In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all both sites (Fanduel and Draftkings) Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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BULLPEN REPORTS
**Note, the rankings are all the way at the end of this article, don’t forget to scroll ALL the way to the end!**
Main Slate
Corey Kluber (12.3k FD) (11.1k DK) @ TB
I love both of the high priced guys tonight, but it looks like we have some major weather issues in New York with deGrom, so Kluber is going to be my top tier pitcher tonight. Since there are weather problems in NY, Kluber will likely be the chalk on both sites tonight. He gets a wonderful matchup against the Rays who he just dominated a couple starts back. Fanduel has him priced up a bit more than DraftKings does, but he’s still able to put up 50/30 points anytime he takes the hill. Kluber is our 2nd highest rated pitcher tonight, only to deGrom who has weather issues. His last two starts have looked much better than his previous two which is uplifting for him and for us DFS players. Two starts allowing just 1 ER in 13.2 innings with 18 strikeouts really helps his value. Last time against the Rays he went 7 innings, striking out 8 and getting the win and QS. The Rays are projected just over 3 runs tonight and grade out as one of the lowest grades on this slate. Over the last 45 days, Kluber has been pretty good, even though he’s had some rough fantasy outputs. We have the Rays projected for 6-7 lefties tonight and we see Kluber has allowed just a .298 xwOBA against them and has actually struck out 28% of lefties this season, a 5% increase from righties. Klubot is the chalk pitcher tonight, there is another pitcher that I really like that no one loves to play who is a wonderful pivot off the chalk. I’ll get to him later, but Kluber is still a fantastic play tonight and should continue to put up good numbers.
German Marquez (9k FD) (9k DK) vs ARI
Yup, here he is. I love Marquez and the industry does not. He used to have his struggles in Coors, but that was WAY earlier in the season. He has actually been one of the most consistent fantasy pitchers in the league of late. Marquez has not scored fewer than 40 fanduel points and 20 DraftKings points since his July 20th start @ ARI. Well, little do most people know, the start before that one he dominated the Diamondbacks…IN COORS. Don’t hit me with the “he’s pitching in Coors I won’t use him” Get that out of your head now, because when a good pitcher is pitching like this, who cares where he’s throwing. Marquez’s strikeout numbers have been absolutely insane of late. He has 24 strikeouts in his last two starts and normally gets at least 7 in a game. He has a great 26.6% strikeout rate this season and is only walking about 2-3 hitters per 9 innings which is fantastic. With one of the best SIERA’s on the slate, he’s one of my favorite options tonight. Pitching in Coors you want to keep the ball on the ground, and Marquez does a great job at doing that with a 47.2% groundball rate. The first game in Coors is usually lower scoring than most and the Diamondbacks have not been the best lately. Looking at their projected lineup, they have just a .311 xwOBA with a 22.61% strikeout rate. As a team over the L14 vs RHP, they still have a 22% strikeout rate, hitting just .202 with virtually no power (ISO of 0.88). People are going to see this game is in Coors and see that Arizona has a good history against Marquez, but that was before he changed things around. He’s my favorite tournament play tonight and I don’t think it’s crazy to use him in cash games tonight.
J.A. Happ (10.4k FD) (9.3k DK) @ MIN
Happy is a bit expensive today, but there aren’t that many pitchers that I really feel confident in. He’s really only had 1 bad start with the Yankees, and other than that he’s been very good. I am worried that his strikeout numbers are fluctuating lately, where he can go out and toss 8+ strikeouts or have 3-4. The Twins are not that bad of late, but Happ did a great job limiting the A’s in his last start. Over their L14 vs LHP, they don’t have a high strikeout rate, but they are hitting just .216 with a .112 ISO and 74 wRC+. Their xwOBA numbers look much better than their wOBA, but Happ has proven he can go out and dominate. Their projected starting lineup has had just about no power of late and has a 22.31% strikeout rate, with two guys having over a 30% strikeout rate. Happ is usually safe for 30+ on fanduel, but with that steep salary, we want more than that. In 84 career at-bats against Happ, the Twins roster has just a .238 average, but a decent .325 wOBA and they also have a 25% strikeout rate against him. I think he can do that tonight but will be cash only for me tonight as I don’t think he has 45+ point upside tonight.
