Where Do I Begin?

I have created a strategy guideline for members to read and use for each specific weekly playbook for the NFL season. I would suggest opening it up and reading it prior to using the playbook below.

Week 8 Playbook

QUARTERBACK

Patrick Mahomes – Alright, so I’ve discussed here before and in the “Playbook Strategy Guide” linked below the quarterback section that I use specific global exposure maximum’s. However, I’ve also mentioned that I believe DFS needs guidelines, not rules, and that’s how I play my DFS. I am going to own Mahomes on both sites in about 75% or so of all my entries at every buy-in level and entry size. I don’t care about chalk, I don’t care about price (which I don’t think he’s too expensive at all for his production and ceiling), and I don’t care about the other decent options on the slate. I am going so heavy on Mahomes and just going to go from there. This means sacrifices will need to be made elsewhere and I am okay with that. If Mahomes goes for 35 fantasy points the sacrifice was worth it and I think there is some value to be had this week.

Aaron Rodgers – He should never be a 9.0 point underdog and he’s thrown 867 yards in the past two games over 96 passing attempts. He attempted 18 red zone passes from weeks 1-4, in the last two weeks (5/6) he’s attempted 18 red zone passes and has 5 red zone touchdowns. Wild. The Rams are going to score at will on the Packers and Rodgers is going to throw the ball 55-60 times (one can hope) to keep them in this game. He’ll be my second most owned player and I actually think he’s a decent bargain on DraftKings.

Andy Dalton is in a bounce-back spot as a home favorite against a defense that until last week was the worst in the NFL against the pass. They are wretched and I think a new defensive coordinator can inspire his players for a moment but not an elongated time. I believe Dalton and friends are in a great spot and I love the idea of stacking him with both A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd while running it back with Mike Evans (Bengals have been terrible against elite WRs). He’s purely a FanDuel play this week.

Russell Wilson will be 1-3% owned on both sites and has only thrown 20-25 passing attempts the last two games. I get it, I really do. But Wilson has multiple touchdown passes in 15 of the last 17 games and his WR1 for the past three years looked fully healthy last week (Doug Baldwin). I think the Lions are going to pour on the points this week which will force Wilson to actually have to throw the ball 30-35 times and with his super efficient style of play I think he can go for a season high in points, possibly 24-28 type production. He’s perfect for large field GPPs and MME.

Ben Roethlisberger is another extremely affordable quarterback on DraftKings and that’s where I’ll isolate my exposure to him. He has 28.02, 15.86, 22.60, and 24.56 DK points in his last four games and now gets a nice divisional home game against a team they haven’t lost to at home since 2003. Big Ben might not need to chuck it 40-45 times in this game but I still think that at that price tag we can get 20-22 points and be happy with the production and salary relief off of Mahomes.

FanDuel QB Pool: Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Andy Dalton, Russell Wilson

DrafKings QB Pool: Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson

Need help using the optimizer? Check out my tutorial of how I personally use the optimizer in the MME Playbook Strategy Guide.

***These are the guys I will put varying minimum exposure percentages on – if you follow my pool make sure to that their total min exposure doesn’t add up over 60-80%. I always leave the optimizer some wiggle room to force in some of its algorithm choices that I might not even have in my player pool. I want the DS to pick some different guys for me that I might be missing.***

RUNNING BACK

Todd Gurley on DraftKings needs to be in 50% of your lineups. In the other 50%, I suggest locking James Conner and Kareem Hunt together. It’s that simple to me for this week based on price tag, implied total, and matchup.

Gurley leads the league in red zone touches, carries inside the 10, carries inside the 5, and red zone touchdown rate (22.5) per touch. The Rams are home, they are implied to score 33 points, and they are 9.0 point favorites. Literally every box is checked and he’s under 10k, which is a price drop after he just scored 30+ for his 3rd time in 4 weeks.

On FanDuel, it gets extremely tricky. He’s $11,000 and that’s a lot of coin. I want to lay out a scenario and allow you to make your decision of what you’d like to do with him this week.

Gurley + Jalen Richard equals a salary of $16,700
James Conner + Kareem Hunt equals $16,100

Which combination has more upside?

