Good morning DFS players! Today I’d like to do something totally different and talk about some specific strategies for playing MLB DFS in September. With two full weeks of regular season MLB games, many players have already moved on to NFL, but if you’re reading this article you’re probably a serious DFS junkie or die-hard MLB fan. Today I will be highlighting my September strategy, some up and coming young players you need to be rostering, and then I’ll take a look at tonight’s slate.
Strategy
September is all about GPPs for me. The uncertainty and unpredictability of baseball is something you have to embrace, and in September it only gets crazier. The type of contests that we love for playing game theory and taking risks is GPPs. If you want to play some smaller sized contests like 10, 20, or 100-mans on FD then. Contest selection is important, the size of most GPP contests shrink considerably so make sure you reserve a spot early in the morning or the night before because there might not be much left close to lock.
As far as roster construction goes, I would not hesitate at all to be very aggressive to fading chalky plays or attacking chalky plays with a pitcher or a hitting stack you really like. These are things you should do anyway, but at this time of the year, I think you can be even more aggressive.
Pay close attention to which teams are resting star players, as we should see a few teams who have locked up playoff spots do that down the stretch. We are also going to see a bunch of “bullpen days” when teams don’t have a starter they want to use that night. Finally, keep in mind that pitchers on contending teams might be on pitch counts, or even if they’re not they could easily be lifted after 5 or 6 innings if their team has a big lead in a game so that they are kept fresh for the playoffs. If you’re following baseball daily, you’re going to be able to utilize that knowledge to your advantage.
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Young Hitters You Should Be Considering Nightly
I really wanted to spotlight some good young bats who have been called up in the last few months are having some MLB success. Some have been up longer than others, but all of these hitters are guys who you should be paying attention to and could be elite options on a nightly basis even though they are not household names yet.
So this first one is cheating a little bit since Mondesi has been up with the Royals for 62 games already. Regardless, the kid is uber-talented and an elite option at SS on most nights due to his HR/Stolen base potential. He swiped 10 bags in August and is hitting .345 so far in September. Just don’t call him Raul, that was his dad (he changed his name and uses his middle name now to distinguish himself).
Sticking with the Royals here and going with first basemen/DH Ryan O’Hearn. The big lefty has 10 homers already in only 135 MLB at-bats showing some serious power. He hit 18 last year in AAA and now has 21 this season between AAA and the majors combined. He’s been hitting 4th or 5th most nights for the Royals and has plenty of RBI opportunities with Mondesi, Alex Gordon, and Whit Merrifield getting on base ahead of him.
McKinney came over to the Blue Jays in the JA Happ deal and quickly showed he had some pop in his bat with a few home runs in his first week as a starter. He’s slowed down a good bit since then, but he still finds his way into the leadoff spot against right-handers and had the best power numbers of his minor league career this year at AAA where he hit 13 homers in only 234 at-bats before being traded.
What a name! Rowdy has been awesome in limited action for Toronto so far, though he hasn’t been anything special at the minor league level. He did hit 23 homers at the AA level a few years ago but didn’t sustain that power at AAA. Either way, the guy is cheap and hitting in the middle of good, young Toronto lineup.
Quinn is a speedster who has already stolen 8 bases in 36 games for the Phillies. He’s hitting .330 and usually leads off for Philly against left-handers since he is a switch hitter. Hitting in front of Rhys Hoskins should only help him see plenty of good pitches to see and he has shown that he can hit well enough at the MLB level to keep getting penciled into that lineup more often than not.
McNeil has been very impressive. Rookies usually don’t come up and make such a big impact in such a short amount of time, yet McNeil (who’s already been priced up as one of the most expensive second basemen) has found his way into the 2-hole and is not only hitting for average but also hitting for power and stealing some bases. The kid started this season in AA and then proceeded to hit .394 in AAA which forced the Mets to give him a look. He should be an everyday starter the rest of the season.
