Gameweek 8 for English Premier League Soccer should have been full of fireworks. To some extent it was, just not where I thought it would be. There were way too many red cards that zapped a lot of value out of this slate. Cardiff, Watford and Leicester all saw red and were forced to go on the defensive. That killed our prospects and the model went 1-3 for plays on the main. That brings us to 10-9.
Burnley/Huddersfield – BUR 2+ goals = LOSS
Watford/Bournemouth – Both teams to score 2+ goals = LOSS (Bournemouth did but not Watford)
Crystal Palace/Wolverhampton – Under 1.5 goals = WIN
Leicester/Everton – Both teams to score 2+ goals = LOSS (Everton did but Leicester finished with 1)
We’re running it right back. This week we are on the sides, more so than goal tallies.
Remember to check Sniper’s Slide Tackle for some player picks. The odds I will be using will be taken from Ladbrokes.
Cardiff v Fulham
The books want you to believe that Cardiff has a chance in this one, and they do; but Fulham is much more poised to take advantage of them in an open game. The narrative right now is how bad Fulham is on defense. They are terrible and will likely concede a goal (yay we get to play some Cardiff!), but Cardiff are still bad themselves and Fulham has better attacking pieces. The model is heavy on Fulham winning outright (24.89% over books) and it fancies the over, slightly, on 2.5 goals in this one.
Model’s play: a Fulham victory.
Newcastle v Brighton
The books give Newcastle a 40% chance to win tomorrow and Brighton 28. My model backs Brighton at almost 38% and Newcastle 31.65%. If taking this match it is all about getting on the right side of a rather low scoring affair. I am not saying you have to get on board with this game if you don’t want to but, if you do, shade to the Brighton side. Newcastle got up for a game and gave it all they had only to lose in the end. What’s their mindset after a loss like that?
Model’s play: Brighton victory.
Wolverhampton v Watford
Before we get to the plays, let’s examine the narratives. Wolverhampton is very much a public team. Everyone remembers the draw they got against Man City and how they have stifled various other teams along the way. Watford started the season 3-0 before going 0-1-3 in their next 4. The shine has come off and a red card and a loss 4-0 to Bournemouth will have plenty thinking this is the Watford club of yesteryear. Now, what if I told you that Watford has been the unluckiest club over the last 3 weeks? While they may have only scored 1 goal over that span, they were expected to have scored 5.22. That means they were missing 4 goals. Wolverhampton has a +.65 in the same respect, meaning they have gotten slightly fortunate. You could argue they are on their mark, really.
Now, we can see that Watford is due for some positive goal regression at some point, probably soon; and Wolverhampton, over the past 3 games, is playing better defense (statistically, in terms of conceding goals) than their season average. I am not going to tell you what to do, but Watford could be a sneaky team in GPP. I don’t mind rostering a couple of these guys including the keeper. The books like the Wolves at 48% win odds and Watford 22.74%, but the model gives Watford a +5.38% edge in win odds (37.55% to 32.17%). The model also like going under 2.5 goals in this one (66.15% on U2.5).
Model’s play: Watford Victory. If betting, cover yourself with the draw (30.28% draw odds and 26% of Premier League games end in a draw.
The dirty work is now done. Hold court and climb the EPL DFS leaderboards!