Which combination has higher floor?

It’s a tough choice but the beauty of MME is that we get to do them both. Similar to DraftKings, I think there will be two chalky builds. One will be where Gurley is plugged in and then a cheap RB2 is plugged in. The second will be no Gurley and then Conner and Hunt are plugged in.

For me personally, I love the idea of going extremely heavy on Gurley and Richard, or Gurley and Ty Montgomery (who will play a ton of the Rams score at will). The Gurley and TyMont stack is a very interesting one and I think it will be extremely unique. TyMont is the preferred passing down back for the Packers so if we believe the Rams hit their implied total of 33 points (or more), then we can theorize that Todd Gurley was the reason and TyMont can rack up receptions and yards during comeback mode (or garbage time).

I will have my fair share of both James Conner and Kareem Hunt.

For Conner, I love the idea of stacking him with ALL of my Steelers defense exposure. I think the Steelers are my favorite of the entire week as they are a top-3 pass rush unit playing at home as a heavy favorite against a bottom-3 pass blocking unit. I can foresee plenty of sacks and turnovers leading to short field opportunities for Conner.

Kareem Hunt is a phenomenal stacking option WITH at least half of my Mahomes shares. He’s had 18 plus touches in virtually every game this year and is turning on the jets when hitting the open field again. Mahomes and the talent around him is an unstoppable machine. Denver is going to get romped.

David Johnson is a nice pivot off of Joe Mixon (I’ll have some shares of him, too). DJ gets a new offensive coordinator likely coaching for an opportunity to keep the job next year and earn his place in the league (Byron Leftwhich takes over this week). I have the feeling DJ will be featured in the exact way he was in 2015-2017 and could have his best week of the season in Week 8. I think Joe Mixon will have twice the ownership of Johnson. Thus, great pivot!

Joe Mixon is in a good spot against the Buccaneers because I think the entire Bengals squad is going to bounce-back strong. I don’t want a lot of exposure at all but something like 10% or so would suffice.

Nick Chubb is way too cheap pretty much everywhere but on FanDuel. On FD I think he’s priced at value. We need some cheaper guys though and I’ll use him even though I think he’ll largely be touchdown dependent. However, he’s a nice hedge play since I’ll have plenty of Steelers defense. If the Steelers stink it up it will be because Chubb is running so well that Mayfield isn’t dropping back to throw as frequently.

Marlon Mack is going to be in a great game script this week as I personally believe the Colts are going to blow out the Raiders. He’s low-mid tier priced and has 100 yards and a touchdown upside. Stack him with the Colts defense.

Jalen Richard is just $4,200 on DraftKings and I think he honestly ends up with more touches than Doug Martin. Richard is the passing down option and they’re devoid of playmakers without Amari Cooper. I think Richard gets a dozen or so touches in this game and has always looked good with the football in his hands. It’s breakout time, Richard!

Ronald Jones would be in play if the terrible Peyton Barber misses Week 8. Low exposure to a guy like this low as he’s shown us nothing to date. He’d be in the same arena as Richard, Ty Montgomery, and maybe Philip Lindsay (only in stacks opposite of Mahomes and only if Royce Freeman is out).

*Note* I mentioned the site I preferred a running back on if there was a preference at all. If I didn’t label it then they’re fine for both.

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WIDE RECEIVER

Jarvis Landry faces another bottom-5 defense against the slot wide receiver position. He’s a solid option at his price tag across the industry but I won’t use him if using the Steelers defense in the same lineup. Landry is someone I wouldn’t mind having with Chubb just due to their volume and role on the team and make sure you don’t use them against the Steelers defense in the lineup.

Robert Woods ran slightly over 60% of his routes out of the slot with Cooper Kupp sidelined in Week 7. He’s a great pivot off of Tyreek Hill and although I will have a lot of Hill, I love the pivot to Woods in what is just as good of a spot. The Rams have such a massive total and they’re going to score multiple touchdowns. I think Woods will have half of the ownership of Hill and although he doesn’t have nearly the same ceiling, all it takes is a nice 22 point effort from Woods and a pedestrian game from Hill to dwarf 30% of the field with this pivot.