Jake Junis (7.9k FD) (8.5k DK) vs CWS
This play is strictly GPP tonight. Junis has been on a rollercoaster ride this year but has been very good of late. He has not allowed more than 2 ER since the beginning of August and has faced some pretty good offenses. Since August 1, he has been between 5-8 strikeouts per start and only had 1 where he gave up more than 6 hits. His last 2 starts against Cleveland and Detroit he put up 49 and 52 fanduel points. If he was able to get a few more outs in starts before that he would have rolled off 5 straight quality starts, but unfortunately, he was not able to get out of the 6th inning. Over the last 45 days, Junis has just a .318 xwOBA allowed, which is still below the league average and isn’t getting hit very hard either with an aEV of just 86.5 MPH. The Royals have actually been swinging hot bats of late, so I do think he has the better chance of the win tonight. Coming into this game, the White Sox have just a .309 xwOBA with a very high 25.7% strikeout rate. In their projected starting lineup there are 6 hitters who have had over a 25% strikeout rate against RHP in the L14. I do wish he was a tad cheaper, but he’s been good for 25+ fanduel points since the beginning of August, and I think he does have a good shot at 30+ here tonight. He doesn’t walk many hitters, but he can struggle and give up a bunch of hits. That hinders his DK value a little, but he still has 4 starts with over 20 DK points in his last 6 starts. GPP only though on both sites tonight.
Lucas Giolito (8k FD) (4.7k DK) @ KC
Now, look at the price difference. He’s practically free on DraftKings and I’m not really sure why. Unless fanduel is messing up and pricing him too high. He hasn’t been that bad of late either, racking up at least 37 fanduel points over his last 5 starts and over his last 45 days, he has an xwOBA of just .311. The Royals have been striking out more than usual of late against righties at 23.8%. Giolito has a really bad strikeout rate, but he can pop off for a few extra. He has at least 6 strikeouts in 6 of his last 7 starts though. Last time he faced these Royals he popped off for 47 fanduel points with 6 strikeouts in that game. Luckily for him, 3 of his best games of late have been on the road, and he’s actually been a much better road pitcher this season. As a team, the Royals have a small sample size against him, but they are only hitting .170 across 47 at-bats. Not the whole roster has seen him, but the majority of their offense has. It’s good to note, Merrifield who will likely lead off is 0-8 with 4 strikeouts against Giolito. It will be key for him to keep the leadoff guy off the bases. I’m not touching him on fanduel, but on DK he’s a decent SP2 for tournaments at such a cheap price.
Jaime Barria (7.3k FD) (7.4k DK) vs TEX
The Rangers are not the same team on the road as they are at home. In this price range, just use Barria over Giolito and if you need the savings, he’s not a bad pivot from Junis either. Again, this is another tournament only play because he’s not particularly safe. He has been really good of late, aside from one start against Houston. He just stifled these Rangers in 5 innings last start, good for 36/22.25 FD/DK fantasy points. Not a big strikeout guy, but if he is able to get about 5 tonight and go 6+ with a quality start, that could shoot up his fantasy points. The Rangers have been good of late and that will scare people off using Barria, but they still have a 22% strikeout rate in the L14. In 71 at-bats against Barria, the Rangers are hitting just .183 with a .241 wOBA and .056 ISO with a 26.7% strikeout rate. Barria also has been better in the 2nd half so far, allowing a .300 wOBA and has only allowed 4 home runs in 45.2 innings pitched. Despite some rough numbers, Barria has a .290 xwOBA over the last 45 days and has been pretty solid lately. I don’t expect him to fire a shutout with a ton of strikeouts, but I think he’s good for another solid start against a team he has been able to limit so far in his early career.
Sean Newcomb (6.9k FD) (7.3k DK) @ SFG
What a wonderful matchup for Newcomb tonight in a great ballpark. Newcomb has been so hit or miss this season. But he’s really cheap and has the 40+ point upside we are looking for in tournaments. Against LHP in the L14, the Giants have been one of the absolute worst teams in baseball. They have the highest strikeout rate at 37.3% and are hitting a measly .171 with a wOBA of .220 and wRC+ of only 36. Their projected lineup does not look any better folks. They only have 1 hitter who has an xwOBA over .300, and their projected 9 have just a .232 xwOBA with a .109 ISO and 22.65% strikeout rate. They are not looking good lately and I will keep using pitchers against them. Newcomb has shown upside this season and he does have a solid 22% strikeout rate. He doesn’t allow many home runs, but that won’t really be a factor in this game tonight. Recent game log watchers will look at him and say “no way”. This is the perfect spot to jump back on him. After Marquez, he’s my favorite tournament play tonight and he’s dirt cheap on both sites. Love firing him in tournaments against the bad Giants.
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MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
-
- Corey Kluber (all formats)
- German Marquez (all formats)
- J.A. Happ (cash)
- Sean Newcomb (GPP)
- Jake Junis (GPP)
- Jaime Barria (GPP)
- Lucas Giolito (GPP, DK ONLY!!!)
QUICK PICK ON FANDUEL PITCHING TIER RANKS
TIER 1: Kluber, deGrom (WATCH WEATHER), Marquez, Happ
2: Junis, Giolito, Rodriquez, Minor
3: Barria, Arrieta, Williams
4: Newcomb, Gibson
Good Luck Everyone!