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DFS Golf: Fall Swing Favorites – The CJ Cup

The PGA Tour’s Fall Swing arrives in Jeju Island, South Korea for the CJ Cup and one of the biggest prize pools of the year!  Players will be playing for a share of 9 Million dollars on one the most beautiful, risk/reward courses in the world, Nine Bridges. 

My name is Josh Thomas, and I am a PGA Coach here at DFS Army as well as an NFL Contributor and I write the Chalk Donkey article weekly for our VIPs. I’m changing up the format a bit for the fall swing and providing you with my Fall Swing Favorites, which will be my favorite plays each week taking into account ownership, projections, and game theory.

The tour continues the Asia portion of the Fall swing with the second of three stops in the Far East. This week the tour heads to Nine Bridges for the CJ Cup but first lets recap what happened in Malaysia last week with the CIMB Classic.

Marc Leishman got off the snide last week with his first win since the 2017 FedEx Cup playoffs. Apparently Leish was so confident that he would win some where over here on the Asian swing that he booked his hotel and flight to Kapalua for the Tournament of Champions before he even left for the touranements! Talk about a baller move. He was steady all week and the putter really heated up for him on the weekend as he was able to almost run away and hide.

In a Matt Kuchar‘esque move, Justin Thomas hung around the top 20 all week before vaulting into a T5 finish with a great round on Sunday. If you read last weeks’ article hopefully you had lots of JT and moved up the leaderboard a bit on Sunday. Gary Woodland was in a tie for 1st heading into the final round but struggled to a one under 71 that dropped him back to 5th.

The fade of guys coming over from the Safeway Open, especially the chalkier ones, paid off in a big way. Of the top ten only 3 players were guys coming over from the Safeway and the chalky plays of Brandt Snedeker, Ryan Moore, and Sam Ryder all finished in the bottom 1/3 of the field.

It was a solid week for me on all sites and mostly because of the punt plays that I highlighted in last weeks article.

Deep GPP Punts:

I absolutely don’t think you need to go there but if you are looking for a super contrarian play and need some salary savings I think there are three really viable punts in this low priced range that I want to highlight.

Gaganjeet Bhullar, John Catlin, Justin Harding 

All three of these guys are Asian tour regulars who have great recent form coming into this event. Check out their last few events.

John Catlin was the best of the bunch with a T22 finish, and scored great from a fantasy perspective with a couple eagles and a ton of birdies. If he would have played even a smidge better in round one he would have been in the top 15 or better. Gaganjeet Bhullar had a nice final round and got himself into a T27 finish basically where he hovered all week. Justin Harding finished 43rd and was a little bit of a disappointment but still absolutely crushed value at the price.

In a no cut event, taking a shot on some of these guys so you can load up at the top is a viable strategy. In a cut event you need them to get through the cut to play the weekend but with everyone guaranteed four rounds it doesn’t take much for a guy priced at 6400 or worse to hit value, and if he plays decent he can absolute smash value like Bhullar and Catlin did last week. That being said, you don’t just want to throw a dart because it could pan out. All three of those guys had been having solid years, good form counts for a lot regardless of what tour you’re playing on.

With the CJ Cup this week we can employ that strategy again, though it seems that pricer on Draftkings is a little softer and the 7k range is stronger than it was last week so you might not need to punt as much. While I love the top of the board here, the 7k/8K range is stacked with a bunch of guys who could easily win this thing if they play well. In a no cut event we want to target guys who can make birdies and score from a fantasy perspective as this is a no cut event.

With the Massive Prize Pool this week we get an excellent field on a beautiful and challenging course, it should be a blast to watch. One thing to note is that since this is halfway around the world in South Korea, lock is EARLY, WEDNESDAY AT 5PM CST!  Thats even earlier than last week so be prepared! Let’s get to Course Breakdown and Key Stats.

Course Breakdown:

Another week another short par 72. Nine Bridges is the host of the CJ Cup and is located on Jehu Island in South Korea. The course measures 7184 yards and is played on bentgrass greens and fairways. Unlike last week though, this course played as the 4th hardest course on tour last year. (it’s first year hosting a PGA Tour event).

This course really perplexed me early in the week. I vaguely remembered this tournament playing difficult, but I don’t remember it playing as difficult as the research was showing me. If we look at the scorecard here, only three holes played under par, but then when i look at the stats for the tournament, players hit 72% of the fairways and 70% of the greens in regulation. Those things don’t mesh. if you are hitting that many fairways and greens the scores on these holes shouldn’t look like this.

Then I checked out the round by round scoring and found this.

These guys absolutely tore this course apart in round one and then fell apart in rounds 2-4. 50 guys shot under par in round 1 and only 47 total shot under par in rounds 2-4. There was more bogeys than birdies for the tournament, and that NEVER happens on the PGA tour. The scoring average in round 3 was almost 75…thats inane!

