Welcome to the September 12th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel and DraftKings
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from both sites (Fanduel and Draftkings) Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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BULLPEN REPORTS
**Note, the rankings are all the way at the end of this article, don’t forget to scroll ALL the way to the end!**
Main Slate
Aaron Nola (11.2k FD) (11.8k DK) vs WSH
Not an easy task for Nola to perform up to his salary tonight. He’s the most expensive pitcher on Fanduel and 2nd highest on DraftKings tonight. I do love how well he’s pitched all year and against the Nationals. Nola has 4 starts against the Nationals this season, which could be good or bad. They have seen him a lot, but he’s dominated them all season long. He’s 3-0 with a 1.26 ERA and has 30 strikeouts in 28.2 innings. Nola is very consistent and can normally be counted on for 6+ innings every start. He has been able to lower his HR/9 this season down to 0.62 while maintaining a 26.6% strikeout rate and lowering his WHIP under 1.00. With a 3.41 SIERA, a 25.2% Hard%, and 50% ground ball rate, Nola is as elite as they come. Accompanying his high strikeout rate is a wonderful 12.1% SwStr%. His curveball is absolutely amazing and he has a fastball with tons of life. Harper hits Nola the best on this Nationals team, but other than that he has been crushing the Nationals all season. As a team, they are hitting just .220 against Nola with a very high 33.5% strikeout rate. He’s expensive but has proven that he can pay off the price tag. If there is enough value out there, Nola is in play in all formats.
David Price (9.7k FD) (9.1k DK) vs TOR
David Price is very hard to figure out in the DFS World. A lot of games are okay, but then he likes to explode for a near negative score. This matchup with Toronto is not the best one, but after striking out 10 in his last start against Houston I am encouraged. Aside from his start against the Marlins, Price has been consistently scoring over 40/20 fanduel/draftkings points. In his last 9 starts, He has all but 4 games under 40 fanduel points and has pitched against some really good offenses. Price has continued his August success into his first September start and will look to keep it rolling against a Blue Jays team who has a very high 27% strikeout rate to lefties in the last 2 weeks. Price has pitched a bit better at home this season and has been lights out in the second half. He has increased his strikeout rate by 2.4% and has lowered his walks by 3.1% and those two are definitely helping his success. I’m not sure I would use him much in cash games because Toronto has been pretty good lately, but he’s a great tournament play tonight.
Carlos Rodon (8.6k FD) (8.3k DK) @ KC
Rodon is a very nice price tonight and he’s one of my favorite mid-tier pitchers tonight. The Royals are pretty hot coming into this game and I think that will suppress his ownership. Against lefties though, they have a very high 28% strikeout rate. That could be good for Rodon as we really want strikeouts to excel his fantasy production. Rodon grades out as our 4th best pitch today, but I think he should be bumped a bit more considering the people above him are in bad spots. Severino has struggled mightily since the All-Star break, Strasburg has seen a large velocity decrease since he got back from the DL, and Corbin is @ Coors. Looking at how the opponents are vs Hand of starter, Rodon definitely looks the best. He has had a rough couple of starts against Boston and LA, but before that, he rolled off 9 straight 30 point fanduel games. He hasn’t been getting the strikeouts that I like, but the matchup is good for him. This is a good ballpark for Rodon to pitch in and I think he bounces back tonight.
Luis Severino (10k FD) (9.4k DK) @ MIN
Now, I know I just bashed on him a bit above, but after looking at the lineups page, it’s hard to not consider him tonight. The Twins exploded last night and Severino has been bad, so his ownership will likely be lower. Right now, I don’t trust him in cash games, but he does make for an excellent tournament play tonight. Against RHP over the last two weeks, the Twins projected starting lineup does not look good. They only have 2 hitters who have over a .300 xwOBA and as a projected lineup is just .283. They also are striking out a bunch too with a 24.73% strikeout rate. He has a high xwOBA and getting hit pretty hard of late and that’s why he can’t be trusted in cash games right now. He has really bad numbers in the 2nd half, but he’s actually still getting a 28% strikeout rate and has lowered his walks a bit. Severino is giving up more hits though, and that is worrisome. Watching some of his starts, he’s been throwing the ball up in the zone and that is a reason for his decreased ground ball rate. To return to form, Severino needs to get better with his command and keep the ball low. With a lower price, I do think he’s a decent tournament play tonight though.
Felix Pena (7.1k FD) (6.3k DK) vs TEX
Pena has actually been bad at home, but this matchup could potentially be a good one. Pena has been pretty good of late, going at least 6 innings in each of his last 5 starts. He can tend to struggle against lefties and the Rangers have a ton of them they can throw out at him tonight. Pena has shown us some strikeout upside but also has been bad in some starts. Over his last 5 games though, he has scored at least 28 fanduel points and his high was 43 (twice). He’s cheap on both sites and he brings that high strikeout upside against Texas who has a 21.4% strikeout rate to RHP of late. That isn’t that high, but they do have strikeouts in that lineup. The bottom half of their projected lineup (7-8-9 hitters) all have over a 29% strikeout rate. Even if he gets 2/3 strikeouts there, he can still end with 4-6 and maybe grab a couple others on the way. His xwOBA is not horrible in his last 45 days either at just .309. Pena is a pure large field GPP play tonight, but he can pop off and score some good fantasy points.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Aaron Nola (all formats)
- David Price (lean GPP, cash viable tonight though)
- Carlos Rodon (great SP2 option, GPP on FD)
- Luis Severino (horrible recent form, but good matchup)
- Felix Pena (GPP)
QUICK PICK ON FANDUEL PITCHING TIER RANKS
TIER 1: Nola, Price, Severino
2: Rodon, Hendricks, Strasburg, Corbin
3: Pena, Gray, Odorizzi, Anderson
Good Luck Everyone!