Welcome to the September 19th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel and DraftKings
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from both sites (Fanduel and Draftkings) Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
ALWAYS PAY ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER FROM OUR VERY OWN @DFSWEATHER IN SLACK!!!
Any updates will be given in our VIP Slack Channel! <– click here to see our pricing to get the whole VIP experience!
If you find yourself thinking, “what do some of these stats mean?” Check out my new definitions article HERE. I explain what each stat I use mean, and reasons why I use those stats in my articles!
BULLPEN REPORTS
**will be added later or posted in our VIP Slack Chat!
**Note, the rankings are all the way at the end of this article, don’t forget to scroll ALL the way to the end!**
Main Slate
**SEPTEMBER MLB NOTE: this time of year I think we need to lower our volume as MLB is crazy with September call ups and organizations trying to see what they have for next year. All of my plays will mainly be geared towards tournaments for the rest of the season**
Chris Archer (7.8k FD) (7.7k DK) vs KC
I loved me some Taillon last night and I’m going right back to the Pirates pitching tonight. Early on, the Royals are not even implied more than 3 runs and after Taillon mowed them down last night, I don’t think Archer should have too many issues. Archer has not been as good with the Pirates as I would have liked, but he has two starts in a row where he has done pretty well. Archer is actually our 2nd highest rated pitcher on the slate, and with his mid-tier pricing, I think he’s a great tournament play. As I said yesterday, the Royals do have some good young talents, but they still are facing top pitching right now. The Pirates are pretty much out of playoff contention and Archer still has 4 years left on his contract. They will want to see what he has for them as he will be a key in their rotation next season. Looking at his xwOBA numbers, it seems he is pitching better than his results are showing right now and what a perfect time to play the Royals. He does come into this game with a solid 24.6% strikeout rate and a 3.82 SIERA. We are not sure the status on Sal Perez, and outside of him and O’Hearn, the Royals have been just average. Their projected lineup is still striking out at a 23.61% clip also. Archer makes for a solid tournament play tonight.
Carlos Carrasco (11.2k FD) (11.1k DK) vs CWS
Well, I didn’t like Kluber much last night because I didn’t think he was going to go deep into the game, well that backfired and he tossed 8 amazing innings. It makes me believe that Francona is going to let his guys go as long as they can to tune them up for the playoffs. Like last night, the White Sox do not have great success against Carrasco. Over 161 at-bats, they are hitting just .193 with a 30.4% strikeout rate. Carrasco is our top-rated pitcher on this slate and I tend to agree, but I do like some lower priced options a bit more. He’s expensive, so it could hurt you in getting bats you want.
As you see the White Sox projected lineup does not look that scary vs RHP. Carrasco has been dominant this season and there’s nothing telling me that he won’t pitch well again tonight.
Cole Hamels (8.8k FD) (9.6k DK) @ ARI
After the Diamondbacks absolutely crushed me last night, I hate to pick on them again, but Hamels is a much better pitcher than they saw last night. They showed they struggled to hit the lefty last night and Hamels is coming off a solid start vs the Reds. Their projected lineup looks solid, but they still are a very hit or miss team. Hamels looks like he’s getting a tad lucky with a 0.066 wOBA-xwOBA difference, but he’s not getting hit too hard and has been able to limit the damage. Since coming over to the Cubbies, he’s been spectacular and has not allowed more than 3 runs in any start. While his strikeout numbers can fluctuate, I think he’s still good for 30+ points here tonight.
Robbie Ray (8.7k FD) (9.2k DK) vs CHC
After last night, where the Cubs just kept on scoring, this may keep Ray’s ownership down. He’s a solid price on both sites for the upside he brings to the table. He has an amazing 30.9% strikeout rate this season but has struggled with walks (12.8% walk rate). When he’s on though, he’s very good and can grab a 40/20 point game. Over the L45 days, Ray has a very good .298 xwOBA and has been dominant to lefties. In a small sample, the Cubs don’t have too much success against him, and their projected lineup looks pretty bad against lefties of late.
Yes, they are not striking out much, but they really aren’t doing anything else either. This is a rather low xwOBA and wOBA for a team like the Cubs, and we pick on them when they are struggling. The problem with Ray is, we never know which one is going to show up. Let’s hope tonight it’s the shutdown version of Robbie Ray.
Walker Buehler (9.4k FD) (11.3k DK) vs COL
What a price difference on the sites. He’s a much better value on fanduel tonight, but the high price tag could lower his ownership on DraftKings. It seems like none of the Rockies grade out too well tonight and Buehler has been simply amazing for the Dodgers. Walker is our 3rd highest ranked pitcher tonight and pitching in the late game will lower his ownership alone. The projected lineup for the Rockies does not look horrible, but Buehler has been great of late pitching to a .257 xwOBA, and that number is helped by an amazing .234 xwOBA to RHH. With an elite 28% strikeout rate and a low 6.6% walk rate, Buehler has been a reliable arm for the Dodgers. It seems like Roberts is letting him throw too when he’s throwing well. He has at least 6 innings in 7 of his last 9 starts and has been able to grab 7-9 strikeouts in most of those starts. Aside from his last start @ COL, he hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER since July 25th. This is a huge game for the Dodgers as they need to keep winning to lock up the NL East in what could run to the last game of the season.
Others I’ll consider tonight:
Tyler Anderson (@LAD)
Felix Pena (@ OAK, SP2 ONLY)
Luis Severino (vs BOS, big game for him, needs to pitch well, but tends to struggle vs BOS)
Chris Stratton (@ SDP)/Robbie Erlin (vs SF) both offenses are not that good, but these pitchers are not that good either. I see this game going either way tonight.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
1. Carlos Carrasco
2. Walker Buehler
3. Robbie Ray
4. Chris Archer
5. Cole Hamels
QUICK PICK ON FANDUEL PITCHING TIER RANKS
TIER 1: Carrasco, Buehler, Severino, Price
2: Ray, Hamels, Keuchel, Pena
3: Archer, Stratton, Gonzalez, Harvey
4: Anderson, Estrada, Erlin
Good Luck Everyone!