Welcome to the September 22nd Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel and DraftKings
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from both sites (Fanduel and Draftkings) Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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BULLPEN REPORTS
**will be added later or posted in our VIP Slack Chat!
**Note, the rankings are all the way at the end of this article, don’t forget to scroll ALL the way to the end!**
Main Slate
**SEPTEMBER MLB NOTE: this time of year I think we need to lower our volume as MLB is crazy with September call ups and organizations trying to see what they have for next year. All of my plays will mainly be geared towards tournaments for the rest of the season**
Jose Urena (7.9k FD) (7.6k DK) vs CIN
Last night Chen absolutely pitched a gem against these Reds. Urena was a guy who I always wanted to stack against, but he has turned it around of late and I think he’s an interesting tournament play tonight. The projected lineup for the Reds has a fairly low xwOBA, but they aren’t striking out much against RHP. Chen was able to get 8 strikeouts last night (yes, he’s a lefty), but Urena has been solid over his last 5 starts. In this stretch, he has just 1 game under 30 fanduel points and he’s faced some good offenses. The bad start in the last 5 was against Boston, but other than that he has not allowed more than 1 ER in 4 of his last 5 and wasn’t giving up a ton of hits either. Despite what their projected lineup is (it could change), the Reds are striking out at a 24.7% clip as a team against RHP, they have just a 68 wRC+ and are hitting just .210. I can see him popping for another 30 fanduel point game and his hits allowed have been down too, making him viable on DK too.
Justin Verlander (12.2k FD) (12.1k DK) vs LAA
Very expensive is Verlander tonight, but after seeing what Cole did to this Angels team, Verlander should be able to replicate that. The Angles are implied just 2.66 runs right now and their projected starting lineups doesn’t look that amazing. As a team vs RHP, they have a 23.1% strikeout rate while hitting .228. Over the last 45 days, Verlander has been pretty good and has an xwOBA of just .279 and has been striking out a ton of hitters. Over his last 9 starts, he has struck out at least 10 strikeouts in 5 of those starts. He does have a couple rough outings in this stretch but found ways to bounce back. Verlander has been amazing this season and comes into this start with a 34% strikeout rate and doesn’t walk many hitters. His SIERA sits at 2.73 and he allows less than 30% hard contact. Over 142 at-bats vs Verlander, the Angels are hitting just .155 with a 36.6% strikeout rate. Although Trout is on fire right now, it’s interesting to note he’s just 5-34 (.147) against Verlander with 10 strikeouts. Verlander is expensive, but he can pay off that price tag.
Jon Lester (9.2k FD) (9k DK) @ CWS
Normally, I am not a fan of Lester, but this matchup is just too good to pass up. The White Sox look horrible against lefties lately and I definitely see the upside in Lester tonight. He has had upside this season and the last start he was amazing. He is our 2nd highest rated pitcher tonight and he’s not a horrible price either. There are a few things I love about this matchup. First, the White Sox have the highest strikeout rate in the MLB against LHP in the L14 days. That number is 35.2%. Their projected starting linups also has a 27.51% strikeout rate vs LHP while hitting for virtually no power and have an xwOBA of just .305. Lester has actually been a tad better on the road this season too and he’s done a bit better against RHP. All things are starting to align for Lester tonight. The Sox will likely toss out a ton of righties and Lester has been better against them. The more righties the better tonight. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I love Lester tonight.
Mike Fiers (7.8k FD) (8.4k DK) vs MIN
Love this spot for a low-owned Fiers tonight. Oakland is fighting to try and get home field for the WC game and the Twins have nothing to play for. Fiers has had 2 rough starts in his last 4 and I think that will keep his ownership down. Last time he faced the Twins he scored 41 fanduel points. He’s shown us upside this season and has multiple games where he’s scored more than 35 on fanduel. His strikeout rate is a bit low, but he only has a 5.4% walk rate which is very low. With a 1.17 WHIP, he’s a decent play in tournaments on DraftKings as well. Our projected lineup for the Twins right now has just a .283 xwOBA with a 22.07% strikeout rate. They also have just a .106 ISO. Fiers normally does not get blown up, now he can struggle, but he has been consistent of late. Of late, Fiers actually has a better xwOBA against left-handed hitters, so the more lefties the Twins want to throw out the better for Fiers. Solid tournament play tonight for me.
Patrick Corbin (9.8k FD) (10.4k DK) vs COL
Over the last two seasons, Corbin has pitched much better at home against the Rockies than in Coors, which is not surprising. Corbin grades out as our top pitcher on the day, but this matchup still is not cake. The Rockies have been pretty decent of late and haven’t been striking out a ton to lefties. He’s been around a strikeout per inning in the last two season vs COL at home which raises his upside. He is much cheaper than Verlander tonight and still has the 40+ point upside. Corbin also has a 31% strikeout rate this season and isn’t walking too many hitters either. Corbin does have one of the better SIERA’s on this slate at 2.85 and he does a good job getting 48% groundballs.
Others I’ll consider tonight:
Rich Hill: I hate how Dave Roberts doesn’t let him go too deep into games. He’s allowed at least 4 ER in each of his last 3 starts but has gotten 7 or 8 strikeouts in those starts. I don’t hate him tonight, but he’s not one of my core pitchers on this slate.
Mike Clevinger: this depends on the Red Sox lineup tonight. If we get a watered down Sox lineup I will like Clevinger. He’s been really good lately and has upside. I wouldn’t mind using him in large field tournaments even if they toss out their normal lineup. He should be lower owned too.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Justin Verlander
- Jon Lester
- Patrick Corbin
- Jose Urena
- Mike Fiers
QUICK PICK ON FANDUEL PITCHING TIER RANKS
TIER 1: Verlander, Corbin, Clevinger
2: Lester, Fiers, Urena, Minor
3: Barria, DeSclafani, Senzatela
Good Luck Everyone!