So what the heck happened? The wind picked up is the easy answer. After a relatively calm round one where players absolutely demolished the course, the winds picked up like and blew in rounds 2-4 with the calmest day having a 17 MPH wind. Yet, the players were still able to hit greens and fairways at an impressively high clip, and the scoring was atrocious, again doesn’t make sense. So I started to dig deeper and watch highlights from last year and what it looks like happened in rounds 2-4 is that  while players were still able to hit greens at a pretty high clip, the wind was causing them to miss in the wrong spots. The greens are big, but in kind of a crescent moon shape, and they are tiered. If your approach landed on the wrong tier, you were likely looking at a longer, downhill, downwind putt that was easy to fly right off the green. In fact this course had the highest percentage of three putts of any last year and lowest percentage of one putts.

Another contributing factor is the collection area around the greens and the thick rough just off the fringe. With the tiered greens if you just missed on the wrong side in the rough, you were faced with a difficult chip on a side hill or a downhill through thick rough, its almost an impossible shot to get close. Being underneath the hole will be vital for guys this eayr.

Lucky for us, it doesn’t look like the wind should be a factor this year according to weather forecasts at this point. Since Jehu Island is off the coast of South Korea and on the ocean, the weather/wind can change pretty quickly but right now it looks like we won’t have to to deal with that. Thursday is the only day with a chance of gusts up to 14 mph, other than that it should be fairly calm. Thats great in a sense that we can expect this course to benefit some of the scorers opposed to the grinders, but it also means that on a course we have very little info on since its only been in play one year, we now have to basically throw away any of the info from last year since it should play vastly different.

If we look at the course as a hole, I think it can be classified as a less than driver course you have wide fairways which should allow guys to get aggressive but its also a placement course in that you have to be on the right side of the fairway to attack some of these pins. There are some risk/reward features on this course where the longer hitters can look to carry some hazards to get in a better position, and the par 5’s are reachable unless you are really short.

Being able to get it close here is going to be vital, and targeting guys who have been gaining strokes for the season (unfortunately with no shot link data we have to go to the Safeway and before) might be key. Bogey avoidance and scrambling/SG: Around the green will be vital to look at as well.

I love this course and I encourage you to stay up and watch (and its not as late as last week) it’s a beautiful setting and with the strong field we should have an excellent tournament, and likely the best of the Fall swing to this point. I’m looking at a score of -15 to -16 for the winner, but if someone gets hot I don’t think -20 is out of the question.

Key Stats this Week:

In this section, I’ll cover what I feel are some of the key stats this week. We get lots of questions in slack about what to look for in the RS and here are some of the things that I’ll be focusing on this week for the CJ Cup.

One thing I like to look at first before we get into the key stats is the Results by Stokes Gained tab on the RS. Typically we look at the Averages by Finish tab as well. Unfortunately for us, its really difficult to look at historical data here because:

A) Theres no history here because this is the second time this course has hosted an event.

B) With the weather last year playing such a role, and it not looking like we will see similar weather, any of the data from last year can be kind of thrown out the window.

So…what do we look at?

Value Tab: 

Since we don’t really have any historical data, lets look at the Value tab in the RS. Who is popping as a value this week? This is pretty easy to find as the better the value, the darker the green box. The value tab looks at Vegas odds and our projections, versus the salary FanDuel or DraftKings have assigned to that player.

Gary Woodland leads the way here after a strong performance last week. His odds to win are strong, and his price is pretty cheap in comparison. I have some interest in Woodland, but he struggled a bit here last year and I’m not quite sure he’s going to make my player pool this week. He’s a fine player and if I was mme’n 150 lineups this week Id have some exposure but in a no cut event I’m cutting back on my volume, and even though he is cheap and a projected value he’s just not currently fitting in the type of build I’m making.

I feel similarly about Emiliano Grillo and Rafael Cabrera-Bello. I have more interest in Grillo, as Rafa’s recent form leaves something to be desired. He struggled to a T50 last week and really couldn’t find a green to save his life. If he does that this week he’s in big trouble.

Kyle Stanley and Si Woo Kim are two guys that I think can make a run at this thing. Stanley has been one of the most consistent players on tour recently racking up top 20 after top 20. (4 of his last 7) and had an excellent tournament last week finishing t13 on the back of a 66 and a 64 on the weekend. Similar story for Si Woo, while the form leading up to the event hasn’t been great, he also had a strong CIMB Classic and finished with a 66/65. Both players are excellent ball strikers and great scorers and if they can get the putter going a little, watch out.

Projected Course Score:

When we don’t know have a lot of data to go off of, projected course score is something that I focus on. Projected course score takes the sum of how many fantasy points players gain on each type of hole on the course. It’s a good way to find out who is a course fit here and statistically should have success.

