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Painting the Black with Mdell: MLB DFS Main Slate Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel and Draftkings!

Welcome to the September 17th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel and DraftKings

In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.

I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!

I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from both sites (Fanduel and Draftkings) Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.

Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!

NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!

ALWAYS PAY ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER FROM OUR VERY OWN @DFSWEATHER IN SLACK!!!

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If you find yourself thinking, “what do some of these stats mean?” Check out my new definitions article HERE. I explain what each stat I use mean, and reasons why I use those stats in my articles!

BULLPEN REPORTS

**Note, the rankings are all the way at the end of this article, don’t forget to scroll ALL the way to the end!**

Main Slate

Zack Wheeler (10.4k FD) (10.5k DK) @ PHI

The most expensive pitcher on Fanduel tonight is Zack Wheeler. He’s a discount from the top two guys over on DraftKings, but he’s in a great spot. Recently, Wheeler has been the #2 guy for the Mets after deGrom. Looking at our lineups page and RS, Wheeler looks amazing tonight. He has the 3rd highest DFSA Grade, and the Phillies are graded out lowest on the slate. Wheeler has only scored under 40 fanduel points ONE time since July 29th (9 starts) and that was the only game he went less than 6 innings. In that span, (approx. 45 days), he has the best xwOBA on the slate at .228 and has shown strikeout upside this season with a 24.5% strikeout rate. Normally, he doesn’t allow many hits and has been able to consistently have 7+ strikeouts per start. He also has not allowed more than 3 ER in any start over his last 9 starts. The Phillies come into this game with a team strikeout rate of 23.2% against RHP over their L14 and have an average .321 xwOBA. I am weary a bit of this matchup on the road, but Wheeler is an excellent play tonight in all formats and has shown he is consistent as it comes.

Erick Fedde (6.2k FD) (5.3k DK) @ MIA

Fedde presents great value tonight in a wonderful matchup. Nowadays in MLB we should be playing lower volume and more on the tournament side as the edge in cash games is not huge anymore. Fedde has shown some upside of late and was amazing in his last start against the Phillies. Fedde has been pretty good in his last two starts as well and his strikeout numbers have been very good. When he first came up, he was giving up a ton of hits which would limit his DK upside, but over his last 3 outings, he’s allowed just 8 hits in 11.2 innings while striking out 15. In the minors this season he was getting a very good 9.36 K/9 while having a low 6% walk rate. Fedde has been able to get 54% groundballs in the big leagues so far and actually has a pretty good SIERA at 3.87. This matchup against the Marlins is also a good one. Over the L14 vs RHP, the Marlins have the highest strikeout rate in the league at 28.5%, which brings Fedde’s upside up a ton. They also are hitting just .211 as a team with a 61 wRC+, a .256 wOBA and a .276 xwOBA. Their projected lineup looks like the following…

As you see, we have them projected to throw out 6 righties, 2 lefties, and the pitcher spot. Fedde has allowed just a .203 xwOBA to LHH over the last 45 days and his xwOBA to RHH is a bit higher at .327. He has gotten 8% more strikeouts against righties though and the Marlins have shown to strikeout a ton lately. He’s cheap and allows you to get some good bats in your lineups. Great tournament play in a great park as well.

Wade Miley (7.5k FD) (7.2k DK) vs CIN

Miley is not an exciting pitcher, but he’s been effective. All season (not as many starts as others because he was hurt), he has not allowed more than 3 ER in any start. He also has faced this Reds team twice this year and did well both times against them. Strikeouts are pretty tough to find for Miley, but he still has found ways to score 30+ on fanduel. He’s definitely more of a fanduel play for me tonight because he can give up some hits, and has had some problems with walks in a few starts. Despite that, he has been able to pitch deep into some games, especially against the Reds. In 13.1 innings, he’s allowed just 8 hits while striking out 10 hitters. The Reds don’t have great grades on Miley tonight and he’s allowing an xwOBA under .300 over the L45 days. He’s been getting groundballs which is helping him be effective (52.7% GB rate). Over the L14 vs LHP, the Reds have been striking out a TON. They have a 30.4% strikeout rate in that span and they have seen the most lefties in the span in the MLB. They can hit lefties, but they haven’t shown they can really hit Miley yet this year. Large field GPP play only though and more on FD than DK.

