Welcome to the September 5th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel and DraftKings!
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
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I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all both sites (Fanduel and Draftkings) Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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BULLPEN REPORTS
**Note, the rankings are all the way at the end of this article, don’t forget to scroll ALL the way to the end!**
Main Slate
Nick Pivetta (8.2k FD) (8.2k DK) @ MIA
I don’t like Pivetta’s recent form that much, but this matchup and price is hard to ignore. He’s priced right around the mid-range area and has tons of upside in the matchup with the Marlins. He grades out pretty high on our research station and looked much better in his last start. His advanced stats look better than his actual stats lately, as in the last 45 days, he has a very low .283 xwOBA and has a really good 28.2% strikeout rate on the season. We have seen the upside Pivetta has been able to show this season, and he has one of his higher fantasy point scoring games against these Marlins. As I normally say when a pitcher faces the Marlins, they are a very pesky team and they don’t strike out a ton, but normally they don’t hit for much power either. Pivetta struggles against lefties more than righties, and we only have 2 lefties projected in their starting lineup right now. Aside from Anderson and Castro, they have 1 other guy who’s xwOBA is above the average for the day. The Marlins are implied just 3.25 runs at the moment and Pivetta gets a nice park boost pitching in Miami. Not a cash play, but he definitely has the upside in tournaments for a cheap price.
Hyun-Jin Ryu (8.5k FD) (9.2k DK) vs NYM
This game is going to be a good one for pitching. Both pitchers are in good form and both offenses can struggle. Ryu has been solid in his last 3 of 4 starts back from the DL. In those 3 good starts, he has gotten 40, 41, and 34 fanduel points, and has not allowed more than 3 earned runs in any start this season. We saw Rich Hill struggle at the beginning of last night’s game, but he still ended up doing decent from a fantasy point perspective. Ryu comes into this start with a very good 28.6% strikeout rate and just 5.8% walk rate this season. Albeit, he hasn’t pitched all that much this year, but his last 4 he’s gotten 23 strikeouts in 22.2 innings. It’s funny because the Mets lefties are the ones who did the damage last night against Hill, and their righties didn’t do all that much. Against LHP in their L14, they are pretty average in advanced stats that I look at daily. Their xwOBA vs LHP though is a different story. They are in the bottom half of the league in the 14 day time period with just a .298 xwOBA. Ryu grades out as one of our better options today and I agree with that rating. The projected lineup we have for the Mets has just a .288 xwOBA with a 24.43% strikeout rate and .123 ISO against lefties in the L14. Ryu has been dominant at home this season, allowing just a .191 average, .225 wOBA, and just a .251 xwOBA overall in his last 4 starts. He doesn’t get hit very hard (84 mph aEV) and he does a good job getting ground balls (50.8% GB rate) and also has a very low SIERA at 3.14. He will likely will be lower owned, but the Dodgers do have an odd 4:35 PM PST game today. This is a great spot for him tonight in what I see as being a low scoring game.
Zack Wheeler (10.2k FD) (10.4k DK) @ LAD
Wheeler’s price is up there now, but he’s been performing to that price tag for a while. He grades out as our 4th highest pitcher tonight but does have a tough task with the Dodgers. If you’ve been following the Dodgers at all this season, you will know that they tend to go ghost for stretches at a time. They come into this game with a higher 24.6% strikeout rate to RHP in their L14 and their projected lineup has a below average xwOBA at .318. It isn’t too low, but Wheeler has been amazing over his last 9 or so starts. He has the 2nd lowest xwOBA on the slate at .249 even though his aEV is rather high. With his over 10k price tag on both sites, I will likely just keep Wheeler in tournaments, but he does have the upside. He’s been rolling since the middle of July. Since his July 14th start against Washington, he has gone at least 7 innings in all but 2 starts and has a 7-1 record with 7 quality starts. His fantasy output has been great too. Racking up the strikeouts and not allowing very many runs has helped his price go up. I do think the matchup with LAD and the high price tag will keep his ownership down and making him a great tournament pivot off Severino. Wheeler has scored at least 40 fanduel points in 6 of his last 9 starts and has 7 or more strikeouts in 6 of them as well. He’s been very good both home and away and actually has allowed a lower wOBA on the road. Love Wheeler for tournaments tonight.
