NFL DFS Chalk Donkey – Week 7 Main Slate

Welcome to the week 7, the first week with 4 teams on bye and an early London game! That means we get a smaller 10 game main slate and one that will likely have lots of chalk that we can pivot off! 

My name is Josh Thomas, and I write the Chalk Donkey article for the main slate for NFL VIPs as well as focusing on the showdown/single game slates on both sites. In this article I’ll breakdown the games on the slate, what a Chalk Donkey is, identify who those players are at QB, RB, WR, TE, and DEF using our ownership projections and offer some pivots who are poised for big games at low ownership. I’ll justify those pivots using our one of a kind research station and in the process, hopefully teach you a bit about how to use that research station to identify solid pivots off the chalk.

Check out my NFL Showdown Article where I breakdown all the GPP winning lineups her

-–> Showdown Smackdown<–

As a reminder, this article identifies who the chalk is each week and provides options on how to either differentiate your lineup with it or pivot. Chalk isn’t always bad and I play chalk every week. There are times we have a chalk player and while I provide an option to pivot here, if Geek, CashKeg, or Marley say “All In” on the chalk, guess what? We go “ALL IN” on the chalk

Week Six Recap:

Welp, the chalk hit last week at least in terms of the Falcons/Buccaneers game. Jameis Winston was the highest scoring QB on the slate and Matt Ryan was the fourth highest. The surprise of the day was Brock Osweiler coming in for the injured Ryan Tannehill and being the QB on the Milly Maker winning lineup. Russell Wilson had an OK day and so did Andy Dalton but if you didn’t have Ryan, Winston, Mitchell Trubisky, Andrew Luck,  or *gulp* Brock Osweiler you weren’t likely to make any money in GPP’s.

The big question at running back was “To Gurley, or not to Gurley” and if you read last week’s article we were all in on Gurley in GPP on Draftkings, and all in on Gurley in every format on Fanduel. He paid that 10K salary off with a 2 touchdown performance and outscored the other stud RB (Melvin Gordon) by 1.5 points. You actually didn’t need Gurley in cash if you dropped down to Gordon on Draftkings but on Fanduel you basically had to have both since it was easy to fit them with a QB like Jameis Winston . 

At Wide Receiver, Chalk Julio had a huge day with 143 yards receiving, but surprise surprise, didn’t catch a TD again! You really didn’t need to play him this week at his price to cash in GPP or double ups with the value below him like Tyler Boyd, Taylor Gabriel, Chester Rogers and JuJu Smith-Schuster. 

The ‘Dad Runner Austin Hooper hit value again and continued to defy odds by being the top scorer on the slate again. Cam Brate chalk got paid off early with a TD but that was pretty much all he did during that game and guys like Nick O’Leary and Chris Herndon outscored him. Our pivot C.J. Uzomah did too providing an almost 4x value.

Defensively chalk donkey favorite Baltimore Ravens were the highest scoring defense of the week, but the Chicago Bears found themselves in a battle with the upstart Dolphins and ended up losing while only scoring 5 points.

The one thing you should be doing every week  is reading my boy @burns273dfs  weekly milly maker breakdown,  Shark Autopsy Report  It’s an absolute must read if you are playing large field GPP’s or want to learn more about the game theory that goes into not only the winning lineup, but the top ten as well.

Alright, enough about the week that was and let’s get to the week that is! We have a juicy slate and one that I’m really excited about!

One way that I breakdown rosters is through our Research Station. We will have a stand alone research station for the Thursday games this year, which I’m pumped about, check it out here! –> NFL Main Slate Research Station

Week Seven Preview:

We get a 10 game main slate due to four teams being on bye and an early game in London. There are three games with a game total of over 50 that we can attack and plenty of fantasy goodness elsewhere!

Todd Gurley and the Rams are the biggest favorite on the slate as ten point favorites in what is also the highest game total. The 49ers have been mediocre against the run and the Rams should roll here and it is likely going to be on the back of Todd Gurley. The other side of this game is interesting as well with QB C.J. Beathard who has looked fairly competent in his few games a starter for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo and the Rams defense is still beat up and not as good as they have been portrayed to be.

Baltimore and New Orleans has a surprisingly high total and this going to be a game of two juggernauts colliding, the explosive Saints offense and the dominant Baltimore defense. Something will have to give here, and I would think that it’s the Ravens defense against one of the greatest QB’s of our generation in Drew Brees. What this means it that they will likely be in catch up mode and makes Joe Flacco a really interesting option this week.

I understand the Patriots are on the road against a great defense but how is this only a 2.5 point spread, I think the Pats role here, and I reaaaallly like the targets that Josh Gordon has been getting in this offense and if Khalil Mack who is questionable is out with an ankle injury, I’m going to be all in on the Pats offense.

