Welcome to the FREE playoff edition of my articles! I will break down each game for the Wild Card round!
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
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I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from both sites (Fanduel and Draftkings) Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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Welcome to Playoff Baseball! The atmosphere is electric and October is where the magic happens! Below is the breakdown of the two NLDS games that will occur tonight!
Colorado Rockies (ITT 3.8) @ Milwaukee Brewers (ITT 4.8) (-160) O/U: 8.5
Antonio Senzatela (R) vs Brandon Woodruff (R)
Senzatela: Not a big fan of him, but he is better on the road than he is at home. He’s been decent of late though and on a small slate having a couple shares of all the pitchers isn’t a bad idea in MME style. He has allowed hitters to hit just .217 with a wOBA of .277 on the road this season though. The playoffs are a different beast than the regular season though. That being said, if I make 1-5 lineups, I’m not going to have any of Senzatela. The Brewers are on absolute fire coming into the playoffs too.
Brewers: yes, I’m typing just “brewers” for this one. They are having a bullpen game and none of them are viable on Fanduel tonight. If you are playing the showdown slate on DraftKings we may be able to find some value in relief pitchers. Josh Hader if he comes in can rack up strikeouts quick and they may run out Junior Guerra too. It’s a tricky situation for them and I won’t be using any of them tonight.
Rockies: I absolutely HATE bullpen games. It makes it harder to pick which hitters to use. The Brewers can match up with the Rockies hitters and it could cause some of our value bats to be pinch hit for. I actually like the Rockies more in this series and I think their bats have the edge over the Brewers pitching. First off, David Dahl is way too cheap batting 4th. 3.1k on Fanduel is way too cheap in this matchup for him. Trevor Story is on an absolute tear of late and can pretty much hit against anyone. He’s got a .560 xwOBA over the last 2 weeks and was pretty solid against RHP this season hitting .277 with 23 HR. Arenado is always in consideration hitting in the middle of that order and can tee off on anyone. Blackmon should have a good matchup in this game as the 3 lefties for the Brewers may not pitch that much just to face him. I’m not interested in too much more because I do think some of their hitters will get pinch hit for at some point in this game.
Brewers: Senzatela has allowed both sides of the plate to have success. The whole Brewers lineup is in play for me. Yelich is my top guy and the guy is just on fire. In his last 2 weeks, he has a crazy high .548 xwOBA and has 10 extra-base hits over the last two weeks. He’ll likely be chalky and this matchup sets up good for him. He had one game where he was walked every at-bat and still scored 21.4 fanduel points. He’s the top guy for me. Ryan Braun is fantastic value on this slate, especially on fanduel where he is just 3k. He’s rather consistent and it gives you a Brewer bat in the middle of the order, and he also has a .489 xwOBA of late too. Lorenzo Cain has gotten on base in his last 6 games and is a decent price especially on fanduel. A lot of the Brewers are priced up and I actually think Senzatela does well tonight. If you want to use other Brewers I likely won’t mind it, but I won’t be using many others besides these three tonight.
Atlanta Braves (ITT 3) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (ITT 4.1) (-205) O/U: 7
Mike Foltynewicz (R) vs Hyun-Jin Ryu (L)
Foltynewicz: Folty had a great season for the Braves and ended his regular season with two great starts. The Dodgers have been amazing lately and it is hard to use pitchers against them. Folty did have a 2.48 ERA on the road and allowed just a .263 wOBA. He was getting a 27% strikeout rate this year and didn’t let too many runners on base. I think the pitching can come from this game on the small slate tonight, but I think I’ll favor Ryu by a smidge tonight.
Ryu: Surprising they have Ryu starting game 1, but they want Kershaw on normal/extra rest which is understandable. Ryu is still a great starter when healthy this year and he had a 27.5% strikeout rate this season and never really walked anyone. This season he had a 3.18 SIERA and had a Hard% of 33.8%. Getting groundballs helped him a lot too. Ryu was fantastic at home and it will be a tough matchup for the Braves tonight.
Braves: I’m actually not interested in many of these Braves bats tonight. They have been a bit cold. Against LHP of late, their projected lineup has just a .338 xwOBA according to our starting lineups page. The main guys to look at for the Braves, and mainly as one-offs are the power right-handed bats. Ronald Acuna Jr. has had a fantastic season and has one of the highest xwOBA’s of late to lefties. Freeman actually is getting very unlucky. He has a .423 xwOBA to LHP but just a .262 wOBA. He has gotten 5 hits in 8 at-bats against Ryu though and could be lower owned in a LvL situation. Kurt Suzuki could be a decent value bat and he’s been known to hit lefties. Others for the Braves are pretty risky for me. You can use Albies too and Culberson for value if you need it.
Dodgers: Looking at the lineups page for the Dodgers, they all look great. As a team, they have a .417 xwOBA to RHP and a wonderful .266 ISO. Folty has been great to both sides of the plate, but I’m going to still use some of these Dodgers bats. Lefties will be my main guys here, so Muncy, Bellinger, and Grandal. All have crazy power and Muncy has a .514 xwOBA with a .320 ISO to RHP. I loved him last game, and he’s still only 3.4k on fanduel. We saw him have hot stretches this season too. Yasiel Puig has hit RHP much much better this season and he’s interesting here. He has nearly a .500 xwOBA and over a .500 ISO to RHP lately. He’s my top value guy on the Dodgers tonight. My preference in order is Muncy, Puig, Grandal, Bellinger. Guys like Machado and Turner are in play too if you want to use them, I just like the others better. If only using 2, Muncy and Puig are two of my favorites.
The Rockies have a tough game with the Brewers. The Brew Crew can toss out matchups on matchups all game with a strong bullpen. I do think the Rockies hitters have a slight edge, but I’m not going to be full stacking either team in this game. Rockies hitters I like are Dahl, Arenado, Story with a sprinkle of Blackmon. For the Brewers, Yelich is my top guy followed by Braun and Cain. I wouldn’t mind using Shaw either.
For the Braves/Dodgers, I love Ryu tonight and Folty is still in a great spot. Hitters in this game will be one-offs or using 1-3 hitters. Both games can go either way tonight. Please play smart and play light. Good luck!