You thought last week was good? This week’s Monday-Thursday slate is even better! We get Chiefs vs Broncos on Monday and Patriots vs. Colts on Thursday in another great short slate. Last week was profitable so lets keep it going this week!
My name is Josh Thomas, and I write the Chalk Donkey article for NFL VIPs as well as focusing on the showdown/single game slates on both sites and the Monday-Thursday Slate. In this article, I’ll breakdown the best options at each position for the Mon-Thur Slate and give some pivot options off some of the chalkier plays, as well as some strategy for roster construction.
Slate Breakdown:
Well, we see a massive total for the KC/DEN game with a total of 55 and this game looks like its going to be an absolute shoot out, the line for the Patriots/Colts game isn’t out yet, but I would assume we see a little lower total, probably around 45, which isn’t bad but isn’t projecting to be the absolute shootout that we should see in Denver Monday night. The Chiefs are on the road in Denver but thats not going to get me off them. On a short week will TY Hilton play for the Colts? Julian Edelman is back from suspension, what will his role be? Lots of questions to still be answered.
In my opinion, the biggest question you have to answer with your lineups for this week is ‘To Mahomey or Not Mahomey’ and not only that but ‘Naked Mahomey or Clothed Mahomey’. I think the game theory play of fading Mahomes has some merit, but its REALLY hard to swallow. I’ll get to that when we break down the lineups.
Roster construction is difficult this week, but there are a TON of options (as opposed to the Primetime Slate where you had like ZERO options for TE outside of Kelce) One thing to remember when building rosters is that most people will try to jam the MNF game in and forget about the TNF game almost entirely. This week I think you want quite a few pieces of that Monday game but on most weeks fading it can be a +EV move. Similar to how we fade Thursday on the Thursday-Monday Slate.
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Quarterback:
You have four options here and an argument could be made for all four, but at the end of the day the real question is ‘To Mahomey or Not Mahomey’. Are you going to roster Patrick Mahomes or not? All Mahomes has done in the first three games this year is throw for an average of 298 yards a game on 32 pass attempts for an average of 4.3 TD’s a game and ZERO interceptions. Thats insane. He also gets the 19th ranked pass defense and he has about a million weapons (no really he’s thrown touchdowns to NINE different receivers) And we’re talking about fading him?
Look, I’m not fading him, but I think there is some merit to on a short slate. He should be massively owned, maybe 40% owned, thats crazy. I can see a situation where he comes out throws 2 td’s and Kareem Hunt gets two and now the Chiefs are just protecting a lead while Case Keenum airs it out. If thats the case then Mahomes in all likelihood won’t be the best QB on the slate. It could be Andrew Luck who has had 40 pass attempts in each game this year (including 25 in the redzone) or Tom Brady might turn back the clock and have one of those 4 TD performances. Lots can happen on a short slate and the Chiefs can win this game by two touchdowns and Mahomes could not be the nuts.
If you wanna go down the game theory angle and fade or be underweight on Mahomes I can get on board with that strategy. Personally, I think he has a big time performance on Monday Night Football and continues his hot start I’ll have at minimum 50% Mahomes in my lineups.
So where do we go if we fade Mahomes? As I said above, Andrew Luck has had over 40 attempts a game and had a huge game in Week 4 with 62! pass attempts for 464 yards and 4 TDs. (they went to OT which helped, but still!) I can’t believe his noodle arm didn’t fall off throwing it that many times. The big concern with Luck though is this…
Colts HC Frank Reich said that TY Hilton, who suffered a hamstring injury today, probably will not be able to play Thursday night vs Patriots.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 30, 2018
While he was successful with his other options today, not having TY Hilton is a HUGE blow to this offense. I think Luck is a viable option just based on volume alone. He should also be playing from behind again and forced to air it out as their RB situation is what you would call, “Not Good”.
I like the guy on the other side of this game a ton as well. Case Keenum is not a very good quarterback and he’s proven that over the last two weeks where he has failed to crack 16 DK points or 225 yards passing. In this game though, he is going to be forced to chuck it up in the thin Denver air to contend with the explosive Chiefs offense. He has a ton of offensive weapons and this Chiefs D is mediocre at best and horrible at worse. It lines up for a pretty good situation for Case here.
I typically don’t play Tom Brady in DFS just because you never know what you are going to get. The Pats could put 45 on the board and he might only have one TD pass. I think we see the two headed monster of James White and Sony Michel eat against these Colts this week and I won’t have much, if any exposure to TB12.
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Running Back:
Oofta. This is ugly. Basically you can play Kareem Hunt who occasionally gets forgotten about in Andy Reid’s offense, or the two headed monster in New England of James White and Sony Michel. There are some low owned options though that we can fire up, especially if we want to pay up at WR/TE.
