AFriedman15 – Aaron Friedman researches and writes college football articles for DFS Army. Aaron is a lifelong resident of the Chicago suburbs and a Northwestern alum and football season ticket holder. College football was Aaron’s first DFS sport and he was thrilled to see it return in 2018. He believes that the thrill, pageantry, and the importance of every game are unparalleled in sports. Aaron enjoys betting on the games and watching everything from #Pac12AfterDark to #MACtion, and especially enjoys the Tuesday-Friday games with so much happening on Saturdays. In real life, Aaron is an IT analyst and with his wife, is the parent to three small dogs. Find Aaron on Twitter at @AFriedmanDFS.
Slate Overview:
Here are some notes on the Saturday evening slates. There are 7 games on DraftKings and 11 games on FanDuel starting at 7pm ET, and I will try to indicate the FD only plays throughout this article. Hope everyone has a great Saturday watching college football and may your screens be green!
QB
On DK, some of the best QBs in the game are on the late slate: West Virginia QB Will Grier (11200 DK/10300 FD), Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa (10800 DK/10200 FD) and Ole Miss QB Jordan Ta’amu (9900 DK/9800 FD). Unlike the other two, Ta’amu has no shot at the Heisman, but he has a great matchup in what should be a back-and-forth game and he should go under owned compared to the more famous duo in his pricing tier. They are all fine plays, but in GPP I am trying to focus on the mid-lower tier (thought I do like Ta’amu and Storey in a game stack). In cash, I like mixing one of the top tier with one of the lower tier below.
I really like the mid-range in the late slate for both sites. Elliott, Storey, and Perry are in play for both sites. Michigan QB Shea Patterson (5400 DK/7900 FD) is heavily discounted on DK, where he has been at $8,000 at various points throughout the season. Patterson has been very uneven, but he has to deliver at some point. And I think Wisconsin’s defense is not nearly as good as what’s perceived (they are actually #55 in defense S&P), or as good as in past years.
Quarterback is very interesting on the slate, as some significant value has opened up. BYU QB Zach Wilson (5000 FD Late/After hours) will make his first career start, after playing some garbage time last week. Wilson is a true freshman, and it was garbage time, but I still like what I saw out of him.
“He has done a good job when he has gotten the chance to be in there,” said quarterbacks coach and passing game coordinator Aaron Roderick, who spoke to reporters [about Zach Wilson]. “And it was definitely a low pressure situation, for sure. But he did a good job. He has done a good job in practices this week preparing. He has always been ready to play. He’s a hard worker.”
There are a few options in the 7,000s on FanDuel. UNC QB Nathan Elliott (5200 DK/7000 FD) will reclaim the starting spot with Chazz Surratt out for the season. The Tar Heels (ITT of 26) go up against a young Virginia Tech defense that has allowed nearly 300 yards per game.
Slightly safer yet, is Arkansas QB Ty Storey (6700 DK/7500 FD) going up against an Ole Miss defense that is allowing 307.8 yards per game through the air. Arkansas has a ITT of 30.25 in a game with a 67.5 O/U.
The options in the 7k’s do not end their either with Miami QB N’kosi Perry (7000 DK/7700 FD), who had an impressive outing last week. Perry has more upside, but I do not think his matchip is as good as Storey or Elliott.
Iowa State QB Brock Purdy (5700 DK/8700 FD) is an interesting GPP only flyer. I expect the Cyclones to be very competitive with West Virginia, but last week was his first action for the true freshman, and West Virginia hasn’t really given up a big game to any opposing QB this year. I don’t really want to play yesterday fantasy sports (YFS) too much but I do want a share.
After Hours: My favorite combination right now is Rypien/Wilson. DK afterhours slate has not been posted yet at the time of this writing. I hope people jump on Montez on FD (and presumably DK), but USC’s defense is solid, Boise has a nearly 40 ITT, and you get the discount with Rypien.
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RB
My favorite running back on the evening slate is Ole Miss RB Scottie Phillips (7300 DK/ 9600 FD). No thanks on Jonathan Taylor going up against future pros and the Wolverines, whom are the #2 defensive S&P unit. Next I would take Cal RB Patrick Laird (8000 DK/9200 FD) as UCLA is allowing 3.6 rushing touchdowns per game! Laird is also leading Cal in targets and receptions. I am borderline pressing the lock button on these two, as there are so many timeshares on the slate. At his price, I am willing to take a shot on Michigan RB/touchdown vulture Ben Mason (3400 DK). In general, I feel like the Late and After Hours slates have more value at WR, so I am willing to pay premium for RB and spend down at WR.
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Afterhours: Not great options but I’d probably start with Evans (9300 FD) and McMillan (8700 FD) who has taken over a vast majority of the carries.
WR
At the top, I like Alabama WR Jerry Jeudy (7500 DK/9500 FD) and then Ole Miss WR AJ Brown (9100 DK/8800 FD).
In the mid-tier, I like two receivers for Miami WR Lawrence Cager (5100 DK/8400 FD) and TE Brevin Jordan (4800 DK/7500 FD) and as a tertiary mid-tier GPP play, I like UNC WR Anthony Ratliff-Williams 5200 DK/7700 FD)
Some significant value has opened up with the news that Mizzou WR Nate Brown is ruled out, in addition to Emanuel Hall already being out. Even though it is Alabama, my favorite value play of the evening slate is Missouri TE Albert Okwuegbunam (3800 DK/7000 FD) who leads Missouri in targets and catches. Missouri True freshman WR Jalen Knox (3700 DK/7000 FD) will also start and see an expanded role, with the two receivers out for the Bama game.
Another value piece I like is BYU TE Matt Bushman (6600 FD) to go with Wilson at QB.
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