know WHY you disagree with me, and you need to be able to trust your own gut and think for yourself. That is the only way you will truly be a great DFS NFL player.
Week 7 NFL Vegas Odds Table
We can talk about a lot of things, but when it comes to the NFL, I like keeping things simple at first. Implied columns are the individual team’s implied total. The favorite is obviously the favored team in Vegas. The underdog is obviously the underdog. And, the spread is the point differential Vegas feels the final score will display. We use all of these parameters to predict game scripts and prioritize the games we plan to attack for the upcoming week.
NFL DFS Week 7 “Top 3s”
I’m not going to break down every game and every playable player for you. I will, however, give you MY favorites. My favorite games, players at each position, and gpp plays. I’m going to keep it rather short, though. I’m curating my own content and research, and I expect you to do the same. And, I’m absolutely honored, you consider me one of your curated sources and trusted weekly opinions. I love listening to our podcast page, both free and VIP-only. I also use our Research Station very heavily all year long (tutorial here).
Top 3 NFL Games to Target
CIN @ KCC – I think this one is universal by now. Who are the Chiefs playing? How much is too much for my cash game lineup? Huge total, two stellar offenses on the year, one side that sort of cares about defense, and one side that openly doesn’t give two shits. I’m all over this one, and the analysis is pretty minimal.
LAR @ SF49ers – I love this game for one reason…….it’s not on the main slate. I literally lol every week at the morons that overload the Thursday Night games and completely ignore the Sunday and Monday Night games. The general public is stupid (not you, of course. You are reading my condescension.) They are getting smarter, but they still do it. They play the TNF game too heavily even in bad matchups. News flash…..the TNF game this week sucks harder than an out of the box Hoover. Fade it, load up late, and thank me later. Even with that shootout between MIN and LA a couple weeks ago, I won a 100man league outright with only Thielen on my roster. Faded the rest of that bonanza game….still won. You don’t need the TNF game, and it can actually do much more harm than good. That’s just a weekly mantra.
NYG @ ATL – Yep…you guessed it. I’m doubling down. I won’t likely even play the Main Slate this week. It looks less fun than watching my nieces and nephews play Barbies and board games. Give me a couple beers, some good company around the tv, and a high scoring game. That’s where you’ll find me…..oh, and at the top of the leaderboards. This week, though, you won’t see me coming. I’ll be sitting on about 45 points rolling into the Sunday Night games where I’ll drop back to back hammers on your ass as you panic when you finally see me in your rear view mirror and come to the conclusion there isn’t a damned thing you can do about it because you have 0 quarters remaining!
Top 3 Quarterbacks
Allow me to first show you how this works. I’m narrowing down to my favorite 3 at each spot. My personal list might be a good bit bigger. QBs, for example, had me narrowing down quickly from 32 to 9 in week 5. But, from there we started splitting hairs. They were: Cam, Big Ben, Watson, Brady, Rivers, Brees, Mahomes, Wentz, and Dalton. These are QBs I believed could “win the week” at their positions (along with a couple roadies). But, at that point, with a gun to my head, I had to look at the first three I would have been excited to reach for in my core lineups. However, I’d still take tourney shots with all of them at varying exposures.
Patrick Mahomes – These are my top 3, not necessarily the ones I’ll be forced to roster everywhere. Mahomes will likely only get in gpps for me with where you will undoubtedly pick up on me heading this week as you keep reading. But, you can’t argue his spot this week. At home, favored, implied to score a ton. We also focus on efficiency over volume at the QB position in DFS, and did you know………………Mahomes is the #1 most efficient QB in the league this year according to ESPN’s Total QBR? Well, he is. That checks all the boxes………except bargain. He ain’t no bargain.
Matt Ryan – Play Matt Ryan at home. Oh, and play him at home when he’s favored, his RB committee disappears, his TE emerges as finally getting targets to balance that offense more, his 3 receivers are running sharp routes at different levels of the field, and Vegas thinks he will score 30 freakin’ points. If that’s not enough for you, let’s discount off Mahomes about $400 and add in he’s also top 10 in efficiency.
Joe Flacco – You will see why we need cheap in a minute, but Flacco fits that bill on Fanduel about as well as anyone. We don’t want to get too cheap on FD, but we are going to need to get as low as a limbo chick in 1983. He’s fairly efficient, but he has weapons he is using (aside from his 18 TEs), and he draws the Saints secondary outdoors in his home stadium. The bump in production might be the upside we need to love his floor and a few big running backs.
