Welcome to the September 25th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel and DraftKings
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from both sites (Fanduel and Draftkings) Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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BULLPEN REPORTS
**Note, the rankings are all the way at the end of this article, don’t forget to scroll ALL the way to the end!**
Main Slate
**SEPTEMBER MLB NOTE: this time of year I think we need to lower our volume as MLB is crazy with September call-upsand organizations trying to see what they have for next year. All of my plays will mainly be geared towards tournaments for the rest of the season**
Max Scherzer (12.4k FD) (12.8k DK) vs MIA
We have less than a week left of the MLB season and these pitchers are going to want to finish their season strong, especially if their team has nothing to play for. Max looks like he’s going to be neck and neck with deGrom for the top two NL Cy Young candidates this season and Max has a nice matchup tonight. Miami hitters have horrible stats against Max and the only way I see him scoring less than 45/25 (FD/DK) points tonight is if he doesn’t get his normal run tonight. The Marlins are pretty bad lately and have the 4th highest strikeout rate in the MLB over the L14 vs RHP at 25.9%. The Marlins lineup doesn’t scare me one but and Max could be the highest scoring pitcher on this slate. Don’t overthink it in cash games, he’s a fantastic option in all formats if you want to pay for him.
Josh James (6.5k FD) (8.1k DK) @ TOR
This kid has impressed since being called up to the bigs and he definitely has upside. I’ll start off with the Jays have the 6th highest strikeout rate against RHP of late at 24.9%. They are pretty average in the rest of the categories that I look at. Throughout his short minor league career, he has shown crazy strikeout upside. Before getting called up, he had a 41% strikeout rate in AA and a 35.2% strikeout rate in AAA. He does walk a bit more hitters than I’d like, but his strikeout upside is there. He has seen his groundball rate drop since AA this season, but he still hasn’t given up many home runs. We don’t get much-batted ball data for minor league stats, but he’s only given up 26.5% hard contact and has a SIERA of 2.64 in his 4 starts. His two road starts in the MLB were not as good as his two home starts, but the Astros are going to want to see what this kid can do for future seasons. I definitely see upside in this matchup for tournaments tonight.
Walker Buehler (10.1k FD) (11.7k DK) @ ARI
Buehler has done nothing but impresses all season for the Dodgers. Even in tough matchups, he has found ways to succeed. This is a great matchup for the Dodgers against Matt Koch and I think that could make it easier for the win. Our projected lineup for the Diamondbacks only has a .283 xwOBA with a 22.31% strikeout rate vs RHP of late. Only 3 of their hitters have above a .300 xwOBA then you add in the pitcher’s spot which could add for a few extra strikeouts. Buehler is a great pivot from Max tonight with nearly the same upside. He’s striking out a ton of hitters and not walking many either. For the most part, Buehler has been around the 7+ strikeout mark and struck out a career-high 12 last start against Colorado. The Dodgers want to win the NL East and the division will come down to the wire, possibly until Sunday. Buehler has faced this Diamondbacks team before and they have just 2 hits in 20 at-bats with 8 strikeouts against him. It’s obviously a small sample, but he’s been amazing and I love this spot for him tonight.
Luis Severino (10k FD) (11.1k DK) @ TB
I like Severino a bit more at home, but he is pitching to start the WC game for NYY. He has been a little better lately but the Rays still have been very pesky. Their projected lineup still has a 23.43% strikeout rate and Severino has only a .295 xwOBA over the last 45 days. He has been getting hit rather hard, but still has had strikeout upside. The Yankees really need him to find his groove with his last or second to the last start of the season. Right now, if I was Aaron Boone Severino would NOT be starting my Wild Card game. Severino has had good starts against the Rays but has had a little problem on the road against them. Across 82 at-bats though, they are hitting just .220 with a .073 ISO and .245 wOBA against Severino with a 32.9% strikeout rate. I won’t touch him in cash games, but tournaments he’s worth a consideration.
Robbie Erlin (6.2k FD) (5.4k DK) @ SF
Normally I’m not a big fan of Erlin, I don’t see the upside with him, but it’s hard to ignore this matchup with the Giants. He just faced them and if he was able to get Stratton out, he would have had a better stat line. The Giants projected lineup is one of the worst I’ve seen and it just never seems to get better. They have an xwOBA of just .222, with a 23.54% strikeout rate. The ballpark favors pitchers in this one and Erlin is uber cheap on both sites to pay up for your bats. His strikeout rate isn’t anything to rave about, but he doesn’t walk many hitters which is good. Despite the low strikeout rate, he does have a 46.4% groundball rate and a SIERA of 3.52. He did only score 21 FD points against them the last start, but I can see him doing better tonight.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
1. Max Scherzer
2. Walker Buehler
3. Luis Severino (GPP ONLY)
4. Josh Games (GPP ONLY)
5. Robbie Erlin (GPP ONLY)
TEAM BATS I LIKE TONIGHT (Besides Coors Game)
· Dodgers
· Nationals
· Astros
· Yankees (only one-offs for me)
· Indians
QUICK PICK ON FANDUEL PITCHING TIER RANKS
TIER 1: Scherzer, Buehler, Syndergaard
2: Severino, Archer, Gonzalez, Gomber
3: James, Shields (yes, they are two different pitchers), Stratton
4: Erlin (this tier is horrible, I’m just going to use Erlin here and move on)
Good Luck Everyone!