The DFS n’ Donuts Shop

The modus operandi of the majority of my articles and podcasts is to deliver compelling evidence through analytics, trends, and useful data as to why a player or team is an ideal target to invest in. This article is slightly different than what you’ll see in most of my articles. In this weekly column, I will provide a light breakdown of the slate, give a brief overview of what Vegas has to say about the current week of games and highlight a few significant values on FanDuel and DraftKings based on some analytical data. This article is an early overview of the main slate and should be used as a building block and guideline to develop your strategies and start to envision possible paths to victory.

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Main Slate Game by Game Early Targets and Values on FanDuel and DraftKings

While using the NBA Research Station (one of our VIP tools), I compared each position and believe the following players have significant value on either FanDuel or DraftKings based on their price point on that site, recent trends, and or matchup.

LAL@PHO

The Lakers are allowing opponents to score 131.7 PPG while the Suns are giving up a hefty 114.0 PPG. Vegas has highlighted this fact with it’s massive 237.0 point total with the Lakers being slight road favorites by 2.0 points. It should be a competitive and extremely fast-paced game, full of turnovers, three-pointers, and tons of peripheral stats. It wouldn’t shock me one bit if a 4×4 game stack targeting this game wins a tournament or two on Wednesday.

There are many players to target from both teams but the first player I want to target is Lonzo Ball. The youngster played 32 minutes last game and rid the DFS community of any concern it might have had over his health. He finished with a 13.2% usage rate and still pumped out 33.50 FanDuel points. At just $6,300, he’s clearly in position to blow past his salary expectations and has a superb floor and ceiling combination. Kyle Kuzma played a massive 45 minutes in his first start of the season due to Brandon Ingram and Rajon Rondo missing the game because of their suspensions. Kuzma is in another great spot on Wednesday and likely will be the secondary scoring option after LeBron James. Kuzma finished with a 25.3% usage rate and went 15-of-25 from the floor. I think within the scope of how high-scoring this game could ultimately be that he’s under-priced. LeBron James  (who we have projected for the second highest score of the night at 55.1 FD points) and Josh Hart are both solid pieces to build around as well as they’re both locked into plenty of minutes and have exceptional matchups as well. Hart will continue to get massive run at the wing for the time being and he’s earning the right to keep it all season.

On the Suns there are three players I am targeting. I mostly want Deandre Ayton, who we have projected to score 37.1 points. He’s scored 45, 15, and 45 FanDuel points in the first three games of the year. You might look at the 15 point game and think to yourself he isn’t a good player because he’s too volatile at his mid-7k price tag, however, he had 5 fouls that game due to facing Nikola Jokic, who tormented the rookie, and only ended up playing 22 minutes. He’s solid at his price tag and if game stacking I need him. Devin Booker ($8,000) will forever be in play until his price is over $9,000 on FanDuel. He can score 55-60 FanDuel points on any given night and especially on a night like this where the score might be 125-120 by the end of regulation. Booker has a 34.6% usage rate and is absolutely going to carry this offense if the game stays close. I would venture to say if he isn’t hitting his shots or dominating the ball that the Lakers will run away with this one. He’s the key for Pheonix. Lastly, I like the idea of getting some salary relief and dropping down to Isaiah Canaan. He isn’t safe by any stretch but he will run mid-20’s minutes wise and could return 25-30 point value. He’s perfect for the “drop score” format of FanDuel.

Players to Target Elsewhere:

Kawhi Leonard – He’s under-priced for his role (31% usage rate or higher in 2-of-3 games) and will likely be guarded by a combination of Jimmy Butler and Andrew Wiggins. It doesn’t really matter at his $8,700 price tag and I love him tonight.

Draymond Green – He’s an absolute steal at $6,900 and he might end up as one of my highest owned players on the slate. The game total for the Wizards and Warriors is over 230 and the Warrios have a solid 121 point implied total.

Kevin Love – He’s the focal point of the offense and we have him projected to score 43.9 FanDuel points, the most at the power forward position. He screams value at just $8,500 when taking his ceiling into consideration.

Lamarcus Aldridge – Has been superb this season and it appears that for as long as a game will remain competitive that he’ll be a stud. He’s not priced as a stud across the industry and we need to take advantage of this for the time being. He’s facing off against the Pacers and the Spurs only have a 107.5 implied total which should keep his ownership down.

DeMar Derozan – Is not priced where he’s performing yet and I love going heavy handed with my exposure on players that are scoring at will and have massive usage rates. His price is too cheap, way too cheap. He’s had usage rates of 30.8%, 33.2%, and 33.6% over the first three games and put up 38, 48, and 66 FanDuel points. He’ll be one of my highest owned players tonight while the crowd focuses on more popular players and higher implied totals.

Jimmy Butler – He needs to be $9,500 on both sites but he’s not. For now, he’s insane value with a massive ceiling. In what should be a competitive game I can see Butler getting around 28-30% usage rate and we have him projected to score 40.7 FanDuel points, behing only Luka Doncic and James Harden at the shooting guard position.

Joel Embiid – He averages 1.47 FP/M without Ben Simmons in the lineup and should absolutely dominate the Bucks on the boards and down low. He’s on the second leg of a back to back but I am not concerned and he’s a slight discount from the superstar level but likely scores just as much if not more than they do tonight. The center position has some value tonight though so paying up for him will sacrifice a bit due to opportunity cost.

Gerald Green – He’s likely going to play in the low-mid 20’s minutes and is incredibly cheap across the industry. He can get hot in a hurry and without CP3 in the lineup, Harden will dominate the ball. However, when he’s off the court, players like Eric Gordon and Gerald Green will have their turn. Green is perfect for the “drop score” format on FanDuel.

Justin Holiday – He’s another value option that is superb for the “drop score” format and has turned in two solid games in a row. He’s locked into heavy minutes due to Kris Dunn and Denzel Valentine being on the shelf. He might finish with 36 or so minutes today and at just mid-4k price tag he’s fantastic within the Bulls 114.0 point implied total.

There are a dozen or so other great plays that will end up in my MME player pool today but you’ll have to be a part of the DFS Army if you want those options. There is also a members only podcast as well as two more articles coming out later today. I hope my morning article helped jump start you on the right path and I hope to chat with you later as a member!

 

 

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Fortune favors the bold, go make your own luck!
-Donuts