Welcome to the first edition of the Barn Burner NHL DFS article and welcome to a new NHL season. Since these articles are cash game focused, I will only post on slates of 5 games or over. I don’t recommend cash games on slates of 4 games or under however I would focus more on single entries but because its opening night I just couldn’t help it! Also, we will have a betting model in place for this season and parts of my article will focus on finding an edge between the model and Vegas. If you are interested in our betting models just send me a quick DM and ill provide more information or visit out Beat the Bookie webpage. Expect shorter articles in the future but in the meanwhile. I suggest you invest the time in reading the whole article since I will be sharing my player’s selection process.
Our slack channel was very busy the last couple of days and I want to sum up some of the important information that was shared. We need to make sure to always be up to speed with the team lines, changes and goalie confirmations. It’s not as bad as the MLB or NBA but we can expect players moving from line to line early in the season. By week 2 I can practically name you all 100+ lines in the NHL and trust me when I see a 4th liner going from the 4th line to the 1st line I’ll be screaming his name all day.
How can you keep track of lines confirmations and change? It’s simple.
1. Follow my Twitter NHL Beat write list (https://twitter.com/AnthonyP_PMI/lists/dfs-army-nhl-beat-writers)
2. Our research station will update a player’s line and power play
3. Goalie confirmations can be found at www.leftwinglock.com. If you are on the go I recommend you follow them on Twitter. They will tweet the goalie confirmation the minute it’s available.
4. Other sources for line confirmations: www.leftwinglock.com, https://rotogrinders.com/lineups/nhl?site=draftkings, https://www.fantasylabs.com/nhl/lines/.
How much attention do I put on Vegas’s money lines and totals? Many ask this question on daily basis. Some players will say they solely rely on Vegas numbers, others will say that they NEVER look at them. I honestly don’t understand those that don’t look at the Vegas numbers. You don’t need to agree with them however Vegas numbers will help you by giving you an idea of which teams will be chalky, where the predicted scoring will come from and will help you with your game theory for that specific slate. Our NHL betting model highlights gaps between our projections and Vegas and helps to identify GPP opportunities. For example; initial data from the betting model is showing that the Calgary/Vancouver game has a xO/U (expected over under) of 6.4. This is a full goal over the Vegas total.
Alright, let’s get started.
Goalies: My research always starts with my goalie. Many use the approach of selecting the biggest favorite night overnight but is this the right approach? I would say it’s a start, but we shouldn’t base ourselves only on the biggest money line. I will make a list of up to 6 goalies and I will use the research station to narrow it down. What I am looking for is for a goalie that will make a ton of saves. All I want is a ton of saves. If the goalie is a huge favorite and is expected to see lots of shots he’s a lock for me. I will also look at expected ownership. A chalky goalie on a 4-game slate is much more important than on a 12-game slate. Andersen is expected to be uber chalk tonight and for a good reason. The Leafs are a HUGE -220 favorite vs my poor Habs. There is a lot of hype on the Leafs tonight. A LOT! Andersen is one of my 3 goalies that made my short list. The other 2 are Jones and Smith. Our research station has Andersen projected #1 goalie on both sites followed by Holtby and Jones. Holtby is a full fade for me, I have no trust in his abilities. So, going back to the Goalie selection, Andersen is expected to see over 32 SOG and I agree with that for the only simple fact that their defense SUCKS. The Habs are bad, the Habs won’t win, the Habs will allow a couple of PP goals but the Habs will have their share of SOG. On the other hand, I expect less SOG on Jones, however, I also expect he will allow fewer goals then Andersen hence being very close in projected FPTS. Smith might be chalkier then expected on DK tonight since people are always looking for cheap goalies however our NHL betting model expect a higher than usual scoring game and he’s my last option in the case that value on offense is really bad and I would need to pay up.
Goalies:
#1 Jones
#2 Andersen
#3 Smith
On a 4-game slate, I will usually stack vs building a conventional diversified cash line up. On offense, we are expecting the Leafs to lead the bulk of ownership with their massive 3.6 ITT, followed by San Jose and in a sneaking spot we have the BOS1 with the highest xFPTS for under 20k. The NHL betting model expects a high scoring game between the Flames and Canucks.
The next step in my process is to find a list of value plays. Value plays consist of cheap guys playing on the first 2 lines and have power play exposure. At times these plays are obvious and become locks. Example when Mittelstadt was promoted from 3rd to 1st line with Eichel. He was also playing on the power play. He was at the minimum price. As of 10:30 am this morning this is my list of value plays:
Kotkaniemi (MTL – and only available on DK for 2.5k) He was the talk of Habs preseason champ. Scored 1 goal and 2 assists in 6 games. He’s known for his vision and hockey sense. He played very well and forced the Habs to keep him for the season opener. He will be playing with Drouin on MTL2 and he will have some PP2 ice time. He’s a set-up man and plays well with Drouin. Hitting value with him shouldn’t be a problem tonight.
Connolly (WSH – 3.5k on both sites) He spent most of his time with Burakovksy and Eller last season and he really helped Eller shine throughout the season. Due to his defensive awareness, he was able to relief Eller of some of his defensive responsibilities which gave him the ability to crash the net and create scoring chances. Connolly hasn’t don’t much when he had the opportunity to play alongside of Ove and Kuz however whoever playing next to both of them always offers value. We don’t have him projected to play on any of the power plays, therefore, he gets a little downgrade for me but as mentioned he’s solid value that gives you exposure to Ove and Kuz.
Donato (BOS 3.7k on FD) I prefer Donato on FD since he’s 1k cheaper then DK. Our research station has the Bruins with a team implied PP goal chance of 80% which is the second highest on tonight’s slate being Toronto. Donato will be playing on BOS3 with Backes and on the PP2 but my only concern here is that if he faces Eller’s line he might have a hard time.
