This early in the season we still don’t have a large enough sample size to start looking at things like Corsi numbers. We almost have to just eyeball hot starts combined with historical performance to make up our player pools. There are only 4 games on the slate tonight. I am only really looking at the players that have been hot or leading their teams so far this year. Dont forget about regulars that might be having slow starts. Their slow starts might actually have them priced down a bit and presenting some value.
Dallas ( 3-1-0) at Ottawa ( 2-2-1) O/U 6 ITT Dal ( 3.4) vs Ott ( 2.31)
Dallas is the clear favorite in this game. Dallas is giving up 2.75 goals while scoring 4.25 per game. Ottawa is scoring 4 and giving up 4.2. Something about Ottawa just isn’t passing the smell test. While they both have been scoring over 4 goals a game, Bishop has been giving better goaltending. I am not suggesting Bishop for cash games though. Anderson I would only look at as a hedge in MME tournaments. Dal1 is all in play, with all three of them averaging 2 or more points per game so far this season, having scored 11 of the teams 17 goals, though I have seen some talk of Radulov playing on Dal2, so keep an eye on that. Klingberg on Defense is bringing a solid floor with over 3.5 SOGBS per game as well as adding 3 G and 2 A assists over the 4 games. It will be tough to fit too many of these guys in your line up though. For Ottawa, Chabot ( 2 G 6 A) and Lajoie ( 3G 3A ) lead the way from the back end, while Tierney ( 2 G 5 A) and Tkachuk (2G 3A ) are the leaders up front. Most of Tkachuk’s scoring came in one game though. Of interest is that Ottawa won both games last season outscoring Dallas by a total of 8-4.
Los Angeles (2-2-1) at Toronto (5-1-0) O/U 6 ITT LA ( 2.5) vs Tor ( 3.63)
Its hard not to like Toronto here. Even with what seemed like a bit of an off night, they still scored 4 against Washington Saturday. The Leafs are scoring an average of over 4.8 goals per game while giving up 3.67. LA is giving up 2.4 gpg and scoring 2.2. Campbell has looked really good in net for the Kings, but I would not call him cash safe given what Toronto can do. I wouldn’t blame you if you considered Mathews ( 10 G 4 A) and Tavares ( 6G 4 A) as a 1-2 punch at centre tonight, though it would cost you a lot so is likely more of a gpp play. Marner ( 3G 7A) and Dman Reilly (3G 10A) round out your top scoring options for the Leafs. Kapanen ( 2G 4A) offers some cheap GPP exposure( 3800 on FD ) to the first line, though he doesn’t get PP time. For LA Iafallo ( 2G 2A) leads the team in scoring early, along with Taffoli ( 1G 3A). Muzzin ( 0G 3A) can be a punt Dman. While LA isn’t scoring much, Toronto is giving up goals. Last season the teams split a pair of 3-2 wins.
Detroit ( 0-3-2) at Montreal (2-1-1) O/U 5.5 ITT Det ( 2.4) vs Mon ( 3.06)
Detroit is giving up a whopping 4.6 gpg, while only scoring 2.2 Montreal is slightly better offensively scoring 2.75 and much better on Defense giving up 2.25. However Price gets the night off so Niemi will be starting for Montreal. Howard is projected for Det. Niemi makes an intriguing play in either format tonight, while Howard should be reserved for MME gpp. With so few goals scored by either side, there are not many standouts. Larkin ( 3g 2A) might be the best bet if you aren’t using Niemi, while Bertuzzi ( 2g 2 a) and Nyquist ( 0 g 4 a) might have some value. Byron and Tatar each with ( 2G 2 A) lead the forwards, but perennial cash game value play Petry ( 0 G 4 A) and over 3.6 SOGBS per game might be the best option from this game. Montreal swept the 4 game series last season, outscoring Detroit by an average of 6 -2.25.
Minnesota ( 1-1-2) at Nashville ( 4-1) O/U 5.5 ITT Min (2.2) vs Nash (3.3)
You have to pay up for him, but Rinne stands out as a cash play in net tonight, especially given all the back ups playing today, one of whom is Stalock in the Wild net. Nash is only allowing 2 gpg, while scoring 3. Min is only scoring 2.25 gpg while giving up 3.5. Min did win the season series last year, but Nash is one of the top teams at home. Forsberg ( 3 G 2 A) Arvidsson ( 3G 2 A) Hartman ( 1g 3a ) and Johanson(1g 4 a) are all in play up front. Subban ( 1 g 3 a) is always in play on the back end, but Ekholm ( 1 g 4 a) and his cost savings is probably the safer play tonight. For Min Zucker ( 3G 1 a) and Pariese ( 1g 4 a) could be in play, while Suter ( 1 g 3 a ) could be of use on the back end. This game feels like it will lean to the under
Come join us in the private coaching community where there are always great discussions and the coaches do their best to help us all learn how to be better players and make better plays. Some of the best info will come from chat, as well as links to various player lists etc.
Good luck.
JD