Too many wins to count! Three over $20,000 alone. From small slates to large, showdowns to primetimes, cash to gpps, DFS Army continues to dominate the leaderboards. You can find the biggest on our Wall of Wins, and specifically read DBarlow’s $250k story —> HERE!
Top 3 Running Backs
Todd Gurley – Well, there he is again. $10,200 on Fanduel and still likely underpriced for the points you buy. A legit floor of about 24 points and a ceiling approaching 40. These are the most secure points on the slate week in and week out right now. Do you follow a player’s splits? Home vs road? How about in vs out of the division? Well, Gurley plays better on the road, and he plays even better on the road in division games. Weird splits, I know, but add that to his already crazy high floor and the security is more than there when most people are likely looking for any reason to fade him.
Melvin Gordon – Just another secure workload/floor maniac right now. Touches and targets are both there. We can’t question the red zone usage. And, the boxes of “home, favored, implied to score a lot, 18+ touches, passing work, and red zone work” are all checked. If you notice TEN carries a top 5 designation vs the run, I’m with you. It’s a little unnerving for a $9000 back. However, BUF is currently ranked 3rd vs the run, and Gordon smashed them in their house for 27 points. And, he did that on 9 touches and 7 receptions. He also took out other former top 10 vs the run defenses in the Rams and 49ers to the tune of 15 and 27 points, respectively. He’s pretty matchup proof, y’all.
Saquon Barkley – You have to play the Thu-Mo slates to get these guys this week because the Main Slate sucks hard. I won’t be on it for any portion of it. I don’t play just to play, and I don’t advise my VIPs to be complete degenerates, either. You play when you have an edge…..otherwise you are just gambling (not using your skill). Barkley draws the Falcons. I really shouldn’t have to say more. The Falcons just made Peyton Barber famous, and they recently made James Conner relevant again. It doesn’t matter the skill level of the opposing running backs they face. If they can catch passes, they can have the game of their lives against ATL. Saquon is set up like a golf ball on a Bubba Watson tee here, and I’m trying all I can to get all three of these running backs in my lineup this week. My floor will be so high, it will be the penthouse for most of you to topple. If I come off one at all, it will likely be Gurley for Mixon, and we’ll see where that puts me for receivers. If the receivers still suck, I’ll go right back to Gurley and punt like Reggie Roby on 4th and 2.
Top 3 Wide Receivers
Tyreke Hill – I won’t likely be spending up at WR anywhere, but you can’t deny the spot Hill finds this week. He’s one of the few WRs also priced up on Draftkings…..meaning he’s a decent value on Fanduel. No one can argue his big play upside. But, Tyreke also has 7 red zone targets on the year…..3 inside the 10. CIN allows the 9th most points to WRs and travels into Arrowhead to face an angry mob excited to own the highest flying offense in all the land right now. I can’t wait to see our WR/CB matchups page when it comes out in a couple days for our VIPs. Here is a quick view at last week’s sheet sorted by teams starting with the letter N to cut down the size for easy viewing.
Willie Snead – We haven’t spoken the name of Snead in a long time. However, have you peeked at his targets lately? $5400 on Fanduel and targets on the year of: 6, 8, 5, 7, 7, 10. If he can only find the endzone, he smashes value. I’m looking to pair him with Flacco if I can’t get up to John Brown. I’m looking for cheap targets, and this one definitely fits the bill.
Mohammed Sanu – If he’s back, I’m jumping on him. His price didn’t move due to injury, but he has also tallied between 10 and 15 points per week for the last four. When wanting those heavy running backs above, I’m going to need value in a couple of spots. I’m also going to want exposure to this game where I can get it. There isn’t a lot to write up on players like this. There also isn’t a lot to like down in these price levels. We are hunting targets, red zone work, and matchup and hoping for the best. Someone down here will have a solid game. And, they all have a decent floor for the price.
Top 3 Tight Ends
Austin Hooper – Home, favored, implied to score 24+ rules the day for TEs and situational matchups. Add in red zone work, overall targets, and opponent DVOA and you will quickly land right back on Hooper for the price this week. ATL appears to be using him now. His past two weeks have seen 10 and 12 targets. However, I’m not a DFS noob. I’ve fallen for this trap before. We always need to remember TE is more volatile than all positions except maybe defense.