Luis Severino (10.8k FD) (11.9k DK) @ OAK
First off, yes he’s pretty expensive. His form hasn’t been that great lately, but he’s been able to still rack up the strikeouts. This is a hot wildcard race at the end and Oakland needs to win games to hold on to that second WC spot. It will be a tough task for them and for Severino tonight, but I’m going to favor Sevvy here. Oakland comes into this game with a 23.9% strikeout rate against RHP in the L14 and have a pretty average xwOBA at .333. The Yankees have a good matchup against the flyball pitcher Fiers and Severino should have a good shot at the win. Severino is our top-rated pitcher tonight, and the 2nd guy (Ryu) is a full 11.1 points behind him. Despite hitting a long rough stretch, it may have turned around lately. Even though he’s only gone 6+ innings twice over his last 5 starts, his strikeouts have still been there. He had 10 last game, then averaged about 8 in the 4 before that. Oakland doesn’t have that many at-bats against him, but do have a 26% strikeout rate vs him. Severino is a great pitcher and he really needs to turn it around down the stretch in time for the playoffs. Look for him to have a good game tonight. Remember, don’t tilt if he gives up 1 or 2 early on, he usually can get enough strikeouts to make up for it!
Tyler Glasnow (6.7k FD) (9.5k DK) @ TOR
No way am I touching Glasnow on DraftKings tonight, but man his fanduel price is very interesting. Glasnow is finally stretched out where the Rays have allowed him to go deeper into games. He seems to have found new life with the Rays and that’s great to see for the young starter. In 5 starts with the Rays, hs innings have been going up and he’s done very well in those starts. He hasn’t allowed more than 5 hits in any start and has had the strikeout stuff working. His fanduel price will allow you to pretty much do whatever you want for hitters and he’s worth much more than that price. The kid has at least 30 fanduel points in 4 of his last 5 outings and that one he didn’t was against the Red Sox. He limited the Indians last time out and scored 40 fanduel points. Glasnow has an amazing 30.7% strikeout rate on the season and doesn’t allow too many home runs. He is pitching to a 3.49 SIERA and allowed just 30% hard contact with 50% ground balls. His wOBA-xwOBA numbers show he’s getting a tad lucky, but nonetheless, he’s been good. His price on fanduel is very intriguing for tournaments, but I won’t be touching him on DK at all.
Jameson Taillon (9.3k FD) (9.9k DK) vs CIN
So, Taillon is only $400 more than Glasnow on DK? I like that. The Pirates open up as big favorites against the Reds and Homer Bailey tonight and Taillon has been superb lately. He’s rolled off 3 straight 40/20 games and has 4 of his last 5 over 40/20. Jameson has been solid and going deep into games. Over his last 7 starts, he hasn’t gone less than 6 innings and hasn’t been getting lit up either. When looking at the lineups page, we see that he’s allowed just a .312 xwOBA over the last 45 days and has been absolutely dominant against RHH. Righties are getting just a .211 xwOBA against him and he’s gotten a very good 25.6% strikeout rate against them too. People never play Taillon, and that’s even more reason to like him tonight. The Reds are projected to have a bunch of lefties, but only Votto and Gennett really scare me. Aside from Votto and Suarez, none of the other projected starters have an xwOBA higher than .316 and their wOBA-xwOBA numbers suggest they are getting a little lucky. He will have to work hard for those strikeouts tonight as they don’t have a high strikeout rate, but I still think he makes it out with 6+. Pitching in Pittsburgh makes him more interesting because it’s such a big ballpark to pitch in. I love Taillon to be low owned tonight and could pop off for a good game.
Framber Valdez (6.2k FD) (7.1k DK) vs MIN
The punt for me today is Valdez from Houston. Houston is running hot right now, and they get to face the Twins who really don’t worry me too much. Valdez has been “okay” in his first two starts for Houston this year, but has only allowed 2 ER in 10 innings against the tough Angels. While in AA this season, he was very very good and I’m hoping that those numbers translate in to the MLB. He showed that he was able to get strikeouts during his minor league career having a 30.5% rate in AA and having over a 22% strikeout rate since he was signed in 2015. The thing that I really like about him is his ability to limit home runs (never has given up more than 0.73 HR/9), and his ground ball ability. He was getting a very good 57.4% groundball rate in AA this season with just a 17.7% fly ball rate. Now, I know the MLB is way different than the minors. But having a high groundball rate will set you up good for the bigs. His walk rate was a little high, but nothing that cannot be worked on as his nerves go away and he gets more comfortable with the Astros. Pure GPP punt if you are playing a ton of lineups tonight, but I can see him scoring 25+ on fanduel and around 15+ on draftkings.
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MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Luis Severino (all formats)
- Hyun-Jin Ryu (all formats)
- Zack Wheeler (lean GPP)
- Nick Pivetta (GPP)
- Jameson Taillon (GPP)
- Tyler Glasnow (FD ONLY GPP)
- Framber Valdez (large GPP)
QUICK PICK ON FANDUEL PITCHING TIER RANKS
TIER 1: Severino, Wheeler, Taillon
2: Ryu, Pivetta, Roark, Kopech (watch weather)
3: Glasnow, Valdez, Leake, Quintana
4: Zimmermann (watch weather), Colon (ugh, I know), Senzatela
Good Luck Everyone!