Hunt, White, and Michel are all great options. My big concern with Hunt is that he is not involved in the passing game, at all. They’ve been bringing in Spencer Ware for passing downs and he’s not getting the check downs because Mahomes can extend the play with his feet unlike Alex Smith. I’m not sure how much Hunt I’m going to have this week, especially as the highest priced RB on the slate. He could go off and he had two short TD’s last week, but I just think there are better options on the slate than Hunt. I will have Hunt exposure in my non-Mahomes lineups though to leverage that situation.
White and Michel both went nuts on Sunday, but your guess is as good as mine for who is going to get the rock the most on Thursday. I lean towards rostering White on DK and Michel on FD. Both should be able to get some run, and if the line looks like its going to favor the Patriots, I’ll have more Michel than White as he can ice the game.
There are some lower priced options that I really like on this slate though, but particularly Phillip Lindsay and Nyheim Hines. Hines was a guy that was getting touted in the offseason but had an awful preseason and many were surprised he made the team. Lindsay came out of absolutely no where as an undrafted free agent and has essentially taken over the top spot in the Denver backfield, particularly on passing downs. Both catch passes out of the backfield and make great PPR options on DK. Hines may be popular given he had a great Sunday and caught two td passes, but those short check down passes are going to be essential to this offense against the Patriots on Thursday.
Lindsay had two straight games of 100 yards or more before getting booted for punching a player in week three. That ejection should help limit his ownership as the game log watchers will see 20 yards in week three and stay away. Thats where we get back on! Lindsay might end up being my highest owned player on the slate.
Wide Receiver:
Give me allllll the Emmanuel Sanders allll of it! I love Sanders this week and he will easily be my highest owned receiver. Keenum loves him and they continue to get him involved in a variety of ways on Jet Sweeps and returning punts etc. In a shoot out against a crappy KC D? Yep. Sanders baby.
Outside of Sanders, I obviously have interest in all of the KC Receivers. Tyreek Hill should carry the most ownership of any of them, but I assume that the Broncos will put all their resources towards covering him. I have some concerns about any KC receiver just because of how well Mahomes spreads it around. Sammy Watkins is in play and so is Chris Conley who while only being targeted 6 times this year has been targeted twice in the red zone, both for TDs.
Josh Gordon looked really strong in his first game with the Pats catching both of his targets, but at his price on DK I’m not sure you can afford him. Chris Hogan appears to be an afterthought in this NE offense so that means you should go all in on him because that seems to be what Billy Boy does. Phillip Dorsett had 7 targets and seems to have firmly found a spot in this offense but could be giving up targets with the return of one of Brady’s favorite targets, Julian Edelman.
Edelman returns after a four week suspension and is in a great situation with Gronk out. I have some concerns about it being a short week but I would guess he gets involved early and often. Over the last 5 games last season, Edelman averaged 12 targets and 97 yards a game, but only had one touchdown and averaged less than one redzone target a game. So the volume is there, but his redzone usage is a bit concerning. He’s not a lock for me but I’ll have quite a bit exposure assuming he falls back into the role he played last year. What I’ll likely do is roster Gordon to start the week and it’s an easy flip to Edelman on DK and then make sure I have the salary to get to him on FD. Late swap is often the key to winning these short slates!
Courtland Sutton and Demaryius Thomas are both in play if you are stacking Denver. Ryan Grant also is in play as he appears to be one of Luck’s favorite targets and a sneaky play may be Zach Pascal who had 10 targets in Week 4 and is min price.
Tight End:
So you can pay up here for one of the two studs Travis Kelce or Rob Gronkowski (who is banged up with an ankle injury) or drop down to one of the hottest TE’s and best values on the slate in Eric Ebron. Ebron had 10 TEN targets again this week and continues to be one of Andrew Luck’s favorite targets, especially in the End Zone. He’s a Wide Receiver in a Tight Ends body and creates nightmare matchups similar to the two studs listed above, but he is massively underpriced.
Kelce is a great play if you have the cash, and I’m probably going to stay away from Gronk, so that means that I will likely be heavily invested in Eric Ebron this week.
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Defense:
Two high total games and we have to pick a defense? Yuck. None of these defenses are good, with the best being the Indianapolis Colts according to Football Outsiders DVOA as well as average fantasy points per game. I’ll have the majority of my ownership there except for any Patriots stacks I have. Its so hard to pick defenses for this short slates and often I just choose the cheapest one so I can fit more studs. Thankfully the Colts are the second cheapest option on both sites. Paying up for Defense on these short slates is almost always a bad move.
Final Thoughts:
I love the Monday-Thursday slate and think its easier to cash most weeks than the Main, but the line between cashing and not is pretty sharp because its only two games. Be smart with your bankroll and contest selection though and you should have a profitable week!
Let’s have a great week! I can’t wait to see those helmets crushing at the top of the leaderboard!
Make sure you message me in my channel #dfsupnorth-nfl-pga and tag me with any lineup questions or help as that’s the easiest way to get ahold of me!
Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to the games tonight!