Game 4 is do or die for the Yankees tonight. Here I will break down this game and what I like for the single-game slate!
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Red Sox @ Yankees Game 4 of the ALDS
Welcome to Playoff Baseball! The atmosphere is electric and October is where the magic happens! Below is the breakdown of Red Sox @ Yankees game tonight!
We nearly have a pick ’em game tonight with a total of 9 right now. I believe the total will start to go up as the day goes on, but for now, it does seem a tad low. If you want to talk about the betting lines, this is the PERFECT time to join the DFS Army’s Beat the Bookie! For just $29.99/month you can get all our experts models, articles, and plays each day! Sign up and get all the goodness HERE!
PITCHING
Rick Porcello: Porcello is hard to trust. He’s either really good or really bad and has been that way all season. The Yankees lineup actually has a good xwOBA against RHP but there are definitely strikeouts to be had. Their projected lineup has a 23.17% strikeout rate in the last 2 weeks vs RHP. Porcello has been “meh” in advanced stats in the last 45 days. He’s allowed a .329 xwOBA which isn’t horrible, but lefties have a .399 xwOBA against him in that span. The Yankees will likely have only 2 lefties in the lineup though which could hurt them a bit. Porcello hasn’t had the best postseason experience with a 5.33 ERA over 25.1 innings, allowing 30 hits and 15 ER. He is about at a strikeout per inning and with the Yankees free-swingers he can get some extra points tonight. His one start in Yankee Stadium this year he allowed 5 runs in 5.1 innings while only striking out 3. In his home starts, he was really good against them. This is obviously only a DraftKings play because pitchers are not in play on fanduel. I don’t hate using him, but I do think he is a bit risky.
C.C. Sabathia: The Sox are hot, we all know that. They were the best team in the regular season and have tons of history against CC. Sabathia hasn’t pitched since September 27th so he is plenty rested for this one. He had 1 good start against them at home this year and one bad one, but he definitely has the postseason experience. He’s pitched 126.1 innings in the postseason in his career and was good in his 2 starts last season against Houston. He had struggled against Boston when he faced them in 2007, but he has changed a lot from them. For the Yankees, this is the guy who I want to start today. The Sox have a ton of history against CC too and this sets up for a solid game. I am a tad worried about Angel Hernandez being behind the plate because he’s been HORRIBLE this series and I’m not sure if Hernandez remembers but CC had said to him “Don’t f****** talk to me, call f****** strikes”.
BULLPENS
Red Sox: I’m not as familiar with the Sox pen as I am with the Yankees, but if Porcello struggles early, I can see them moving to Joe Kelly to get 2-3 innings of work early. He last pitched 3 days ago and I can see them moving to him in this game. If they have the lead late, obviously Craig Kimbrel will be in play, but it’s a risk because we never know what is going to happen in baseball. The rest I’m not sure about for the Sox tonight. These two seem to be the safest to get some work in tonight. In showdown, if I wanted to use a reliever I would take the risk on Kelly.
Yankees: A few things I think may happen tonight for the Yankees. If CC struggles, I think they use Happ as the first guy out of the bullpen. They could have chosen to start him tonight, but I think it was smart not to. He will be able to warm up quicker out of the bullpen if needed, unlike CC. It was actually a smart move from Boone for once. The Yankees will need good pitching tonight and if CC is in trouble early, they could lean to Happ, David Robertson, Betances, Britton, and Chapman. All of course are risky in the showdown slate, but if one comes in and goes 1-2 innings with a few K’s it could push you forward.
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BATS
Red Sox
Though CC doesn’t get hit that hard, he still has had tendencies to get hit around with weak hits. He’s been great at home all season but can struggle against RHH which the Sox will have a ton of. Steve Pearce is one of my top guys here against CC. He’s a lefty masher and has amazing success against him. He has hit 3 HR off Sabathia with 3 doubles too. He does have a .355 xwOBA against LHP of late witha .231 ISO.
Mookie Betts is my next target. He’s on fire lately and always a SB threat. Over the last 2 weeks vs LHP, he has a .526 xwOBA with a .444 ISO. He too has been good against CC, but no HR. Xander has been able to crush lefties this season too and has the 3rd highest xwOBA on the Sox projected starting lineup at .472.
Eduardo Nunez is a cheap guy who can grind out at-bats and get on base too who is cheap on this showdown/one-game slate along with Ian Kinsler.
Red Sox bats in order of preference: Betts, Pearce, Bogaerts, Kinsler, Nunez
Yankees
Porcello has had his moments of greatness this season, but he also has struggled at times. Being a Yankee fan, I do hope this is one of his bad starts but it’s always hard to tell. Like I said earlier, he has nearly a .400 xwOBA to LHH, so those are going to be my main guys for the Yankees tonight.
Didi Gregorius has been getting on base lately even though his xwOBA is way off from is actual wOBA. He isn’t striking out much (12.2%) and has a .450 ISO to RHP.
Brett Gardner or Aaron Hicks are my next two I like. I’m not sure who will get the start tonight, but if Hicks is healthy I assume it will be him. **EDITED** BOTH ARE IN THE STARTING LINEUP AND I LIKE USING BOTH OF THEM TONIGHT!!!
It’s something to note that each of these 3 lefties has 2 home runs against Porcello in their career despite below average batting averages.
Neil Walker is now in the lineup tonight and is a great value play batting 6th for the Yankees. I like using all 4 lefties in the lineup in some of your tournament lineups tonight too.
Aaron Judge is getting a bit unlucky with a .238 wOBA and a .371 xwOBA. The Yankees really need him to show up tonight. He’s expensive on the showdown, but he along with Stanton have power upside whenever they play.
Yankees bats in order of preference: Didi, Gardner, Hicks, Walker, Judge, Stanton