Welcome Fight Fans to without a doubt the most anticipated fight this year. Finally, Conor McGregor makes his return to the octagon to take on the light heavyweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov. To welcome his return Draftkings has rolled out all the stops and we have the highest prize pool I can recall in MMA. Normally I don’t like to chase in tournaments but, it’s awfully enticing this week. I am still playing my normal number of h2h’s but, I am taking some chances in some tournaments. Overall we have 12 fights on this card and lots of ways to attack this slate.
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As always have some fun in tournaments this week. Just remember the Golden Rule! While chasing after the big payout is enticing always remember bankroll management. I am a firm believer in the 80-20 rule. Which is 80% of your allocated bankroll for the night in cash games and 20% in tournaments. Remember to take advantage of our Research Station and Domination Station. Plus check out the podcast, and follow me on Twitter (@MMACashAssassin) for the latest MMA and DFS Army news! Let’s break down these fights.
For those of you new to MMA here is a breakdown of the scoring used on Draftkings.
DFS MMA UFC 229 Fighter Advice
Fights to Target In Cash
First off before I give breakdowns here. What we are looking for in cash games is safety with a nice floor. It might be taking a high priced favorite in a good spot. It could also be a value play based on odds and pricing. Often times in cash I will look to stack a fight specifically if it has the potential to go 5 rounds (always the main event on the card or a championship fight). Now both sides of a fight may not be cash viable in a fight but, at least 1 of them is under this group.
Nurmagomedov (-165) 8.4k vs McGregor (+155) 7.8k
Let’s just get this out of the way. In cash games just stack this fight and move on.
Ok now that we have that out of the way. Let’s discuss this fight from a tournament standpoint. Nurmagomedov (Khabib) is an excellent grappler and has very good takedowns (averages 5.44 TD’s per fight). He is solid in the clinch and has very good ground and pound when he is in top control. McGregor is a good striker (5.82 Significant Strikes per minute) and has very good power. He has very underrated wrestling.
Vegas is expecting this fight to end inside the distance (ITD) -365. From a Draftkings perspective whoever wins this fight will be on the optimal lineup and I will personally have 100% exposure to this fight. Honestly, this fight is a toss-up so, if you want to play it safe just have 50% exposure to both. That’s not the way I am leaning currently. I honestly think at his Draftkings salary McGregor could be the highest owned on the entire slate. For that reason, I am considering having slight higher ownership on Khabib as an ownership play. If you like Conor more in this spot you could honestly do the same thing vice versa. Either way, you need exposure to both fighters.
Luque (-850) 9.4k vs Turner (+575) 6.8k
Luque is a good striker (3.24 SS’s) and has decent power. He has decent TD’s and solid submissions. Turner is moving up a weight class for this fight. He is a decent striker and has ok power.
Just looking at the odds Luque is a very solid cash play on Draftkings. He has the 3rd best line value based on our MMA Research Station. He is also the highest priced fighter on the entire card. So the big question. How strong of a play is he in tournaments? First, let’s start with Vegas odds and they really like this fight ending ITD (-365). That is currently tied with the 2nd best odds to finish on the entire card. Then looking at the prop on Luque (-270 ITD) I think makes for a very solid tournament play on Draftkings. Turner I don’t have much interest in other than a GPP punt if you are building more than 20+ lineups. Overall Luque is a solid play in all formats.
Ferguson (-370) 9.3k vs A. Pettis (+310) 6.9k
Ferguson is a good striker (5.09 SS’s per minute) and has ok power. He is a solid wrestler as well. Pettis is a good striker and has decent submissions. The big question concerning Ferguson is how will he look in his 1st fight back since knee surgery.
Looking at Vegas they are close to 50/50 on if this fight ends early or goes to decision. Let’s take our 1st glance at our DFSARMY exclusive research station.
Based on our projections Ferguson has the 2nd highest Win% behind only Luque. I think this puts Ferguson squarely into play in both cash games and tournaments. While Ferguson is possibly 1 of my favorite plays on the card you still need some exposure to Pettis. Especially at his 6.9k salary on Draftkings. Overall my preferred play is Ferguson with a couple shares of Pettis as a hedge play.
LaFlare (-135) 8.8k vs Martin (+115) 7.4k
LaFlare is a solid wrestler and has good TD’s (2.3 per fight). Martin is a solid striker (2.77 SS’s per minute) and has decent leg kicks. Based just on odds and price Martin right away pops off as a great cash play.
Vegas is fully expecting this fight to go the distance (-350). Why don’t we take a glance at our Research Station and see what it thinks.
Based on those numbers Martin is 1 of the best sub 8k fighters on the slate besides McGregor. Martin is one of my favorite dogs on the entire slate (I have some inside info as to why, but saving that for our VIP Podcast). I will more than likely have some small exposure to LaFlare in a win it would most likely be through his wrestling so, he could potentially put up a decent score. There are just several fighters around him a prefer more.