He’s just $6,800 on DraftKings and is my favorite higher end value play on DK at the WR position. I will be ALL OVER this spot at this price on DK.

Tyreek Hill is going to be the chalk wide receiver of the week. On FanDuel, he’s just $7,800! It’s wild how many targets he’s receiving; 10, 12, 7, and 13 over his last four games. He’s not just a big play guy off a few targets per game. They use him as a legit primary target and at his current price tag he’s likely the best value on the entire slate no matter what position (when taking his ceiling into consideration for GPPs). He had 13 targets the last time these two teams face at the beginning of October.

On DraftKings, Hill is $8.600 and not a value at all. He’s priced at value there and his ceiling is baked into his price. On FanDuel, I’ll be heavy handed on my exposure to Hill, on DraftKings, I like paying down a bit at wide receiver. I’ll of course have him on DK but I’ll be underweight.

Antonio Brown is my preferred elite priced wide receiver on DraftKings. He’s a PPR machine and a big play guy to boot. He has scored 17, 17.2, 31.1, and 24.5 in his last four games and has at least 1 TD in each game and 100 yards in back to back games. He’s still just mid-8k and I’ll have 2-3x the exposure to Brown than I do for Hill. I really like the idea of using Mahomes and then just rolling out Antonio Brown, that way I get pieces of both the Steelers offense and the Chiefs offense while not stacking Hill on DK with Mahomes.

Davante Adams is in play on both sites due to his volume and touchdown equity. In his last three games he has 14, 12, and 16 targets. In the last two games, Adams has 19 receptions for 272 yards and 3 touchdowns. Rodgers is peppering him with targets and Adams has 3 red zone touchdowns in the last two games. He’s a super “hybrid” target and is in play in all formats and on all sites.

Brandin Cooks is in play on FanDuel for all the same reasons as his counterpart, Robert Woods. However, on DraftKings, he’s way too cheap – just like Robert Woods! These two are priced at 6.8k and 6.9k and are playing on a home team projected to score 33 points. What’s not to like? He’s also a nice leverage play off the Woods chalk on DK. Because of their price tag, even though Goff isn’t listed on my QB list, I will have Goff + Woods + Cooks in several lineups with Davante Adams on the other side. I don’t really want exposure to Goff but I would want him in this specific stack for a large field GPP.

Mike Evans gets to tee off against a Bengals unit that has given up 100 + yards to every elite WR they have faced this season. I suspect this game is high-scoring and I think Evans gets peppered with 15 or so targets leading to his best game of the season. He’s purely a GPP play though as the Buccs are road underdogs. He has an elite ceiling but is priced just under what the elite wide receivers are priced at.

Tyler Boyd will get to run out of the slot receiver position on the majority of his routes against a bottom-3 team against slot wide receiers. Boyd has been incredibly volatile but when he does well he can win you a GPP. His suppressed ownership + spot he’s in makes him an incredible MME target. I love him across the industry.

T.Y. Hilton is in play across the industry as well due to his volume and *gasp* his red zone work! Hilton has 9 red zone targets this season which he has turned into 4 red zone touchdowns. He has as many touchdowns in the red zone as Julio Jones has targets in the red zone. I think the Colts drop 35-42 points on the Raiders in a blow out road victory. I like all their pieces but want to focus my exposure to Mack/Hilton/Colts DEF.

Martavis Bryant apparently will be stepping into a lead role with the Raiders shipping out Amari Cooper, however, I only am targeting him for his salary relief. I don’t trust Carr or this team or this matchup. Bryant is incredibly cheap and definitely needs to be rostered in MME due to the salary relief that he provides.

Doug Baldwin continues to make this MME play pool of mine due to his price tag. He used to be an $8,000 + player on both sites and it’s only a matter of time until Russell Wilson starts to throw the ball 35x per game and heat up (like Geek talked about on our Tuesday podcast). Russ Wilson has multiple touchdowns in 15 of 17 games and Baldwin has a lot to do with that. He’s too cheap and I think this game is sneaky good for DFS.

