Welcome to the September 28th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel and DraftKings
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from both sites (Fanduel and Draftkings) Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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BULLPEN REPORTS
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**Note, the rankings are all the way at the end of this article, don’t forget to scroll ALL the way to the end!**
Main Slate
**SEPTEMBER MLB NOTE: this time of year I think we need to lower our volume as MLB is crazy with September call-ups and organizations trying to see what they have for next year. All of my plays will mainly be geared towards tournaments for the rest of the season**
Gerrit Cole (11.4k FD) (12.8k DK) @ BAL
With one of the best matchups on the board, I can see him being highly owned. Unlike last night, where there were not any other great options, tonight there are some cheaper ones who I like. Right now, they are projected just 3.20 runs and their projected lineup has a .303 xwOBA with a 23.39% strikeout rate. They went off last game, which was game 2 of the doubleheader with Boston. Cole comes into his final start of the regular season with a 35.1% strikeout rate with a 2.88 SIERA and doesn’t get hit too hard. Cole has great upside in this matchup, which he’ll need to pay off that salary.
Mike Foltynewicz (9.6k FD) (9k DK) @ PHI
This actually sets up as a good matchup for Folty tonight. The Phillies as a team have been striking out a ton lately and Foltynewicz has upside in this matchup. Over the L14 vs RHP, the Phillies have not been good at all. They have a 25.8% strikeout rate and are hitting under .200 as a team. In 187 at-bats against Folty, the Phillies are hitting just .251 with a 27.8% strikeout rate. Of late, Foltynewicz has been one of the better pitchers on this slate. He has a .262 xwOBA over his last 45 days and he’s been able to limit both sides of the plate. Aside from his start vs the Cardinals, he’s been rolling lately, going at least 6 innings in 6 of his last 7 starts. He did just face this Phillies team, which makes me worry a little, but this is his final tune-up for the playoffs.
J.A. Happ (9.9k FD) (10.2k DK) @ BOS
I kept going back and forth on this play but I decided to add him in. Happ’s price is not something I like, but I do love his history against the Red Sox. I doubt we see a weird lineup from the Sox tonight in their last 3 games, but the Yanks need a win to lock up home field for the Wild Card game. Last time he faced Boston he scored 40/21.3 FD/DK where he went 6 innings with 6 strikeouts. It’s not like the Sox haven’t seen Happ, actually, they have the second most history against a starter on tonight’s slate. They are hitting just .228 with a 22% strikeout rate. Happ has a 26.2% strikeout rate this season and gets about 40% groundballs while allowing just 31% hard contact. The Yankees need to win here and he’s pitching to potentially start the WC game next week. There is some risk here against a great offense, but it could be worth it in the end. This is exactly why the Yankees traded for him, because his good history against the rivals, he will need a good start here so he can face them again in the ALDS.
Mike Clevinger (9.7k FD) (10.4k DK) @ KC
The Indians have nothing to really play for besides getting and keeping the momentum going into the ALDS next week. Clevinger has had good success against the Royals this season and last time he faced them he struck out 10 Royals in 6 innings. His issue is he tends to throw a ton of pitches which limits his innings. Still, though, he’s able to rack up strikeouts when he’s in there. Over his last 5 starts, he’s picked up 2 55+ point fanduel games, 2 40+ fanduel games then his last start was not the best against Boston. The Royals projected lineup is hitting pretty good, but also have a 23.49% strikeout rate. He’s had success against KC this year and I expect that to continue tonight.
Patrick Corbin (10.6k FD) (10.8k DK) @ SD
Our top-rated pitcher on this slate tonight and he has a wonderful matchup tonight. The Diamondbacks are very cold right now, but they do have a good matchup tonight and Corbin should be able to mow down this lineup. Their projected lineup has just a .307 xwOBA with a 21.59% strikeout rate. As a team vs LHP in the L14, they have a 23.4% strikeout rate, while hitting just .217 with a wOBA of .273 and low wRC+ at 70. A few guys on this team (mainly Wil Myers), has good history against Corbin. He’s been a bit shaky of late but has had some tougher matchups. He has had 1 great start against the Padres this year and one “meh” start against them. His last start could keep people off him tonight, but he normally will sit around 7-9 strikeouts per start. If he’s able to get those strikeouts and limit the damage, he should have no problem racking up 40/20 tonight.
Hyun-Jin Ryu (10k FD) (11k DK) @ SF
Wow, it seems like both sites know how bad the Giants are. Ryu is priced up way higher than I would like, but the matchup is great and the Dodgers are still playing to win the NL West Division. Looking at the projected lineup for the Giants, they look just TERRIBLE. Coming into this start with a .222 xwOBA, 0.098 ISO, and 23.54% strikeout rate against lefties of late really hurts them. Ryu has also been amazing of late too. I always worry about him and getting pulled early, but his last two starts he went 6 and 7 innings respectively. In those starts, he scored 46 and 52 fanduel points and only allowed 4 hits in each start. Ryu will need to pitch for his life tonight, but the matchup couldn’t really get any better for the Dodgers to close out the season.
Others I’ll consider tonight:
Kyle Freeland vs WSH: Very tough matchup for Anderson here, especially at home, but the Rockies need to win these last 3 games to win the NL West. He should have that extra motivation tonight.
Mike Fiers @ LAA: nothing spectacular with Fiers, but he’s been great since coming over to the A’s. This is his tune-up start for the WC game against the Yankees and he has that 30+ point upside on fanduel. The Angels projected lineup does have a 23.68% strikeout rate.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS Gerrit Cole
- Gerrit Cole
- Hyun-Jin Ryu
- Patrick Corbin
- Mike Clevinger
- J.A. Happ
- Mike Foltynewicz
QUICK PICK ON FANDUEL PITCHING TIER RANKS
TIER 1: Ryu, Corbin, Clevinger, Foltynewicz
2: Fiers, Freeland, Bumgarner, Urena
3: LeBlanc, Glasnow, Kennedy, Lauer
4: Barria, Giolito, Davies
Good Luck Everyone!