The Sway Bar: NASCAR Draftkings Plays, Fades and Values for Las Vegas 2018

We’ve made it to the playoffs, ladies and gentlemen – and business is about to pick up. This week we take a gamble on Las Vegas. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.

Top Plays

Kevin Harvick – It’s going to be hard to not have Harvick in your lineup this week. Harv has been a monster on 1.5 mile tracks this year, with an average finish of 2.4, and an average running position of 4th. He starts fifth, and I honestly don’t expect to see him fall out of the top five. He won here in the spring, is known to perform in the playoffs, and surprise surprise – might have the best car in the field. I’m big on Harvick this week.

Kyle Larson – I feel like Larson is often an afterthought thanks to how good the Big 3 have been this year, but this is not the time to look over Yung Money. Well Larson didn’t lead any laps here in the Spring, he has shown the capability to dominate races (just look at Darlington). I think Larson provides a nice little pivot off Busch and Harvick.

Brad Keselowski – Mr. Momentum himself rolls off 13th on Sunday – at a track where he has finishes inside the top 10 six times in a row. Brad seems to lack the raw horsepower some other cars have, but always has his strategy on point. I don’t see Brad as a dominator, so don’t go overboard with him. However, if he ends up in the top 3, he will be in the optimal.

Kyle Busch – You just can’t ignore KB at his hometrack, Las Vegas. I am not in love with this pick. He is priced WAY high, didn’t look all that stellar in practice, and starts 4th – which is a bit of a deadzone. That all in mind, I reckon he might go a little under-owned because of these factors. I think if you play Kyle, you have to go all in to find an edge.

Fades

I have a FEELING that Erik Jones is going to impress this week. He has been running super well recently and appears to have a fast car. However, the OPTIMAL play would probably to be underweight on him. A second year driver with sub-optimal performance at the track (compared to the hitters behind him) is just too risky to take as a polesitter.

Value

Paul Menard – Menard tends to run pretty well at Las Vegas, and should be able to improve on his 20th starting spot. He has a top 15 car for sure, and maybe even a top 10 car. His average finish here is +9 on his starting spot, so I am fairly comfortable with this play.

Ryan Newman – Newman has a lot of tracks that he is sneaky good at – and this is one of them. An average finish of 10.2 against a 12.8 average running position, paired with a 22nd starting spot creates a Newman stew that is too tasty to fade. Play Newman in bunches this week.

Chris Buescher – I hate to repeat myself but…he is too good not to mention. A bit of a risky play because he is priced quite high for his equipment, but a 28th starting spot is too juicy for a guy who can easily finish top 15 (he did in the spring!).

Reed Sorenson – Punt of the week. This car should attempt to complete every lap. Be careful though, the 7 team is no stranger to parts failures.

So there it is folks. We will be talking more strategy on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.