Kenny Golladay could find himself as the lead wide receiver if Golden Tate misses this game. I actually think Tate will have 3-4x the ownership this week of Kenny G based on the narrative of Tate facing his old team. Fact: Tate has faced them 3x in his career and never once had more than 4 catches. Pass on Tate, jump on Kenny G.

TIGHT END

David Njoku is a top-3 TE in the NFL (fantasy wise) since Mayfield took over as the starting QB. Crazy. As long as he’s active he’s my top tight-end across the industry this week against a team that can’t cover opposing tight ends. He has back to back red zone touchdowns and is still near the top of the NFL in air yards at the tight end position.

Jared Cook is a solid play this week due to the fact that someone has to catch the football in Oakland. I think Cook is a better play on DK but with the lack of options he’s in play on FanDuel as well.

Travis Kelce has a massive ceiling in this matchup but his price has been elevated pretty high. He’s up to $7,300 on FanDuel and $6,800 on DraftKings. It’s been three weeks since he’s scored into the 20’s and his ownership has been decreasing each week. He’s an incredible leverage play off of Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt, because if Hill gets a couple red zone touchdowns that Hunt or Hill don’t get then the chalk on Hill and Hunt get burned. I wouldn’t really want to use Kelce with either of those two but I love the idea of going out of my way to target him when not using either.

DEFENSE

Steelers DEF faces the worst pass-blocking unit in the NFL and has a top-3 pass rush. The Browns are in trouble and Mayfield is going to be running for his life. Unless Nick Chubb runs for 150 and takes the ball out of Mayfield’s hands, then the Steelers front 7 is going to be very active. They are going to be massive chalk on DraftKings at just $2,300 and I have no problem eating the chalk.

On FanDuel, they will still be highly owned but not the huge chalk I think we see on DK. I love them either way at just $3,800 on FD.

Cardinals DEF is super cheap across the industry and facing a devoid of talent and playmaking 49ers team. Stack David Johnson with the Cardinals defense.

Chiefs DEF might have the best bet for a defensive touchdown against the Broncos who will be forced to air it out to keep pace or catchup to the Mahomes led 5-7 touchdowns. I think they have the highest ceiling of the week and I love them more for larger field GPPs. Use the Steelers in cash games or small GPPs.

Ravens DEF might not have touchdown potential but definitely sack and interception potential as well as keeping the score low.

Panthers DEF should have their way with the Ravens pass blocking unit and similar to the Ravens I can see multiple sacks and turnovers with a low score. Likely a low ceiling with no touchdown potential but solid floor.

Bears DEF will be low single-digit owned due to their inflated price tag. Here’s the deal – they aren’t a “great” play due to their price. However, they are a “great” play due to their price. Did I just blow your mind? Because they are overpriced their ownership is going to be low because they are just not worth paying up for – which inherently makes them worth paying up for in GPPs.

When the field zigs you have to zag. The Bears had 4, 6, 4, 4 sacks before only getting 1 in the last two games.

The bears had 2, 2, 4, 3, 3, 3 turnovers in the last 6 games. The Jets can’t pass block, the Jets turn the ball over, the Jets won’t have Bilall Powell and might not have Robby Anderson, the Bears are incredibly opportunistic. Yes, we have to pay an arm and a leg for them but if they go for 25-30 points at 5% ownership you can win a GPP. Keep your exposure lower to them than the rest of the list but definitely grab some shares.

Exposures

I plan on having a global max exposure cap at 55-60%. Everything for MME is still more game theory and correlation than most optimal approach. It’s projecting scenarios and hypothetical situations, ownership, and production. Anything goes and I want to make sure I have a pulse if some of the higher owned guys “dud”. Make sure you lower the cap on guys you don’t want a ton of but know you probably should have some of. If the DS pumps out too high of a percentage on a player, don’t ask the staff if 90% is okay, just lower the individual exposure on him. We really don’t want to do that on anybody ever unless we are having to make an all or nothing decision on mega-chalk.

Two Minute Warning

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MME and GPP Playbook for NFL DFS in Week 8 on FanDuel and DraftKings