Welcome to the September 26th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel and DraftKings

In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.

I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!

I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from both sites (Fanduel and Draftkings) Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.

Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!

NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!

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If you find yourself thinking, “what do some of these stats mean?” Check out my new definitions article HERE. I explain what each stat I use mean, and reasons why I use those stats in my articles!

BULLPEN REPORTS

**will be added later or posted in our VIP Slack Chat!

**Note, the rankings are all the way at the end of this article, don’t forget to scroll ALL the way to the end!**

Main Slate

**SEPTEMBER MLB NOTE: this time of year I think we need to lower our volume as MLB is crazy with September call ups and organizations trying to see what they have for next year. All of my plays will mainly be geared towards tournaments for the rest of the season**

Masahiro Tanaka (10.7k FD) (9.5k DK) @ TB

The Yanks bats were amazing last night and Severino did not do that great, but still put up decent numbers. This Rays team has been pretty hot of late, but Tanaka has the upside whenever he takes the hill. Their lineup is striking out a bunch (22.68%) and have about an average xwOBA. Tanaka has been brilliant for most of this season and has shown upwards of 50+ games on Fanduel. On the year, he has a 25.2% strikeout rate and just a 5.5% walk rate. His issues are always giving up home runs, but he’s only allowed 2 home runs over his last 7 starts. The BvP history is pretty good against him, but he also has some high scoring games against them as well. Tanaka is a nice mid-range option for tonight’s slate. He also is a big discount from deGrom on both sites and is much lower on DraftKings.

Jacob deGrom (12.3k FD) (13.2k DK) vs ATL

Not an easy matchup for deGrom tonight, but it is one that he has done well in. Atlanta is a team who rarely strikes out but deGrom is a pitcher who will find those strikeouts. He’s faced them a ton this year and only has 1 start where he scored less than 40 fanduel points and that was when he got injured. deGrom has also gotten 40 strikeouts in 33 innings against them on the season and they are hitting just .202 as a team against him this year. deGrom should get the NL Cy Young, but who knows because these voters seem to LOVE the win/loss stat, it’s not his fault he’s on a team with a horrible offense. Isn’t it crazy that if they scored 2 more runs in each of his starts he would have a 20-6 record? Sorry, rant is over on that. But deGrom is lights out every time he pitches and can get 10+ strikeouts, even against the Braves. He will cost you a pretty penny, but I think that could make his ownership a bit lower too.

Chris Sale (11k FD) (11.k DK) vs BAL

I was reading that Sale is going to be on a “90-ish” pitch count tonight and that made me like Sale more than I originally did. He’s still a solid discount from deGrom in a MUCH better matchup than deGrom. Sale gets the worst team in baseball and has immense strikeout upside in this matchup. Since this is game 2 of the doubleheader, we could see an even worse Baltimore lineup. Right now, as I’m writing this game 1 is still going on, but their projected lineup for the nightcap has just a .241 xwOBA and 27.34 strikeout rate. I can easily see Sale racking up 50+ with 90 pitches tonight. Last start he only went 3.1 innings on his pitch count and still racked up 25 fanduel points with 7 strikeouts. With him being able to go deeper into this one, he should have no problem with the O’s again.

Shane Bieber (8.8k FD) (8.9k DK) @ CWS

One of my favorite mid-tier options tonight in a prime matchup against the White Sox. Bieber has been really good for the Indians this season and has a 23.5% strikeout rate with just a 4.5% walk rate. He’s walking less than 2 hitters per 9 innings and gets 46% groundballs. Chicago’s projected lineup doesn’t look good against RHP of late. They come into this game with a .266 xwOBA, 0.091 ISO, and 24.12% strikeout rate. Even if they don’t roll what we have projected, I can’t see these numbers getting much better. In his one and only start against the White Sox, Bieber went 6.2 innings while striking out 8 hitters, good for 48 fanduel points and 28 DraftKings points. He’s a solid price in a great matchup tonight. The Indians are going to need him to pitch well here and continue it into the playoffs.

German Marquez (10.2k FD) (10.2k DK) vs PHI

Not ideal to be at home when needing to win games for the Rockies, but Marquez doesn’t really care where he pitches. We cannot deny his consistency of late either, both home and away. He has at least 11 strikeouts in 4 of his last 5 starts and has topped 51 fanduel points in the same 4 of 5. Over the last 45 days, Marquez has allowed just a .279 xwOBA and his strikeout rate is so high. People prob won’t want to play that much of him because he’s in Coors and whenever he is he’s low owned. He’s in that range where people would pay up or down and skip right over him. The Phillies strikeout a ton with a 24.3% strikeout rate as a team over the last 14 days while hitting just over .200. Marquez has shown that he has 50+ point upside in nearly every matchup. The Rockies need to win every game they can in these last few days of the season. Great tournament play with great upside.

Others I’ll consider tonight:

Jake Odorizzi vs DET

Zack Greinke vs LAD (great BvP history for Greinke tonight, but the Dodgers have been really hot of late. GPP only)

Andrew Heaney vs TEX (hasn’t been too great against Texas, but their projected lineup does have a 24.61% strikeout rate. I don’t love him, but I can see some upside here)

MAIN SLATE RANKINGS 

1.  Chris Sale

2.  Jacob deGrom

3. German Marquez

4.  Shane Bieber

5.  Masahiro Tanaka

QUICK PICK ON FANDUEL PITCHING TIER RANKS

TIER 1: Sale, deGrom, Marquez, Tanaka

2: Bieber, Greinke, Heaney

3: Odorizzi, Newcomb

4: Hernandez, Stripling (large GPP, he hasn’t been going deep into games, but ARI hasn’t been great lately)

Good Luck Everyone!