Other interesting games are the Bucs and Browns and Baker Mayfield getting a matchup against the worst defense in the NFL. The best slot receiver in the NFL (Adam Thielen) gets to go against the worst defense at covering slot wr’s this week and is likely a cash game lock for me, regardless of price.

A lot of the typical chalk and great fantasy options are either on the primetime slate, in London, or on bye, so we need to dig deep this week and play some guys who make us uncomfortable.

Overall theres a great mix of games and value to be had on this slate, lets get into who the chalk donkeys are this week and where we can pivot or leverage it!

What is a Chalk Donkey?

First let’s breakdown what I consider to be ‘chalk’. In golf, I breakdown the chalk by price range, but for NFL I think its important to break it down by position. Note these percentages are for the main slate. On a smaller slate the chalk ranges become a little bit higher, I have no problem playing a QB at 30% ownership on a 3 game slate, but on a 12 gamer I’d rather pivot.

Quarterback: >20% Any time we have a Quarterback staring down 20% ownership or 1/5 of the field, its worth pivoting off of them. Quarterback scoring is often very flat and there isn’t a huge difference in point production most weeks, win or lose. Anytime there’s a chalk QB I almost always pivot.

Running Back: >20% Similar to QB, Any time a RB creeps up towards this 20% range we want to consider a pivot. I’m less likely to fade RB’s in smash spots at high ownership than I am QB’s just because of the ability of RBs to have massive games and outscore their closest competitor by 10-15 points. (See Todd Gurley, 2017)

Wide Receiver: 15%-20% With 3 spots for Wide Receiver on all three sites, you have the opportunity for ownership to spread out a little more on WR’s than the rest of the position groups. That being said, ownership almost always pools on 4-5 WR’s with most above 20%. There are very few WR’s that are match up safe and many tend to be game flow dependent. Many times we see WR’s in smash spots drop single digit points at high ownership because of the variance of a football game.

Tight End: >10% With only one spot on your roster for a TE unless you roster two with a flex, we don’t usually see players with massive ownership here. Anything over 10% would be considered chalky for me, but for the most part I’m not really fading TE ownership most weeks unless Gronk looks like a 30% owned play.

Defense: >15% Similar to TE, I’m not often fading a defense as we usually don’t have a chalk donkey here and there isn’t always a huge spread in the top 10 defenses of the week in terms of point production.

One thing to remember as you construct lineups, players are ‘Chalk Donkeys’ for a reason, they are perceived to be good plays. Don’t fade the ‘Chalk Donkeys’ just because they are going to be highly owned. Very rarely does no chalk hit, and often times you find some of these ‘Chalk Donkeys’ in GPP winning lineups. In fact, 83% of Milly Maker winners in NFL rostered a player who was 20% owned or higher and 45% rostered a player that was 30% owned or higher! 

Now let’s get to the Chalk Donkey’s of the week. In the next section of this article I will highlight one or two players at each position that are projected to be highly owned and give either a reason to fade or play them. I’ll also provide a pivot or two who are projected to come in with single digit ownership. Note projected ownerships are for Draftkings you can find the other sites on our Domination Station.  

Here are this week’s top 5 projected owned players for Draftkings. We have ownership projections updating all weekend for all sites in our Domination Station! Check it out here!
——–>DFS Army Domination Station<——–

Quarterback:

Here are the top 5 QB’s in projected ownership for DK and their projected points

There is no real ‘chalk’ options on this slate with only Jared Goff being barely above 10% owned. With the small slate and the lack of really explosive options the ownership is extremely spread out. Instead of providing a chalk pivot here, I’m going to share two options that I think are in great spots and under priced.

C.J. Beathard: DK $4800/FD $6400/FD2 $10,500

Projected Ownership: 4.76%

I don’t get to much main slate research until at least Friday. Typically my focus is on the Monday-Thursday slate, the two showdowns, and PGA during the fall swing here. When I fired up the ol’ Macbook and saw CashKeg’s Week 7 Cash Plays was out I was pumped to give it a read, especially with the new format that goes through position to position. My jaw about hit the floor when I saw that he was priced under 5K on DK.

In Beathard’s three starts, he’s averaged about 20 DK points and while he has turned the ball over quite a few times, (just under twice per game) at 4800 he doesn’t need to do much to hit value.

The matchup with the Rams isn’t excellent, but with the projections here he should be able to garner at least 16-18 DK points which would be around 4x value. That is a fantastic floor. He also has some upside, especially running the ball. He ran one in and threw for two against Arizona earlier this year and ended up as the best value on the slate that day with 27 DK points.

In a game against the Rams where the 49ers are massive dogs, Beathard is going to be slinging the ball early and often trying to keep up.

For comparison, Jared Goff who is projected to be the highest owned QB on the slate has to get over 26 points to get 4x value, something that he’s only done twice this year.

