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College Football DFS Friday Night Slate (October 12, 2018)

AFriedman15 – Aaron Friedman researches and writes college football articles for DFS Army. Aaron is a lifelong resident of the Chicago suburbs and a Northwestern alum and football season ticket holder. College football was Aaron’s first DFS sport and he was thrilled to see it return in 2018. He believes that the thrill, pageantry, and the importance of every game are unparalleled in sports. Aaron enjoys betting on the games and watching everything from #Pac12AfterDark to #MACtion, and especially enjoys the Tuesday-Friday games with so much happening on Saturdays. In real life, Aaron is an IT analyst and with his wife, is the parent to three small dogs. Find Aaron on Twitter at @AFriedmanDFS.

 

Slate Overview:

This Friday, we are back at it with a three-game slate:

South Florida (-7,  O/U 61.5) at Tulsa , 7pm ET

Air Force at San Diego State (-11, O/U 43.5), 9pm ET

Arizona at Utah (-13, O/U 51.5), 10pm ET

 

Team Spread ITT Time(ET) and TV
South Florida @ -7 34.25           7pm ESPN
Tulsa +7 27.25
Air Force @ +11 16.25           9pm CBSSN
San Diego St. -11 27.25
Arizona @ +13 19.25            10pm ESPN
Utah -13 32.25

 

QB

South Florida QB Blake Barnett (8400 DK/9200 FD) is my top QB play. Barnett has been a well-traveled QB, having started his career at Alabama before transferring to Arizona State, and now to USF as a grad transfer. He has found a home with the quietly undefeated Bulls, averaging  8 yards per pass attempt and has 9 passing TDs to go along with 4 on the ground. Tulsa has been fairly respectable on pass defense, but to me, Barnett is the surest at QB on this slate, which is saying a lot since…

The slate also has Arizona QB Khalil Tate (7700 DK/ 9300 FD), who was one of the top dual-threat QBs in the country last year, but has completely turned into a pocket passer this season.  This year, Tate is throwing roughly four passes to everyone rush attempt; last year the ratio was even. Tate has been a mediocre pocket passer –In his defense, Tate is likely hurt (ankle) and coach Sumlin has even considered sitting him out to rest his ankle– and could completing just 54% of his passes. Last year, Tate was an absolute stud on the ground, averaging 9.2 yards per carry and  this year it is down to just 2.5. With the combination of Tate’s injury, the new offense, Utah’s defense, and wanting to spend up at RB, I am not very high on him to say the least.

I do want a healthy amount of Utah QB Tyler Huntley (8800 DK/8800 FD), my 2nd favorite QB on the slate, but I don’t love his price and he doesn’t feel as safe as Barnett. Huntley has been under 200 yards passing in his first three Pac12 games, but this is a great matchup for the Utes dual-threat QB and the fact that Arizona has allowed big games to other dual-threat QBs (Houston’s D’Eriq King and last week to Cal’s Brandon McIlwain) has me intrigued.

On the lower tier, Tulsa QB Seth Boomer (6500 DK/7600 FD) could improve now that he has a spot start under his belt, but I like Air Force  QB Donald Hammond III (5500 DK/7800 FD) who is now the unquestioned starter for the Falcons and has provided some balance to their offense.

As I approach this slate, I will likely mix and match between Barnett, Hammond, and Huntley.

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RB

Running back is a little unfortunate this week given that the two top RBs both went ham last week and have been priced up accordingly.

South Florida RB Jordan Cronkrite (9600 DK/10300 FD) went for 302 rushing yards last week vs. UMass, but he is not just a one-week wonder, with scoring 22+  DKFP in his two previous games as well. Cronkite gets a great matchup vs. Tulsa who is 19th worst in FBS on rush defense, allowing 209.2 rush yards and two rushing touchdowns per game.

Utah RB  Zack Moss (9200 DK/9800 FD) has been a workhorse for the Utes, going for 20 attempts, 160 yards, and two TDs in last week’s nice win at Stanford, and 30 for 106 against Washington State the week before.  Arizona’s has problems against the run, allowing an average of 197.3 rush yards per game. Great spot for Moss.

San Diego State RB Chase Jasmin  (8000 DK/9100 FD) is meh. I find myself wanting the extra salary for Cronkrite or Mass.

Tulsa’s RB situation deserves careful monitoring as both Corey Taylor II (6000 DK) and Shamari Brooks (5800 DK) who was a late scratch las week are both day-to-day, and could provide some much needed salary relief on DK. Fortunately for DFS players, this is the first game of the slate so we should get news.

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Air Force’s RB crew of  Cole Fagan (3600 DK) and Kadin Remsberg (4900 DK) is potentially interesting as DK flex options. In last week’s game, Hammond had 19 rush attempts, 12 for Remsberg, and 10 for Fagan, and I am hoping that Air Force will want to follow the same game plan which led to their best game of the season.

WR

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Fortunately, with the RBs as big spend ups, there is not a bevy of WRs to spend up on. If you have the budget,  electric Utah WR Britain Covey (6400 DK/8000 FD) is always in play for me, especially on DK, where he is a PPR god and I like him more than usual on FD this week as he is still waiting for his first TD of the season, which could come via Huntley or on a jet sweep.

South Florida WRs Tyre McCants (5900 DK/8400 FD) and Randall St. Felix (5400 DK/ 6500 FD) have received essentially the same number of targets, both averaging a consistent 7 targets per game.

Tulsa receiver Justin Hobbs (5600 DK/7900 FD) has come on strong of late, had had 10 targets last week with Boomer, although only reeled in four catches. The previous week, Hobbs went for 9 catches and 78 yards

Beneath that, the receiver pool gets pretty gross. I am not confident in Arizona against Utah’s robust defense.

From there, my next team of interest is actually Air Force, believe it or not. I believe that  Hammond brings some balance to the Falcons and top receiver Ronald Cleveland (3600 DK) is an OK punt.

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