This dude has some serious raw power. He’s been up with the Pads since June and now has 15 homers in his rookie season on top of the 16 he had already hit at AAA before being called up. He single-handedly won me a slate a few weeks ago when he took Zach Godley deep twice that night. His .243 ISO is impressive, don’t sleep on Reyes the rest of the way.
One more Blue-Jay youngster on my list and it’s catcher Danny Jansen. He hasn’t shown a lot of offensive prowess since being called up, but is getting a shot to play a few times a week and was hitting .292 at AAA with 12 dingers before coming up. He is a highly-rated prospect and usually really cheap to play. He’s one of a few good catching prospects you should be watching, including…
Astudillo is a 26-year-old catcher who is finally getting a shot to play fairly regularly with Minnesota. He is a great contact hitter (k-rates of 5% or less in all his minor league seasons) who has also already hit 3 homers in his limited action.
Mejia probably should have been the first catcher I listed because he is a legit top 50 prospect in all of MLB. He came over to the Padres from the Indians at the deadline and has only been up with the Pads for 11 games, but already has hit 3 homers. He was absolutely crushing AAA pitching with 14 home runs and was hitting well over .300. Look for him to continue to get some starts and put up some numbers here at the end of the year.
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Tonight’s Pitchers
Good News: Tonight I really like three pitchers, Patrick Corbin, Mike Folynewicz, and Zach Wheeler.
Bad News: They are the three most expensive pitchers on the slate.
I have no problem paying up for the top arms on the slate tonight, though. With all the value we could see with our hitters, I think it’s a perfectly viable build tonight to pay up for arms and down for bats.
Zach Wheeler may be the safest play of the three. He’s been absolutely rock solid the entire second half and gives you a solid floor in addition to a high ceiling. The Phillies and their 25% strikeout rate combined with Wheeler’s incredibly low hard contact rate put him at the top of my list tonight.
Patrick Corbin‘s breakout year continues as he now reached 230 strikeouts in only 186 innings. Many analysts (including myself) were skeptical if he could keep it up all year throwing as many breaking pitches as he has, but the numbers speak volumes. Targeting the Cubs in a good hitters’ park might be scary for some, but keep in mind that Corbin struck out 9 Cubs over 7 frames back in July and has the top K-rate on the slate.
Folty is a favorite of mine, and I’ll make no apologies. The dude is having the best season of his pro career with a 2.66 ERA and a 1.1 WHIP and is coming off a complete game against the Giants. One of my concerns with him always how deep he goes into pitch counts, and therefore the lack of innings pitched per start, but he showed pitched 6 or more innings now in 6 straight starts. He flashed his massive upside already against this Cardinal team back in July when he struck out 9 Cards in only 5.2 innings.
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Tonight’s Bats
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Adrian Sampson
This game will be in Texas tonight in one of the best hitting environments on the slate and Sampson is a middling prospect who one of our worst pitcher ratings tonight. Tampa is an offense with some pop in their bats with power hitters (CJ Cron, Ji-Man Choi) and some upside for stolen bases as well (Mallex Smith, Kevin Kiermeier, Tommy Pham). Sampson has been bad against righties and lefties so mix and match those Tampa stacks.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Orioles Bullpen
I already highlighted a few of the promising young Blue Jays hitters in McKinney, Jansen, and Tellez, but they also have Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Devon Travis, Toescar Hernandez, Justin Smoak, and Randall Grichuk in their order, all of which have some power or speed. The Orioles are going to have a “bullpen day” today since Andrew Cashner can’t go and their bullpen has allowed the most runs per game (5.5) of any team in the majors this season. I love the idea of building some Jays stacks today with Camden Yards being a great hitters’ park as well.
Houston Astros vs. Wade LeBlanc
The Astros are a dangerous team against left-handers and they happen to have some excellent BvP against LeBlanc. The Gattis-White-Gonzalez trio is 9-19 off him with 5 homers and all of them have excellent splits vs. lefties. Feel free to toss in known lefty smashers Alex Bregman, George Springer, and Jose Altuve as well if you’re able to fit in their higher salaries.
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