CJ Uzomah – It’s hard not to want Uzomah to do better than a ceiling of 9 points. And, if it’s going to happen, it should be this week. KC gives up 2nd most points to TEs and at the pace of 14 points per game. The matchup is there. With Eifert and Kroft hurt, the Bengals have no other competition at the position. I don’t usually do the road, underdog thing….but I might make an exception this time.
David Njoku – I might also go back to the well here. This was my pivot off Brate once OJ Howard was announced to play last week. I kept a Brate for good measure, but was more than happy to get over to Njoku and his dramatically increased target load the past few weeks. Rookie QBs tend to lean on RBs, slot receivers, and TEs to check things down when under pressure. There is only one team giving more points to TEs than the Chiefs……the Bucs. It does look like we are breaking our rule of sticking with home, favored TEs. But, we need this savings bad.
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Top 3 Defenses
Indianapolis Colts – Who’s playing Buffalo this week? Umm…..chalk it up. The industry got cute and went with CHI last week and paid the price. They should come right back to the mother ship this week. It’s a strong play, but my next one is likely where I land due to needing savings everywhere.
Buffalo Bills – The sneakier side of this game might be the Bills defense. Multiple sacks each week, and quietly grabbing multiple turnovers, too. The floor is there if they don’t allow a bazillion points. Let’s not overthink this for $3400 and just hope for a high passing volume day out of Andrew Luck.
Miami Dolphins – This one is a desperate grab for another cheap defense. I will say I see scenarios where Matthew Stafford gets turnover prone in an environment that appeared to melt the Chicago Bears last week. But, I don’t think I’ll be using this play outside of large field GPPs.
Remember, my Top 3 GPP picks are yet to come….keep reading!
KBiggz joined our VIP program the morning he made this lineup. He simply latched onto Geek’s Picks and watched the discussions in our coaching channels. From there, he was able to assemble this miraculous lineup that was less than a point away from dragging the full million. We have winners using our content, tools and coaching every week to become better players.
Top 3 GPP Plays
Patrick Mahomes/Tyreke Hill – I said it last week….how’d it work for you? I’m going right back to the well. We have an even better matchup on paper, and this week we get the benefit of flipping everyone’s construction on it’s head in a leverage play if they roster Gurley and another bigger running back. When you pay up as they pay down, you also get to pay up where they have to pay down. If you hit, you find yourself all alone pretty quickly.
Travis Kelce – Exact same strategy as the Mahomes/Hill play. You can even stack him with Mahomes. Travis Kelce needs no introduction as a premier TE on a weekly basis and a slate breaker. But, no one will be able to pay up if they don’t start with him first. Stay the course and be unique. If he drags down a couple touchdowns, you get past a lot of people in tourney land. I might have one of these lineups, but you won’t see it in a 5050 under my name.
David Johnson – I’ve been rough on DJ this year. ARI has deserved it, too. They have forgotten how to use him and it’s going to cost their coach his job soon. But, until that sweet release of walking papers happens, we need to look for opportunities for him to thrive to even consider using him. This week, we have one. Short week, rookie QB, no weapons in the passing game, at home, and facing a team just routinely getting gashed by RBs over the past few weeks. Some will offer up the narrative of John Elway calling his team soft, but that story is played. Elway’s message is more likely to fall on deaf ears. Teams have been successful up the middle on DEN and that’s about the only place ARI wants to run. The matchup is finally here. This is a “bet on upside” only play……and all we care about when it comes to gpps.
NFL DFS Breakdown Video – A Hyper-Simple Method to Narrow Your Player Pool
But, We’re Not Done!
I am a better cash player than GPP player; therefore, you can easily use my chalk plays to find similar, but lower owned, plays for yourself. And, you can also use me to help you learn the fundamentals if you are just starting out. The cash players are often highly owned. They are highly owned for a reason…they are in the best spots, the obvious spots. When you graduate from my school of the obvious, you are ready to ask The Geek, Donuts, Keg, Puggle, DFSUpNorth, BigMarley, and our other staff members for their opinions on more sophisticated endeavors. But, you can only do so as a VIP. Our individual and group coaching channels are where the magic happens, and it’s where our 20+ coaches live!!
Bookmark this article because I will be updating the section below with a lot of pertinent articles as they drop throughout the week. My intention is for you to rely on this single piece for most of the important reading you do any given week. Don’t forget to use code CHOP for your discount when signing up at DFS Army.com to unlock your 10% discount. And, don’t forget to give me a follow out on Twitter via the link back at the top. I am usually trying to foster discussion out there, too.
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