Patrick Corbin (10k FD) (11.9k DK) vs CHC

Likely the chalk of the slate tonight and he does grade out as our top pitcher according to the RS. The Cubs have been horrible lately against lefties and Corbin has been amazing all season for the Diamondbacks. Corbin comes into this start with just a .275 xwOBA in his L45 and he’s sported a 31.1% strikeout rate this season. He normally doesn’t walk many hitters and doesn’t allow many home runs. He gets hit hard, but he’s also a groundball pitcher and normally they do get hit hard. Corbin has one of the best SIERA’s in the league at 2.84 and has been really good at home. The Cubbies come into this game with a 28.8% strikeout rate against LHP and are hitting below .200. They also have the 2nd lowest xwOBA vs LHP of late too at just .233. Corbin is an excellent play tonight.

Mike Foltynewicz (9.8k FD) (10.8k DK) vs STL

A bit more expensive then I would like, but he’s still the 3rd cheapest on fanduel tonight. Folty has been really good all season for the Braves and on a slate with not many great options, he is a safe one. He’s been pretty consistent all season and has gone 6+ innings in each of his last 6 starts. He has a great 27.5% strikeout rate on the season to go along with his 3.70 SIERA. The Cardinals have been striking out vs RHP lately at a 25% clip and the Braves are looking to lock up the NL East sooner rather than later. The projected lineup for the Cards also doesn’t look that great right now. Their xwOBA is a bit higher than their actual wOBA, but they still have a low .102 ISO. Folty can rack up strikeouts in a hurry and definitely has 50 point upside. Between him and Corbin, they will be two of my highest owned tonight.

Bryan Mitchell (5.9k FD) (5.9k DK) vs SF

Hear me out on this one. I know Mitchell is not the best out there, but he does have a great matchup and has been better in his last two starts. Since coming off the DL, he’s made two starts and allowed just 2 ER in 11 innings. He’s not a big strikeout guy, but the Giants are striking out a ton. Don’t go crazy using him, but at his price, we don’t need a whole lot out of him. If you are MME or playing a large field GPPs, he could be worth a shot there. We have them projected for 6 lefties in their lineup tonight along with the pitcher’s spot. He’s actually been better against lefties this season too. Against RHP, their lineup looks BAD. They have just a .289 xwOBA with a 25.24% strikeout rate. Here check for yourself.

Yes, they do grade out pretty well, and using some of these as one-off’s is not a bad idea or even mini stacks. BUT, we are playing to win here. If Mitchell gives us 25 or so on fanduel that is plenty for his price given the bats we will be able to get. The Giants have not looked great lately either. Mitchell has gotten a bit lucky his last two starts with low BABIP numbers, but he’s also gotten about a 45% groundball rate. As I said, don’t go crazy using him, but he’s cheap if you want to throw a dart in there.

 

MAIN SLATE RANKINGS 

  1. Patrick Corbin (all formats)
  2. Mike Foltynewciz (all formats)
  3. Zack Wheeler (all formats)
  4. Erick Fedde (GPP)
  5. Wade Miley (GPP)
  6. Bryan Mitchell (LARGE FIELD GPP ONLY, don’t go crazy here, HUGE risk)

QUICK PICK ON FANDUEL PITCHING TIER RANKS

TIER 1: Corbin, Folty, Wheeler

2: Hendricks, Arrieta, Gray, Ryu

3: Miley, LeBlanc, Mikolas, Valdez, Zimmermann, Suarez

4: Fedde, Mitchell, Glasnow, Borucki (watch weather)

Good Luck Everyone!