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MLB DFS Game 163 2-Game Breakdown for Fanduel and Draftkings

Welcome to the playoff edition of my articles! I will break down each game for you all for the 2 games today! Lock is at 1 pm est!

In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.

I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!

I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from both sites (Fanduel and Draftkings) Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.

Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!

NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!

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If you find yourself thinking, “what do some of these stats mean?” Check out my new definitions article HERE. I explain what each stat I use mean, and reasons why I use those stats in my articles!

Game 163 Breakdowns!

Welcome to Playoff Baseball! The atmosphere is electric and October is where the magic happens! Below is the breakdown of the two games tonight that will determine the NL Wild Card and Divion Winners! 

Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs (-123) O/U: 8

Jhoulys Chacin (R) vs Jose Quintana (L)

PITCHING

Chacin: We didn’t find out until late that Chacin would be the starter for the Brewers today in Game 163. For me, I’m not really on him much. He is the cheapest in the 2 games, but I’d rather use the other 3 than Chacin. Where Chacin struggles is with lefties and the Cubs will be rolling out 5 in their lineup today. Chacin has been shaky of late too, I’m avoiding him and loading up on the Cubs lefties.

Quintana: This is a tricky spot for Quintana today. I do like how he’s had so much success against the Brewers in his career but they are on fire right now. I hate how unpredictable he is, but when he’s on he can rack up points. Last time he faced them he was able to get 39 fanduel points and went 6.2 innings. My issues with him are he’s only gone 6 innings 3 times in his last 8 starts which limits his upside, especially on fanduel where you get extra points for a QS. The Brewers lineup has a career .221 average against Quintana over 231 at-bats, but I think the hot bats beat out the career history. He does have 10+ strikeouts against 3 guys in their lineup but has allowed a couple of home runs. He’s worth a shot if you want to, but I’ll be much higher on the two guys in the later game.

BATS

Cubs: Like I said above, I love the lefties for the Cubs this afternoon. Chacin struggles against lefties and has allowed a .369 xwOBA against lefties this season. Rizzo is my top guy here for the Cubs. he comes into this game with a .399 wOBA in his last 7 days and has 2 career HR off Chacin. I LOVE Daniel Murphy leading off, he’s an on-base machine and has some pop. He’s been great of late too and has good BvP numbers against Chacin as well hitting 8-20 (.400) with 2 HR too. Zobrist has been a bit cold of late but he is great at working counts and getting on base too also he’s hitting behind Murphy and ahead of Baez. Baez and Bryant are big power guys you can add to your stacks as well. These are the main guys I’ll look at for the Cubs, I do like the lefties more (Rizzo, Murphy, Zobrist), but if you want to round your stacks with Bryant or Baez I have no issues with that.

Brewers: They are hot as heck right now. They have 6 hitters with over a .319 wOBA in the last 2 weeks and 9 with over a .314 wOBA in the last week. Quintana has good numbers vs the Brewers, but as I said, I favor the Brewers hitters. I like the righties more as Quintana has allowed a .344 xwOBA to RHH and 20 of his 25 home runs allowed were to righties this season. Ryan Braun would be my first guy to look at here along with Lorenzo Cain. Finish your 1-2-3 Brewers stacks with Yelich. People may be off him in a LvL situation, but he’s actually hit for a higher average against lefties and has 10 home runs off lefties this season. I can see him getting the triple crown once today’s game is over. Jonathan Schoop is a decent option batting 5th and just 3k/3.5k he’s decent value in a stacked lineup. Arcia is another value bat at the bottom of the order who has a .334 wOBA in the last week. He’s not really flashy, but at a cheap price in a favorable matchup, I don’t mind it.

Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-170) O/U: 7

German Marquez (R) vs Walker Buehler (R) 

Pitching

Marquez: I absolutely love both sides of this game for pitching and these are my two pitchers for today. Marquez has a good history against the Dodgers and has been on fire lately. This is the game where he can pop off for another 50+ point fanduel game. He has also been lights out on the road allowing under a .200 average and a .258 wOBA. His strikeout rate sits around 28% and he’s been racking up the K’s lately. Against them this season (3 starts), he has thrown 21 innings with 22 strikeouts, allowing just 6 runs. The Dodgers have not been striking out a ton of late to RHP, but Marquez finds ways to get the strikeouts. This game will likely be low scoring.

Buehler: Again, I love Buehler this afternoon. This game will be mainly 1-offs to fill lineups because I love these pitchers too much. Colorado has been striking out a bit more than the Dodgers against RHP and he just struck out 12 in his last start at home against the Rockies. Buehler has been amazing at home this season and has over a 30% strikeout rate at home while not giving up many home runs. He’s my top arm for these two games.

Bats

Rockies: Like I said I’m not a huge fan of the hitters in this game. Vegas has a low total and these two pitchers are amazing. Buehler is great to both sides of the plate, so I’d want some power guys who could pop off for an extra-base hit. The main one-offs I’ll look to are Arenado, Blackmon, and Story. All of which have power upside and get one base. If Parra cracks the lineup he could be a decent value play at just 2.2k on FD and 3.6k on DK. Carlos Gonzalez has been a bit warmer than Blackmon of late, and for a big discount, you can use him for value too.

Dodgers: Again, more so one-offs for the Dodgers too. I would stack up that first game and use 1-2 players from these two teams to round off your lineups. Grandal hits betters from the left side and that’s where his power is. He has a .512 wOBA over the last week and is a decent price. Joc Pederson has 2 HR off Marquez and always is a power threat in the order. Cody Bellinger is not as hot lately, but still near a .400 xwOBA and has power. The last guy who seems to be heating up at the right time for the Dodgers is Max Muncy. He showed us great power at times this season and has a .531 wOBA and .320 ISO in his last 2 weeks vs RHP.

FINAL THOUGHTS

These games could both be really close and we could have a low scoring DFS Slate. I do prefer the bats from the first game more, favoring the Cubs lefties followed by the Brewers righties (and Yelich). For the Rockies and the Dodgers, this game has the makings of a 2-1 or 1-0 game this afternoon. I like the power guys as 0ne-offs today. On small slates, we need to nail that home run or extra-base hit to get us into the money.

Please play light on these small slates for the playoffs as we will normally see elite pitching. As we have seen, elite pitchers do get hit too so we will need to pick our spots wisely. Good Luck DFS Army!