This week, DraftKings was nice enough to only put 10 games on the main slate. There are several mismatches that can be exploited, but this week we are going to dig deep into 2 games that have high totals and close spreads. When targeting games for DFS, these are 2 things that can lead you to the top. With teams that can score and a game that stay close, shootout situations become more and more likely. These games can produce cash studs and also be stacked to lead you to the GPP promised land!
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Boise State @ Oklahoma State (-3.5) (Total 66)
Boise State – When Boise State travels to Stillwater to take on Oklahoma State this week, it will be each team’s first true test of the year. The Broncos have won their 2 games by a combined score of 118-27 and pulled most of their starters before the final whistle. On the year, the Broncos have run 61 pass plays and 74 rushing plays. Many of these rushing plays have come after the game was out of hand though and the team seems to have a pretty equal pass to run ratio.
The offense for Boise State starts with senior quarterback QB Brett Rypien ($8500). In about 6 quarters of game time, the 4-year starter already has 667 yards, 7 touchdowns and 0 interceptions on the year. He is a pro style quarterback that loves to sling the rock downfield, with 6 of his touchdowns being longer than 20 yards. In the backfield is starting RB Alexander Mattison ($7100). Through 2 weeks, Mattison has 171 yards on 25 carries and 3 touchdowns. Boise State’s main target this year has been WR Sean Modster ($7000). Modster has 13 catches on 17 targets for 254 yards and 2 touchdowns. The next 2 leading receivers for Boise State are WR John Hightower ($3900) and WR AJ Richardson ($6300). Hightower has 7 catches on 9 targets for 134 yards and a touchdown. Richardson has 6 receptions on 8 targets for 130 yards and a touchdown. Expected to return this week is WR Octavius Evans ($5400) who was injured midway through fall camp. Evans is listed as the starter ahead of Hightower and before the season was considered the main red zone receiver for the Broncos. If Evans gets a full load, he is someone I will be looking to target in GPPs. This is also a downgrade to Hightower as he is relegated to the backup role. This is news that I will continue to monitor throughout the week.
Oklahoma State – The Cowboys are in a similar situation as the Broncos in that this is their first real test of the season. They have won their 2 games by a combined 113-30 with most starters being pulled at the end of the 3rd quarter in each of the games. Oklahoma states 2 wins have been a tale of 2 completely different game scripts. In week 1, Missouri State emphasized defending the pass, leading to OSU running for 431 yards (they also passed for 301 yards). In week 2, South Alabama loaded the box so the cowboys threw for 453 yards (also running for 164). Last year, Boise State was ranked 14th against the run and 73rd against the pass. While I look for Oklahoma State to try to establish a running game, I look for them to have more success through the air.
QB Taylor Cornelius ($8900) comes into his first true test as the OSU starter with 728 passing yards, 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions in 6 quarters of work. That last stat is one that has coaches worried, repeatedly stating that the turnovers must be cleaned up. In both of his games, Cornelius has thrown for over 300 yards and I look for that to continue if Oklahoma State is to win this game. Starting in the backfield is Junior stud RB Justice Hill ($7800). Hill has over 200 carries and over 100 yards in each of the past 2 years. This season Hill has 19 carries for 154 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Cowboys also have a very talented group of pass catchers. Leading WR Tylan Wallace ($6100) with 14 receptions on 28 targets for 214 yards and 2 touchdowns. Wallace and Cornelius established a chemistry last season in practice both being on the 2nd team with that carrying over into this year. Slot WR Dillon Stoner ($6400) has had a quiet start to the year but continues to get volume. After 44 catches for 576 yards last season, Stoner has 8 receptions on 17 targets for 83 yards through 2 games. After being the leading receiver in the first game, slot WR Jalen McClesky ($5900) has 8 catches on 13 targets for 77 yards and a touchdown. McClesky also has a 5 yard run for a touchdown. In the last game, South Alabama made a point to clog the middle, including the slot receivers limiting them. This allowed for outside receivers Wallace and WR Tyron Johnson ($5400) to flourish. Johnson, who was also on the 2nd team with Wallace and Cornelius, had the best game of his career with 5 catches for 137 yards. On the season, he has 7 catches on 9 targets for 150 yards. Any one of these WRs could go off and I look to a piece of this team in cash and a good chunk of this game in GPPs.
