Welcome to the September 11th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel and DraftKings
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from both sites (Fanduel and Draftkings) Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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If you find yourself thinking, “what do some of these stats mean?” Check out my new definitions article HERE. I explain what each stat I use mean, and reasons why I use those stats in my articles!
BULLPEN REPORTS
**Note, the rankings are all the way at the end of this article, don’t forget to scroll ALL the way to the end!**
Main Slate
Jacob deGrom vs MIA
Well, it looks like the weather is going to be better in the Northeast tonight, making deGrom the top option on this main slate tonight. deGrom is having a Cy Young type season, too bad it’s going to waste because the Mets are having an awful season. He comes into this start against Miami with a 31.3% strikeout rate and a tiny 5.7% walk rate. Can you believe that he’s only given up 9 home runs ALL SEASON?! The man has just a 1.68 ERA with a wonderful 2.90 SIERA. He never gets hit hard (28% Hard%) and he’s been getting a 45% ground ball rate. Strikeouts are no problem for Jacob as he has at least 9 strikeouts in 7 of his last 9 starts and has scored 50+ fanduel points in 5 of his last 9 and 40+ in 7 of his last 9. He’s a stud on DK as well scoring at least 30 DK points in 5 of his last 9 and at least 27 in 6 of his last 9. deGrom has only allowed more than 3 ER in a start one time this year and has 24 quality starts in 28 total starts. The Marlins come into this game with a 22.4% strikeout rate vs RHP in their last 14 vs RHP. They do have a high xwOBA (3rd highest in L14), but deGrom is deGrom and he will find a way to shut them down. Definitely the top option tonight and the chalk of the night.
Brad Keller (7.6k FD) (5.7k DK) vs CWS
DraftKings doesn’t seem to like Keller at all tonight considering they priced him this low. He’s very cheap, but why? He has scored at least 30 fanduel points in 6 of his last 9 starts, including a 44 against these White Sox at the beginning of August. Keller isn’t a big strikeout guy, but he’s been pretty consistent getting 4-5 per start. He is a bit riskier on DK tonight because he has been giving up a ton of hits, but still has had some decent fantasy outputs over there. The White Sox have not looked lately as they come into this game with the 6th highest strikeout rate at 24.7% with a wRC+ of 83 and wOBA of .291. If you look at our lineups page, their starting projected lineup has just a .312 xwOBA with a very high 24% strikeout rate. They also do not grade out that well and only have 1 hitter above a 70 DFSA Grade. Keller comes into this game with a pretty good .315 xwOBA over the last 45 days and has been very good against RHH. The more righties they toss out, the more I like Keller for tournaments.
Mike Foltynewicz (10.2k FD) (11.2k DK) @ SFG
Now, I’ll start off by saying that Folty is very expensive. I get that, but here is where Dan and I disagree tonight. Folty has arguably one of the best matchups on the board tonight and we cannot miss this. Sean Newcomb had a game last night, and Folty has been much more consistent than Newcomb this year. First with Foltynewicz’s stats. He comes into this one with a 27.8% strikeout rate with a 1.12 WHIP and allowing a .200 average. He grades out pretty good at an 81.7 DFSA Grade and the matchup is perfect. Now he moves to a wonderful pitcher’s park against a Giants team who looks like a minor league team right now. They come into this game with just a .291 xwOBA and .106 ISO, with a sky-high 26.65% strikeout rate against RHP. Folty has been very consistent this season and has gone at least 6 innings in 6 of his last 7 starts and only has 1 starts in the past 7 where he scored under 34 fanduel points. I love Folty in all formats tonight and he’ll be lower owned because people are just going to pay up to deGrom, which is smart. That does not mean Folty is not a good pivot in tournaments.
Sonny Gray (6.9k FD) (7.8k DK) @ MIN
Now, I’m a bit of a Gray homer. I like the kid and really want him to succeed in New York. First off, he’s very cheap tonight for tournaments and he’s not starting at home. He has been much better away from Yankee Stadium this year. He has allowed just a .270 wOBA on the road compared to .400 at home and also has almost a 4 run ERA difference. No one is going to play Gray tonight and if you are playing multiple lineups, I would have a couple shares of Gray as he has had 40+ point upside when he starts on the road. Out of the pen in the last 45 days, Gray has a decent .311 xwOBA and the Twins have not been the best vs RHP. Looking at our starting lineups page, they have just a .283 xwOBA with a 24.73% strikeout rate and .116 ISO. They also have 7 hitters with an xwOBA under .300 and they aren’t hitting for much power yet. Gray will be virtually un-owned on this slate but I would have a couple shares of him.
Mike Fiers (7.6k DK) (9.4k DK) @ BAL
If you don’t feel comfortable with Gray or Keller, why not look at Fiers? Especially on DK when he’s still under 8k. He’s had 1 bad start over his last 6 starts and has done amazing since coming over to the A’s. The A’s are still pushing for that final wildcard spot and need their pitching to be great down the stretch. He has been really good in the 2nd half with a 2.63 ERA and allowing just a .293 wOBA. Fiers is not a high strikeout guy, but he has a great matchup with the Orioles tonight. After hitting a hot stretch, the Orioles projected lineup doesn’t look good. Over their L14 vs RHP, they have just a .310 xwOBA, .112 ISO and high 24.95% strikeout rate. Fiers has changed it up and has actually increased his strikeout rate by 7% in the 2nd half. He also has been getting 44.4% groundballs in the 2nd half which is helping him pitch deeper into games. When he is on, he is very good and has 40+ point upside. I love this play for tournaments tonight and he’ll be lower owned too because people don’t like to play Fiers.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Jacob deGrom (all formats)
- Mike Foltynewicz (all formats)
- Mike Fiers (GPP)
- Brad Keller (GPP)
- Sonny Gray (GPP)
QUICK PICK ON FANDUEL PITCHING TIER RANKS
TIER 1: deGrom, Foltynewicz
2: Fiers, Quintana, Chacin, Musgrove
3: Keller, Gray, Gonzales (TIERS ONLY for me!)
4: Borucki, Covey, Glasnow
Tier 4 is pretty rough today, all are very risky.
Good Luck Everyone!