I just don’t think you can pass up on the value with Beathard here, the price is fantastic, the floor is great, the ceiling is there and you can do so much with your lineup playing him. He’s essentially a cash lock for me this week. I don’t think you need to pair him with anyone, though George Kittle and Marquise Goodwin are both good options.

Joe Flacco: DK $5400/FD $7500/FD2 10,600  

Projected Ownership: 6.2%

Alright, I’m going to give you a scenario…

Theres a QB who is averaging 18.5 DK points a game, has a 9/4 TD/Int ratio, averages 44 pass attempts a game, and is going against the worst pass defense in the league.

He’s also in a game with the second highest total on the slate.

And he’s the 12th highest priced QB on Draftkings

You’d be all over him right?

Ladies and gentlemen, Joe Flacco is your QB this week!

Flacco has an unreal match up this week and really should be the chalk of the slate, yet here is sitting at 6% ownership. The best way to attack the Saints is through the air, and lucky for Flacco thats the Ravens strength. They have to good backs, but neither is really able to take over a game and Flacco is already throwing the ball 44 times a game. It’s likely that he breaks 50 this game, and going against the high powered Saints offense, he will have to take some shots deep to keep up.

Marshon Lattimore has been better and will likely see Michael Crabtree this game and but could get some reps against John Brown. Either are good stacking options, and I might even consider rostering Willie Snead in GPP as well.

I think Flacco is viable in Cash/GPP/Hybrid everything this week and will be one of my higher owned QB’s.

Other low owned QB options I like: Matthew Stafford, Deshaun Watson, Kirk Cousins 

Running Back:

Here are the top 5 RB’s in projected ownership for DK and their projected points

You should play Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliot in every single lineup that you possibly can. Really. I’m not kidding .Do it. At the VERY LEAST you need one of them in a lineup.

 

Peyton Barber: DK $3800/FD $6100/FD2 $8200

Projected Ownership 14.32%

Huh?! Peyton Barber is going to be highly owned? What world are we living in? I mean. I know Barber went off last week against the AWFUL Falcons defense but prior to his 20 point outburst he has averaged 3 POINTS A GAME! WHY ARE PEOPLE PLAYING HIM?! 

I get the price here, $3800 is super cheap for a starting RB and the Cleveland run defense isn’t great but this is a guy who could barely break 4 points for 4 straight weeks! Don’t get cute. Don’t go here. Don’t do it. Please. For me. Don’t do it. If you do, please seek help.

If you want to play someone down here, you can load up on Nick Chubb who will likely be the chalk come Sunday after Carlos Hyde was traded to the Jacksonville Jaguars on Friday.

 

Kerryon Johnson: DK $4500/FD $6500/FD2 $8800 

Projected Ownership: 2.03% 

Kerryon is coming off the bye and has had time to heal a bit of an ankle injury that hampered him before the bye. Johnson has been playing about 42% of the snaps so far this year for the Lions and has been extremely productive with them. Theo Riddick who has been playing 40% of the snaps as well, has been ruled out this week and those reps are likely going to go to Johnson for the most part. Ameer Abdullah and LeGarrette Blount may pick up a few but with how productive Johnson has been, it will be hard for OC Jim Bob Cooter to ignore him.

Johnson has the 4th highest Truck Stick rank on the main slate which is a combination stat that we use at DFSArmy to identify players in great spots.

 

Not only is Johnson is in a spot to see an increased workload, he also gets the 28th ranked Miami Defense in terms of DK points allowed. They have been getting beat up by pass catching backs recently (Tarik Cohen last week, James White a few weeks ago) and this would be great spot for Theo Riddick if he was playing, but since he’s out we will hopefully get to see Kerryon’s pass catching ability in this game. He showed some promise in the preseason but hasn’t really been unleashed yet with Riddick handcuffing him on passing downs.

I love Johnson in GPP this week and think the value he provides allows you to load up on other studs like Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliot, and Adam Thielen. 

Other low owned RB’s I like: Nick Chubb, Latavius Murray, Tarik Cohen, Mark Ingram, I want to play Duke Johnson, but I just don’t trust Hue Jackson to actually use him.

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Wide Receiver:

Here are the top 5 WR’s in projected ownership for DK and their projected points

Look, if you can afford Adam Thielen you put him in your lineup. Doesn’t matter about ownership. He is the best slot WR in the league right now and gets the best matchup possible. Put him in. To be honest, I love this whole group of wide receivers. Landry may be the only one that concerns me with his lack of chemistry with Baker Mayfield. 

DeAndre Hopkins should get the blanket treatment from Jalen Ramsey but I don’t think that matters much. He’s basically matchup proof at this point in his career, especially with the volume that he gets.

Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods are both great options against the 49ers though I likely won’t play them both in the same lineup and if I had to choose it would be Woods, not only does he save you $100 (which is a BIG deal sometimes) but with Woods occupying the slot while Cooper Kupp is out, he gets a better matchup and should see more volume over the middle of the field.

So, if all the chalk WR’s are great plays this week, where do we go?

Taylor Gabriel: DK $4700/FD $5900/FD2 $9200

Projected Ownership: 9.79%

Gabriel has been extremely consistent for a big play threat and has been a huge part of this Chicago Bears offense under new head coach Matt Nagy, including back to back weeks with 100 yards receiving and yet he’s only seen his salary bump up $400 on Draftkings, making him extremely affordable.

Gabriel has been receiving around 7 targets a game and a ADOT of over 12 yards, so Trubisky and the Bears are targeting him down the field. For a deep threat, though he’s been fairly consistent, pulling in 5 catches a game. At $4500 Gabriel has a ceiling of around 20 points and should be able to at minimum get you 10 points.

Another thing in Gabriel’s favor is that he gets to go against a New England secondary thats getting torched by deep threats (See Tyreek Hill last week). I’m not saying that Gabriel and Tyfreak are anywhere near the same player, but Gabriel has 4.4 speed and should be able to take the top off this defense. Trubisky has the arm to get it to him as well.

Belicheck and the Pats like to take away a teams best option and I think that a lot of the scheme this week will be based on taking away Tarik Cohen and Allen Robinson and that leaves Gabriel as the next best option. I also think that Nagy gets Gabriel involved in some sort of gimmick end around player once or twice that he could bust for a big one.

Gabriel is a great option among a bevy of cheap options, but I think he may have the highest ceiling of any.

Other low owned WR options I like: KeKe Coutee, Chester Rogers, Josh Gordon, Willie Snead, Jermaine Kearse, Keelan Cole 

Tight End:

Here are the top 5 TE’s in projected ownership for DK and their projected points

Unlike the last few weeks where we have had a couple cheap TE options to pivot to, this week we are going to be forced to pick from the chalk. These 5 TE’s and maybe Greg Olsen are the only legitimate options we have this week.

Personally, I love Njoku and the matchup he has with the Tampa Bay defense this week. Yes, Njoku has rock hands, but the the volume has been there with Baker Mayfield at the helm, and the targets have actually been increasing each week. He finally found the end zone last week against the Chargers and I would be extremely surprised if he didn’t this week with the plus matchup.

The player I want to highlight though is actually the highest priced player on the slate.

Zach Ertz: DK $7100/FD $7500/FD2 $13,300

Don’t be afraid of the price tag here, you aren’t paying for a TE. Zach Ertz for all intents and purposes is a WR, and a high volume one at that. He runs an average of 30 routes a game, and last week was the first time he wasn’t targeted 10 times, but he was still able to find the end zone.

Ertz’ red zone usage is ridiculous, inside the 10 yard line he has almost half the targets for the entire Eagles offense. Ertz is averaging 19 DK points a game and has broken 20 three times this year. The point I really want to make here though is that while it seems you are paying a ransom for a TE here, you are really paying for a WR. The other WR’s in this price range like Jarvis Landry, Stefon Diggs, Brandin Cooks, and Julian Edleman all average less DK points a game than Ertz.

I really think a double TE approach is fine this week in GPP if you load up on Ertz here at TE. The value at WR allows you to not only get some stud RB’s, but also a WR1 in the TE Spot.

Punt TE option: David Grinnage – Only Tight End available for the Jaguars and they are going up against the 30th ranked pass D against TE’s. At $2500 might be worth a shot in GPP.

Defense:

Back to my old “Don’t Get Cute” motto here. Generally, I don’t like to pay up for Defense, especially in cash. In Cash/GPP/Hybrid I’ll be sticking with the following defenses.

Jaguars: Should be able to get Watson early and often. Don’t love paying up for D but they are facing a QB who was sacked 7 times last week by the Buffalo Bills.

Vikings: My favorite D of the week, and not because I’m a Vikings fan. We just saw what a good defense can do to a rookie QB with the Broncos and Josh Rosen on Thursday night. The Jets are also dealing with a plethora of injuries in their WR corps. My cash D this week will be the Vikings.

Colts/Bills: Either or here. Bills are cheaper and have actually been pretty solid this year. Derek Anderson is getting the start for the Bills and while he has been fairly competent through his career, I don’t expect him to do much here and I don’t expect him to turn the ball over a ton either, which makes me lean Bills a bit more .

Final Fade:

Ok, I got burned here last week by fading Latavius Murray, I won’t be doing that again and I think he’s in play this week with Dalvin Cook out. While I like the idea of Carlos Hyde in Jacksonville, I’m not playing a guy who just got into a system a few days ago. Yeldon likely won’t be rushed back now that they have Hyde but I still don’t really want to target a player in this situation.