Not surprising that Justin Thomas leads the way here, or that stat darling Joaquin Niemann shows up either. Both are lock and load plays for me this week. Marc Leishman was second here last year and its obviously a good course fit for him. Branden Grace hasn’t had a top ten since last May and is not a guy I’m interested in this week. Brooks Koepka has a real chance to contend here and I think if you making 2 lineups and start with one with JT and one with Brooks you’ll likely have a pretty profitable weekend.

Strokes Gained: Approach (Last 25 rounds)

Since we don’t have a ton of data on this course I want to target the one statistic that seems to be the most likely to identify a winner, SG: Approach. I want to look at the last 25 rounds because I think that takes out some of the variance in it and should give us a good idea who is been hitting the irons well the last few months. At this course with the tiered greens you want to pick golfers who are able to hit it tight or in the right area at least, and SG: App can help us do that.

Hideki is a player that identified early on that I want to target this week. His recent form is kind of insane. T4, 15, T4, T15 during the FedEx Cup playoffs. He now returns to the far east and while he didn’t play last year, this course should be a good fit for him. He struggles with the putter, but with approach stats like this it shouldn’t matter. As weird as it sounds, he would actually be better sometimes if he just missed the green as opposed to leaving himself a long putt, thats how good his around the green game is. I think with how difficult Deki and stud like JT or Brooks in the same lineup, he will come in underowned and you can start lineups with him and get some leverage on the field.

Another guy that I identified early in the week as someone I wanted to target if this looked like it was going to be a birdie fest was Billy Horschel. You thought that Deki’s run of good form was good? Billy’s been on a tear since the Wyndham Championship in August, not finishing below 11th place until last weeks CIMB Classic. I love this course for Horschel and think he has as good of a chance as any to win this thing.

Other key stats to consider this week, that I’ll get into in my breakdown of the field:

SG: Off the Tee, Double Bogey or worse %, Birdies Gained, Greens in Regulation %, and Medium Par 4 Scoring 

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Fall Swing Favorites:

Typically, each week I write a chalk donkey article, breaking down who the chalk is and where you can pivot, but through the fall swing I’m going to be trying out a new format where I give you my three favorite plays in each tier as well as the other players I’m considering and those I’m fading. Chalk in the fall swing almost always has to be eaten due to the fields being not as strong as a normal tour event. I’ll also include my projection of the three highest owned players in each tier, along with my full player pool at the end.

Tiers: 

I utilize Draftking pricing, but these are applicable to any site usually.

High: Salary of 9K and UP

Mid: Salary of 7.5K – 9K

Low: Below 7K

High:

There are a ton of great options here this week and I have interest in most. We know that Justin Thomas and Brooks Koepka are almost locks to start your lineup with and as such will likely be highly owned. I’m not too concerned about ownership this week as it will be pretty spread out, so I’m going to highlight a player that I’m really high on this week that might be overlooked.

Billy Horschel: DK $9700/FD $10300

As I stated above, Billy Ho is a guy I identified early as someone to target this week based on his ball striking ability and his birdie making capabilities.

Billy’s adjusted strokes gained stats are excellent and it looks like Bentgrass is one of his better putting surfaces. Adjusted Field Rank shows how often he beats this type of field and takes into account recent form etc. Over his last 15 (when’ he’s been crazy hot) he has a 75% adjusted field rank, thats 7th best in the field. And 88% in No-Cut events which is 2nd overall. His hard course score isn’t great, but I don’t know that I believe this is actually a hard course if the weather isn’t a factor

I don’t love the price on Billy Ho here, I think that actually is a benefit as it should drive down his ownership. Making lineups with Hideki and Billy Ho leave you about $7400 for the rest of your lineup and with the strength of the 7K range you can build really solid lineup.

I love the recent form here and the ball striking (I also love that its a no cut so if he has a bit of blow up he’s not dead) . and I’ll be riding the hot hand with Billy this week in quite a few lineups.

Other options in this tier: 

Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, Hideki Matsuyama (I think starting lineups with Deki is a great way to be contrarian), Paul Casey, Tyrell Hatton, Cameron Smith

Fades in this tier: 

Jason Day, Marc Leishman, Adam Scott 

Projected Chalk (highly owned): Hideki Matsuyama, Gary Woodland, Justin Thomas 

Mid:

You guys know I’m hitting the lock button Sungjae Im, so here’s a guy that is a great value this week and I think actually has some win equity.

Charles Howell III: DK $7700/FD $9400

When I think of CH3 I always think of “West Coast Swing” but I might start thinking ‘Far East Swing’ too. Charles Howell III has been a stud in Asia over the last  couple years and coming off a t5 finish last week at the CIMB Classic, I’m going to go right back to the well with him this week.

