Welcome to the September 18th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel and DraftKings
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
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I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from both sites (Fanduel and Draftkings) Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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BULLPEN REPORTS
**Note, the rankings are all the way at the end of this article, don’t forget to scroll ALL the way to the end!**
Main Slate
Tonight’s slate is LOADED compared to last night for pitching, so let’s get right to it! Any screenshots of the DFS Army’s Lineup Page are all projections as of 1:15 pm! Confirmed lineups could be different. To get the stats for the confirmed lineups, join the DFS Army and check the lineups page later on! Code DFSMATT saves you 10%!
Aaron Nola (10.7k FD) (10.9k DK) vs NYM
It’s a NOLA DAY! Seems like every day he starts I use him because his upside is just unreal and he has a great history against the Mets. As a team, they have 116 at-bats against him with just a .164 batting average and a 32.7% strikeout rate. The Mets are actually playing some good baseball right now, but when they have to face Nola, good luck. I hope his last start will lower his ownership because he has 50/30 point upside in this matchup tonight. Before his last start, he had a string of good games and will continue that tonight. The Phillies are still playing meaningful baseball and that should motivate Nola a bit more tonight. The Phillies also have an amazing matchup against Matz. I love Nola for a win and QS tonight and can see him getting 7+ strikeouts tonight. As you see below, there are strikeouts to be had in this lineup with what we have projected them is a 24.09% strikeout rate.
Jameson Taillon (9.4k FD) (9.2k DK) vs KC
Here’s a pitcher who will be virtually unowned with the loaded pitching we have on this slate tonight. Tonight is a great MME slate in my opinion as we have tons of great pitching options to choose from.
As you see, Taillon is the 6th highest priced on Fanduel tonight and for the people who don’t use any of the top 5, they will likely go even lower and skip over Taillon. Kansas City has been pretty good lately, but Taillon can shut them down tonight too. Taillon has been very good of late and has been a consistent 30+ point fanduel scorer this season. Taillon has shown us that he can grab 6+ strikeouts in some matchups and the Royals are striking out at a 22% clip to RHP of late. He has also has allowed the 6th lowest Hard contact on the slate this season. I do like the young Royals and think they have a bright future, but I favor Taillon tonight in this matchup.
Our very own Thunder Dan has said not to pick on the Royals, but a pitcher like Taillon can slow them down. Right now, they are implied just 3.01 runs and besides O’Hearn and Perez, they look pretty average. They still have a high strikeout rate at 23.61% and Taillon can grab a few extra strikeouts.
Stephen Strasburg (11k FD) (10.2k DK) @ MIA
The Washington Nationals need to win games to close out the season. The chances to make the playoffs are pretty low, but they still want to get wins right now. Strasburg finally pitched well in his last start and MIA had one good inning of Fedde last night then beat up the bullpen of the Nats. They used 6 guys out of the bullpen last night, granted not many pitched too long, but they will want Strasburg to go deep into this game if he can. Walks killed Fedde last night as well but he did get 6 K’s in 4.2 innings. The Marlins are still striking out a ton vs RHP (28.4%) which is the most in the MLB. They also have the lowest xwOBA vs RHP in the last 2 weeks at just .290. Small samples favor Strasburg in this matchup tonight and the Marlins projected starting lineup does not look the best.
As you see they…look like garbage of late. Their projected lineup above grades out awfully and they have just a .302 xwOBA. Strasburg seems to be healthy again and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him grab 40/25+ tonight!
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Blake Snell (11.7k FD) (12.1k DK) @ TEX
Man, Snell is expensive tonight. I get that, but I love him tonight. If people are paying up they will probably just go to Kluber (who I don’t hate but I’ll talk about that later). The Rays are playing for nothing for the rest of the season so they should let their young Ace fire as much as he can in his last 2 starts of the season. There is no cap for his ceiling right now and he does have a good matchup. Texas has a bunch of powerful LEFT handed hitters, where Snell can easily shut them all down. Snell actually has the best strikeout rate on the slate today at 30.7% and he has a WHIP of just 0.98. It is a tougher matchup for Snell, but he has proven this season that he can pitch against anyone (except my Yanks :p). Snell has one of the better SIERA’s on this slate tonight as well and Texas is projected to have 5 lefties in their lineup tonight. He has at least 8 strikeouts in his last 5 starts and during that stretch, he has 3 50 point fanduel games. I love Snell in all formats and hope people are off him at this high price tag.
As you see above, there are holes in this lineup for the Rangers. They still are striking out a ton and Snell has elite upside. Their actual lineup may feature fewer lefties, but regardless, I love Snell anyways.
Clayton Kershaw (11.5k FD) (11.3k DK) vs COL
The Rockies have actually looked pretty good lately, but this game is going to be down to the wire as this NL East race couldn’t get much closer. The Dodgers have been crushing Lefties just like the Rockies have, but Kershaw is well Kershaw. He has gone 6 innings in every start since July and has been steady getting 7-9 strikeouts per start. Over his last 45 days, Kershaw has just a .264 xwOBA while allowing just an average of 87 MPH EV. Kershaw has a ton of history against the Rockies and has always been able to pitch better against them at home. This season against the Rockies, Kershaw has surprisingly only faced them one time. That time he was in Coors and he scored us 43 fanduel points. There are a ton of aces tonight, and I will have exposure to nearly all of them.
Joey Lucchesi (7.5k FD) (7.6k DK) vs SF
Oh hey, a starter against the Giants. I had to look into him a bit longer because I wanted to make sure that he will go long enough in this game. I actually don’t mind him if he can go 6 innings tonight. Normally he’s around 5-6 innings and I would love for him to go 6 to get the QS tonight.
This is the exact reason I want to target the Giants. Besides hitting just .155 with a .290 xwOBA vs LHP in the L14, they also have the highest strikeout rate in the MLB as a team at 34.9%. Their team stats aren’t any better than what we have their projected lineup at. This kid has a very bright future. He comes into this start with a very good 25.4% strikeout rate and 3.78 SIERA. He’s a very solid SP2 and great mid-tier play because this matchup is perfect for him.
Others I’ll consider tonight:
Corey Kluber (I don’t love him because he’s so expensive tonight, and the Indians don’t have anything to play for, but if you want to use him I wouldn’t argue with you).
Carlos Rodon (has a good history against CLE).
Sandy Alcantara (another kid with a bright future, I don’t like his inconsistency and command issues but he has upside and if he can learn to put hitters away he will see his strikeout numbers increase).
Derek Holland (always seems to preform when people want to stack against him. Back to back 40 point games make me really like him. SD isn’t a great offense, but their numbers do not look as bad as they have been this season. If you are going to MME, I love using Holland in a few lineups).
Kyle Freeland (this game is like a playoff game, both pitchers need to pitch well).
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Blake Snell (all formats)
- Aaron Nola (all formats)
- Stephen Strasburg (all formats)
- Clayton Kershaw (lean GPP tonight)
- Jameson Taillon (lean GPP)
- Joey Lucchesi (GPP)
QUICK PICK ON FANDUEL PITCHING TIER RANKS
TIER 1: Snell, Nola, Strasburg, Kershaw, Kluber
2: Taillon, Freeland, Rodon, Holland
3: Lucchesi, Alcantara, Sanchez
4: Odorizzi, Bundy
Good Luck Everyone!