Florida State (-1.5) @ Syracuse (Total 61)
Florida State – Florida State has had a very rocky start to their year. After a disappointing opening weekend loss to Virginia Tech, FCS school Samford (yes Samford) gave them a run for their money last week as well. Going up against a high powered offense, Florida State is going to have to get it together, and fast. Luckily, they are going up against a defense that gave up over 600 yards of offense in their only other FBS matchup this year. This has all the looks of a showdown.
The Seminoles offense is led by junior QB Deondre Francois ($8700). After starting his Freshman season and throwing for over 3,000 yards, Francois suffered a patella injury forcing him to miss most of last year. This year, the QB has thrown 553 yards, 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. All 3 TDs came last week against Samford while all 3 interceptions came week 1 versus Virginia Tech. This could spell trouble against a Syracuse team that already has 5 interceptions through 2 games. The good news is the Orange are giving up over 300 yards passing per game, leaving plenty of room for improvement for the Seminole QB. In the backfield, the tailback is sophomore RB Cam Akers ($6900). After a freshman campaign with over 1000 yards and 7 touchdowns, Akers has struggled to get it going. Akers has 158 yards on 28 carries but that is a very deceptive number. If you take away the 85 yard run he had against Virginia Tech, Akers is averaging 2.7 yards per carry. Akers also has 7 catches on 10 targets for 38 yards. Going up against Western Michigan, Syracuse gave up 242 yards rushing and some huge rushes. That being said, I would only touch Akers as a GPP play. The pass catchers for Florida State could explode this week. If this game gets into a shootout, the pass defense of Syracuse could get exposed leaving a lot of room for Florida State’s pass catchers. The leading receiver through 2 games is slot WR Nyquan Murray ($6000). Murray has 11 receptions on 18 targets for 114 yards. With that being said, Murray has been bumped to the 2nd string by WR DJ Matthews ($3500). I believe this is a motivational tactic but I want to keep an eye on this situation leading into Saturday. On the year, Matthews has 5 catches on 12 targets for 37 yards. The second leading receiver for FSU is their tight end WR Tre McKitty ($4600). McKitty has 10 catches on 14 targets for 84 yards and a touchdown. If Francois has a big day, the other 2 receivers that will also have to contribute are starters WR Keith Gavin ($4200) and WR Tamorrion Terry ($4000). Gavin comes into this game with 5 receptions on 8 targets for 65 yards while Terry has 4 receptions on 7 targets for 83 yards and 2 touchdowns. With so many question marks, I think Florida State is a team that has a huge boom or bust potential.
FSU Depth Chart
Syracuse – Syracuse has proven to be an explosive offense this year, with 1016 total yards and 117 points through 2 games. This is also a Florida State team that has very much given up plenty of offense this year, including 475 yards through the air alone to Samford last week. I think there could be some very bright spots for this Syracuse team.
And that leads us to the brightest spot for this Orange team, QB Eric Dungey ($9300). Dungey is a dual threat QB in every sense of the word. On the season he has thrown for 402 yards including 7 touchdowns and 1 interception. He has also run for 244 yards and a touchdown. That is almost 65% of the offense accounted for by Dungey alone. Behind Dungey, the running backs are RB Moe Neal ($5800) who has 155 yards and 2 TDs with 38 carries on the year and RB Dontae Strickland ($5200) who has 73 yards on 20 carries and 4 TDs. Strickland is listed as the starter but both games Neal has had the larger workload. With that being said, Dungey is the most explosive rusher on this team and I see the other 2 RBs as punts. Syracuse’s leading receiver through 2 games is WR Jamal Custis ($6500) with 11 receptions on 18 targets for 209 yards and 3 touchdowns. Custis actually had another target in the end zone last week that he tipped directly to teammate WR Sean Riley ($4800). Riley enters the game with 6 receptions on 12 targets for 54 yards and a touchdown. The other starting receiver for the Orange is WR Devin Butler ($5700). Butler has 4 receptions on 14 targets for 37 yards. Syracuse is a team that has a few pieces that I want in a lot of places, and Dungey is very cash safe this week. This is another game that I think could be a sneaky game stack to get you to the top of your GPP.
Note on Syracuse wideouts:
Syracuse Depth Chart
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