Kunitskaya (-225) 8.5k vs Lansberg (+185) 7.7k
Kunitskaya will have a significant size advantage here. She is very solid in the clinch and has good TD’s (4.39 per fight). She is an ok striker and has decent submissions. Lansberg is a tough fighter. She is good in the clinch and has good elbows. I don’t know how much exposure I want to this fight in tournaments. But at her price tag of 8.5k on Draftkings Kunitskaya is on my radar as a cash play depending on your lineup construction. She is the favorite in a fight Vegas likes to go to decision (-205). In a win, it will likely be grappling based and I like the fact she could put up a decent score if that’s the case. My only cause for concern and why I am not so sure of her in tournaments is her low output rate (1.46 SS’s) if the fight stays standing. Lansberg doesn’t interest me much at all in any format.
S. Pettis (-155) 8.6k vs Formiga (+135) 7.6k
Pettis is a good striker (3.74 SS’s per minute) and has good footwork. Formiga has good TD’s (1.84 per fight) and is solid on the ground. He is an ok striker and has decent submissions. It’s your typical striker vs grappler matchup let’s see how the Research Station sees this 1 going.
I was that high on Pettis before seeing these numbers. This even moves me more off of him. Formiga is one of those fighters in that once he gets you down it’s very difficult to get back up. Plus with Vegas liking this fight to go to decision (-280) I think Formiga is worth considering as a punt in both cash and tournaments. Pettis, I will have very little if any exposure to just solely based on those numbers.
Fights to Target in Tournaments
Unlike the cash fights from above. These tournament fights carry greater risk. While they may have a lower floor these fights have higher ceilings. Which when mixed with the right amount of cash plays can yield huge dividends in tournaments.
Reyes (-230) 8.9k vs Saint Preux (+190) 7.3k
Reyes good striker (6.95 SS’s per minute) and has solid power. Saint Preux (OSP) is a solid striker (2.69 SS’s per minute) and has good power. This fight has the highest ITD line on the entire card (-550). Basically, somebody is taking a canvas nap in this 1. So do we side with the more experienced fighter with the questionable cardio in OSP or do we side with the fighter taking a big step up in competition in Reyes.
The Research Station loves Reyes in this spot and I tend to agree with that assessment. Now with such a high ITD I will definitely have some OSP exposure as well. My preferred play is Reyes (worth noting earlier in the week Reyes was in my cash lineup).
Volkov (-170) 8.7k vs Lewis (+150) 7.5k
Volkov is a decent striker and has good leg kicks. He is a decent grappler and has good cardio. Lewis is a good striker and has solid power. I honestly wanted to put this under fights to fade but with an ITD prop of -190 I can’t do it. Lewis typically doesn’t land a ton of volume he just knocks people out. Volkov at least lands at a decent output (4.84 SS’s).
Lewis has the slight edge here. I am not going to go out of my way to target this fight, but I think it warrants some exposure if you are building more than 20+ lineups. My preferred play is Volkov.
Lentz (-245) 9k vs Maynard (+205) 7.2k
Lentz is a decent overall fighter. He is an ok striker and has decent submissions. Maynard is a former D1 wrestler. He is a decent striker and has ok power. Vegas likes this fight to go to decision (-245). For that reason alone I am not sure Lentz makes value at his 9k salary. Maynard at least interests me a tiny bit because of his 7.2k salary. Both fighters have some upside through their wrestling. Most likely this is a fight I will have some small exposure to both.
Patrick (-270) 9.1k vs Holtzman (+230) 7.1k
Patrick is an ok striker. He is a solid grappler and has good TD’s (4.69 per fight). Holtzman is a decent striker and has good leg kicks. The one thing I noticed in previous fights Holtzman tends to go to his back a lot. This makes Patrick an interesting tournament play. I love the upside he brings with TD’s and advances. I will also have some shares of Holtzman though. He is the higher output striker as long as he can keep the fight standing. Overall I think the best idea is to have some exposure to both with Patrick being my preferred play.
Most Fade Worthy Fights on Card
Ladd (-165) 8.2k vs Evinger (+145) 8k
This is 1 of those fights I could see getting exposure to if needing to fill that last roster spot. Ladd is the better grappler. I just don’t know if she can put Evinger away. More than likely I will just have a few shares of both.
Herrig (-120) 8.3k vs Waterson (+100) 7.9k
This fight has the highest odds to go to decision on the entire card (-400). Herrig will have the size and strength advantage in this fight. I really wish I could pick Waterson here but, I just think Herrig will be too much for her. I actually think this fight potentially is a better cash play.
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