Daily Fantasy Sports
Sharp App
Season Long Fantasy
Free Month
Wall of Champions
Discord

Winning the Arms Race: MLB Pitching Primer

Happy Friday DFS Army! The NFL season kicked off last night and millions of drooling DFS players got a little fix for their addiction. But we have another two days until more NFL, so why not play some MLB tonight! It’s a big 14-game slate with a number of solid pitching options. And the larger the slate, the more advantage we usually have in finding guys at reduced ownership.

I go by “Thunder Dan” around here and you can find me @ThunderDanDFS on twitter. I will be handling pitching today as my boy @mdellagnese14 is off. As those who read either “Covering the Bases” or “Dr. StrangeChalk” know, I love talking about pitching and I think that the best process for building lineups is usually settling on your pitcher(s) first. Without any further ado, let’s dive in!

Did you know that DFS Army has its own Sportsbetting service? Our guys over there are absolutely crushing it right now, using advanced analytics and computer models to give members suggested bets with extremely high probabilities of hitting. Check them out here and get in on the action!

Arms you should trust (cash viable with upside)

Aaron Nola (11.3k FD, 11.8k DK)

If I was playing cash games tonight (I’m not, by the way, because it’s September baseball!) I’d be plugging in Nola first. He is the most expensive pitcher on FD but 600 cheaper than Snell on DK. He should be well worth his salary tonight as he gets to pick on the Mets. He’s been one of the best pitchers in the NL all season and has 3 wins in 4 starts against the Mets this season. He struck out 21 Mets hitters in his last starts against them. I fully expect him to dominate and get the win tonight.

Blake Snell (10.7k FD, 12.4k DK)

Snell is the other top pitcher on the board and could easily be the top raw point scorer if Nola just has an average day. Snell is rolling right now, winning his last five starts while allowing only three earned runs during that stretch and striking out 28 hitters in his last three. His FD price is a major discount off his DK price, and the matchup against the Orioles is just as juicy as Nola’s.  I love him in tournaments tonight as a pivot off Nola.

 

Just because NFL is starting, that doesn’t mean we won’t stop smashing MLB. Congrats to Army VIP “youracnecream” (great name by the way) on his big wins on Draftkings earlier this week. VIP members have access to EVERY SPORT and there’s no better time of the year than NOW to play MLB, NFL, PGA, College Football and soon – NBA! Become a VIP today and see why our membership is growing every day.

Risky, but in pretty good spots (GPP only)

Carlos Carrasco (10.8k FD, 11.6k DK)

Carrasco is at the top of our DFSA grades today with a 99.8 rating. That’s hard to ignore! Toronto’s lineup can be dangerous with some good young hitters being called up, but the potential for double-digit strikeouts is there for Carrasco, who has excellent swing and miss stuff (28% k rate, 13.8% swinging strike rate).  He can be volatile at times, which is why I’d rather use one of the other aces in cash, but he makes a nice GPP pivot tonight.

Chris Archer (7.4k FD, 7.3k DK)

Are we ever going to get the breakout Archer game?  We’ve seen Archer disappoint in a couple other good spots since joining the Pirates but at this price, I’ll go back to him tonight as a -200 favorite pitching at home against the Marlins. The good news is that he looked really good in his last start against the Braves, allowing only one run on two hits over six innings. If he has his good stuff tonight, he should be able to easily pay off his price and pick up the win.

Felix Pena (6.8k FD, 6.3k DK)

Pena is a tough guy to figure out. The rookie has shown massive upside at times this season (12 strikeouts against the D-Backs last month) but has let us down a few times in other good spots.  He seems to be trending in the right direction lately as his walk numbers are down, which has allowed him to pitch deeper into games (6 or more in 4 straight starts). While he only struck out two White Sox in his earlier start against them this season, the potential for 6+ is there tonight and at this price he doesn’t have to do much more than that to give you a solid return.

ARE YOU READY FOR SOME NFL Football???

DFS ARMY NFL WEEK 1 FREEROLL on FANTASYDRAFT!    Get in there and reserve your spot now, before it fills!  Week one contest is only 2 days away!

 

Very risky (large field GPP only)

James Paxton (9200 FD, 9800 DK)

I like Paxton as an ownership play tonight as many DFS players don’t like using a pitcher against the Yankees. Despite his constant injury struggles, Pax still has dominant strikeout stuff. He whiffed 10 A’s in only five innings in return from the DL last week and earlier this season struck out 9 Yanks in five innings, too. He gave up two home runs in that game at Yankee Stadium and should benefit from getting to face them this time in a much more pitcher-friendly environment.

Carlos Rodon (8300 FD, 8700 DK)

If there were fewer options tonight, I’d have Rodon higher up in my rankings. He’s an underrated pitcher who should get overlooked tonight. He was rolling right along in the second half but had to face the Yankees and Red Sox in his last two starts, which might keep the game log watchers away. I will continue to target the Angels with left-handers and Rodon was excellent against them in this same spot in July, putting up a solid 51 FD points that night.

Pitcher to stack against

Marco Estrada vs. Cleveland Indians

This might be an obvious recommendation based on the Indians having the largest run total on the board, but even if they didn’t I would be advocating for you to stack against Estrada.  The dude simply can’t keep the ball in the yard and faces a powerful Tribe offense in a good hitters’ park.  Estrada allowed 31 home runs last year and has already given up 25 this season. Yikes!  Stack up the Tribe tonight and make sure you include the righties (like Encarnacion) who actually have better numbers against Estrada.

 

That’s all I got for you today! Grab 3-4 of your favorite pitchers and start building those lineups! Oh and have a great weekend. I’ll be putting out “Covering ALL the Bases” tomorrow and Sunday!

Do you want access to the most advanced Daily Fantasy MLB tools and content in the industry? How about the chance to talk player picks and lineups with our MLB DFS Pros and like-minded players? DFS Army VIP Members get all of that PLUS access to our best in the industry projections and optimization tools. Go to DFS Army VIP membership and use promo code THUNDERDAN to lock in at 10% off the monthly membership fee!