Grzelcyk (cheap on both sites) With Krug out who gets the top spot on PP1? I was honestly hoping for Vaakaneinen at the minimum price, but it looks like it’s going to be Grzelcyk. He’s way too cheap, with huge upside and he’ll have no problem hitting value.
TOP Value plays:
#1 Gzelcyk
#2 Kotkaniemi
For updates on value plays please visit the NHL #news-and-notes channel. Around 4 pm I will update if necessary.
So how do we approach this slate? Where do I start? Who do I stack? Who do I fade? I’ve already shared my thoughts on this in our #NHL-talk slack channel but I’m sure many didn’t get the chance to see it. I WANT MAX EXPOSURE ON TORONTO but the way to do it is not by stacking a full line. For anyone that follows hockey, the Habs have one of the worst penalty killings in the league while the Leafs have a lethal power play. With a huge 3.7 ITT, I want to focus on the Leafs PP and get the max exposure from all 3 5v5 lines. Let’s start by plugging in Jones, Kotkaniemi, Grzelcyk in our lineups and with that in mind let’s take a look at all viable centers on tonight’s slate:
Kadri (TOR – 5.1k on DK): Focus will be on Matthews and Tavares. Kadri is cheap and playing on the TOR3 and PP1 giving us exposure on the PP1. Kadri’s line is very capable of putting up points and Habs checking line (Plekaneks line) will have their hands full with one of the top 2 lines. Kadri is elite value tonight.
Matthews: (TOR 7k on DK) I expect MTL checking line to be on Matthew’s line and this doesn’t concern me at all. As per http://shiftchart.com/, we can clearly see that it’s the preferred matchup for the Habs home and away. Matthews hasn’t had issues scoring while Pleky if is covering him. I prefer Matthews over Tavares tonight for the simple reason that Matthews is a shooter on the PP while Tavares is parked in front of the net. While with the Islanders, the strategy was “hit the net and Tavares will put it in” In Toronto, we can expect the same however with snipers like Matthews and Marner those shots will be going in more often than not.
Kuznetsov: (WSH 6.4k on DK) I like him on both sites and I like him over Ove. His consistency rating is stronger than Ove and most even believe that OVE tends to explode more than Kuz. Well, you are WRONG. Last 20 games Kuz surpasses OVE in the % of times he hit over 5 to 30+ FD pts. This is not the case of “if you can’t get to Ove than Kuz Is a good option” This is a case of Kuz over OVE for me tonight.
Other notes: Backlund was in play until BTK was ruled out for tonight’s game while Getzlaf is dirt cheap on DK but I don’t believe there will be much offensive production from the Ducks tonight.
TOP Centers plays:
Top tier
Matthews
Kuznetsov
Value:
Kadri
Kotkaniemi
On the wings, we already covered Connolly and Donato as value plays. I want to continue my exposure on the Leafs PP1 unit and my top winger will be from the Leafs.
Marner (TOR 6k on DK) This will complete my Toronto1-2-3 5v5 exposure + all on the PP approach for tonight’s slate. I suspect many will have a Matthews + Tavares combo and Kadri/Marner might be a little less owned. Marner gives us exposure to Tavares and completes our Leafs exposure. I think 6k is cheap for this type of player who crashes the net and creates a ton of scoring chances. Marner and Matthews will be the shooters on the power play.
Pastrnak (BOS 6.2k on DK) I have BOS1 projected to score 47 FD FPTS and they cost under 20k. Bergeron is back and it’s a huge boost for him. Pasta is a natural goal scorer and set up man on the power play. I don’t anticipate an easy game vs the defending Stanley cup winner, however, Holtby is in goal and I have zero trusts in his abilities. Based on our player implied scoring chances Pasta is at the top of the list for the Bruins with a 40% chance of scoring.
Gallagher and Kane: Both take a ton of shots on goal and have high floors. Both also can score goals and in the case of Gallagher, he’s the only one that can regularly score for the Habs. The Leafs defense is suspect, Gallagher is constantly around the net and takes shots from everywhere. He’s very cheap for what he can bring, and we are almost guaranteed 2x return. With all the hype on Burns and Karlsson, many will forget about Kane. Well, I haven’t. At a similar consistency rating then Burns and Pavelski, Kane is cheaper and provides a higher floor based on SOG. He will play on SJ1 and PP1 which will give us access to Pavelski, Bruns and potentially Karlsson. At 6.1k he becomes a priority to fit him in my line up.
TOP winger plays:
Top tier
#1 Marner
#2 Kane
#3 Pasta
#4 Gally
Value:
Connolly
Donato
Ok, let’s finish this off for the defensive core. Some will ask why you don’t have Rielly in your list and I’ll answer because he’s too expensive. He’s for sure in play but just too expensive. I prefer a Kane or Gally at that price range. Keep in mind I’m already on Kadri-Matthew-Marner and feel pretty good about my Leafs exposure.
With Grzelcyk already plugged in, I have 2 defensemen on my short list.
Edler (Van 5.2K on DK) and Giordano (CGY 5.4k on DK) I like them on both sites. Edler is actually less expensive on FD. I have GIO and Edler #4 and #5 D’s behind the top 3 (Burns-Carlson-Karlsson) They both provide you a solid SOG +BS floor. With Hamilton gone Gio is the DON of that blue line and he will have a ton of ice time which gives him a boost vs last year.
TOP Defense plays:
Top tier
#1 Gio
#2 Edler
Value:
Grzelcyk
See you guys in the NHL slake channel.