Fairways and Greens, that’s Chucky 3 sticks game and should suit him well here. But recently he has also been filling up the cup with birdies. A 63 at the BMW Championship, a 65 at the CIMB Classic, and 9 of his last 12 rounds in the 60’s (including 7 of his last 8).

Around the Green is always suspect with Howell, but at this price, I’m not super concerned. At this price he doesn’t have to win, he just needs to finish in the top half of the field, and I think thats easily within reach for him. If his putter gets going and he gets hot again, he could top ten or contend for a win. He’s not going to hurt you (one of the best double bogey or worse % in the field) and while typically his upside seems capped and we look at him as a ‘cash game’ or ‘safety’ type player, his recent form doesn’t necessarily agree. He’s been a stud gaining fantasy points and I expect that to continue here this week at a course he’s already comfortable at.

Other options in this tier: 

Alexander Noren (Love him this week and will likely go overlooked), Lockjae Im, Byeong Hun An, Kyle Stanley, Abraham Ancer, Ian Poulter, Joaquin Niemann

Fades in this tier: 

Ryan Moore, Brandt Snedeker, Branden Grace, Emiliano Grillo, Chesson Hadley 

Projected Chalk (highly owned): Sungjae Im, Byeong Hun An, Kyle Stanley 

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Low:

Brian Harman: DK $7000/FD $9300

Brian Harman is about the least sexy pick there is, but at his price and given his history in this part of the world (and this course), I love loading up on him to make those stars and scrubs lineups work. Harman is a guy who is a course horse. He plays well at certain courses year after year. And while we only have one year of history here, I’m willing to take a chance on the lefty at a course he finished T5 at previously.

His recent form has just been ‘meh’ but he has shown some signs of life recently starting out under par in round 1 in his last two events before struggling in rds 2-4. My hope is that the return to a course he’s had success will change the mindset for him this week and he will be able to maintain some momentum in rds 2-4.

The big positive for Harman here is that there are 5 medium par 4’s and he is second in the field in medium par 4 scoring. That should benefit him this week. There’s no real slam dunks here just a lot of players that ‘look good’ and you need to mix and match them depending on the type of lineups you build. Harman is a guy I’m willing to take a chance on this week at this price. If he’s not comfortable for you, you could switch to Chez Reavie who may be a little safer or Joel Dahmen who I don’t love this week but is viable

UPDATE: I’m less on Harman than I originally thought I would be. The form is pretty poor. Still worth a shot in GPP if you believe in course history/course fit like I do. I have about 20% in a 20 max.

Other options in this tier: 

Si Woo Kim, Kevin Tway, Austin Cook, Kevin Chappell, Adam Hadwin, Charley Hoffman (perpetually underpiced on DK), Chez Reavie, Nick Watney, Jimmy Walker (I don’t love him, but he really got it together on the weekend at CIMB and could keep that rolling here), Brian Stuard, 

Fades in this tier: 

Shubhankar Sharma, Stewart Cink, Pat Perez, Joel Dahmen, Scott Piercy, J.J. Spaun, Andrew Putnam 

Projected Chalk (highly owned): Kevin Chappell, Austin Cook, Joel Dahmen

Player Pool:

Here is my projected player pool for the week for GPP. I try to keep it somewhat tight 25-30 unless I’m putting in 150 lineups, then I’ll expand it. Again, pricing/pool is for Draftkings.

10K: Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, Hideki Matsuyama

9K: Paul Casey, Billy Horschel, Tyrell Hatton, Cam Smith 

8K: Ben An, Alexander Noren, Sungjae Im, 

7K: Charles Howell, Si Woo Kim,  Austin Cook, Abraham Ancer, Ian Poulter, Kevin Tway, Kevin Chappell, Brian Harman, Chez Reavie, Charley Hoffman, Adam Hadwin 

6K: Nick Watney, Jaime Lovemark, Jimmy Walker, Brian Stuard, 

Note: I don’t know that you really need to go down into the 6K range this week unless you are trying to get two high priced studs in your lineup. The 7k range has way more options this week than last week which is nice. I’m going to have a pretty even mix of Balanced/Stars and Scrubs lineups this week.

Final Thoughts: 

Another week with a no cut event, and another warning to be smart with your bankroll. I’m avoiding cash games entirely and just throwing a few GPP lineups in again this week. Cash is too volatile in these no cut events. Triple/Quintuple ups are viable though if you feel like you need a little more safety.

As ownership trends start to finalize I’ll update this article with the projected chalk. I’ll post some updates in my coaching channel and make sure to join in and ask any questions. I love weeks where I can watch a little golf before bed, go to sleep, wake up and see how my teams did.  REMEMBER LOCK IS EARLY THIS WEEK! 5 PM CST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT! 

Join us in our coaching channels this week and lets win some money! I’ll be there off and on all week and ready to help you before lock on Wednesday!

Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to this weeks event!